Point Projection Update 02/17/18 - The Final Week

[GateKeeperRefugee]

We've got a lot of movement and some games remaining, but here's what it looks like so far by my numbers (out of state opponents' win% included to the best of Google-ability):

1. Caravel 14x2 +1+2+1+1+2+2+2+2+2+2+1+2+2 50/18 = 2.7777
2. Conrad 16x2 +2+2+1+2+2+2+2+2+1+2 50/19 = 2.6315
3. Hodgson 18x2 +2+2+2+1+1+2+2+1+1+1 51/20 = 2.55
4. Sanford 16x2 +2+2+2+1+2+2+2+2 47/19 = 2.4736
5. St. E 15x2 +1+2+2+2+1+2+1+2 = 43/18 = 2.3888
6. Howard 15x2 +1+2+2+1+1+2+2+2+1+1 45/19 = 2.3684
7. Ursuline 9x2 +1+2+2+1+1+2+2+2+2+2+1+2+2+2 42/19 = 2.2105
8. Archmere 11x2 +1+2+1+2+1+1+2+1+2+2+2+2 41/19 = 2.1578
9. Sussex Tech 15x2 +1+1+1+2+2+1 38/18 = 2.111
10. Appo 11x2 +2+2+2+2+2+2+1+2+1+2 40/19 = 2.1052
11. St. Thomas More 12x2 +2+2+1+2+2+2 33/16 = 2.0625
12. Tatnall 14x2 +2+1+2+2+2 37/18 = 2.0555
13. Newark Charter 12x2 +2+2+2+1+2+1+2+2+1+2 39/19 = 2.05263
14. CR 13x2 +1+2+2+2+2+2+1 38/19 = 2.0000
15. Padua 14x2 +1+2+1+1+2+1+1+1 38/19 = 2.000
16. Wilmington Christian 14x2 +2+2+2+1+2+1 38/19 = 2.000
17. Delmarva Christian 16x2 +1+1+1+2 37/19 = 1.9473
18. Woodbridge 16x2 +1+1+1+1+2+2 38/20 = 1.9
19. Dickinson 14x2 +1+2+1 32/17 = 1.8823
20. Concord 9x2 +2+1+2+2+1+2+2+1+2+2+2 37/20 = 1.85
21. St. Georges 16x2 +1+1+2+1+1 35/19 = 1.8421
22. St. Mark’s 10x2 +1+2+2+2+2+2+1 32/18 = 1.7777
23. Delcastle 11x2 +2+2+1+1+2+2+1 33/19 = 1.7368
24. Mt. Pleasant 9x2 +2+2+2+1+1+1+2+2+2 33/19 = 1.7368
-----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
25. Sussex Central 9x2 +1+2+2+1+1+2+2+2+1+2 34/20 = 1.7
26. Laurel 10x2 +2+2+1 25/16 = 1.5625
27. Cape 9x2 +1+2+2+1+1+2+2 29/19 = 1.5263
28. Delmar 10x2 +2+2+2+1 27/18 = 1.5
29. Polytech 10x2 +1+1+2+2 26/18 = 1.4444

So if the playoffs started Monday, first round match-ups would be:

9 Sussex Tech vs 24 Mt. Pleasant
10 Appo vs 23 Delcastle
11 St. Thomas More vs 22 St. Mark's
12 Tatnall vs 21 St. Georges
13 Newark Charter vs 20 Concord
14 CR vs 19 Dickinson
15 Padua vs 18 Woodbridge
16 Wilmington Christian vs 17 Delmarva Christian

Top 8 seeds would be:

1 Caravel
2 Conrad
3 Hodgson
4 Sanford
5 St. E
6 Howard
7 Ursuline
8 Archmere

And as someone posted in an earlier thread, St. Thomas More only has 16 games and 18 is required to make the tournament, so if they aren't making two games up, you move them out and slide everyone up after Appo, which means the 1st round would be:

9 Sussex Tech vs. 24 Sussex Central
10 Appo vs 23 Mt. Pleasant
11 Tatnall vs 22 Delcastle
12 Newark Charter vs 21 St. Mark's
13 CR vs 20 St. Georges
14 Padua vs. 19 Concord
15 Wilmington Christian vs. 18 Dickinson
16 Delmarva Christian vs. 17 Woodbridge

 

[sportsguy725]

Appreciate the work

 

[COACH"D"]

What about Padua ???

 

[GateKeeperRefugee]

Changes made to include Padua. Thanks for the reminder.

 

[Simmonj4618]

STMA will be in tournament the rescheduled game that was postponed because of snow is this Wednesday and the game against Freire Charter School counts as a forfeit to bring the total to 18 games.

 

[GateKeeperRefugee]

Ah okay.

Tonight, there are three big games for tournament position to keep an eye on:

Laurel at Sussex Tech - if Tech wins out, they'll have a first round bye, Laurel needs to win 2 of its last 3 (3 games in 3 days, whew) to get in

Tatnall at Archmere - Archmere could get a bye with a win here, Tatnall gets to 15 wins with a win tonight and could possibly jump a couple of spots.

Caravel at Sanford - CA's already wrapped up the top seed, a win would give them 15 and a bonus point for their opponents. If Sanford wins, they would tie Hodgson for 3rd in the point index and likely by strength of schedule, would be the 3rd seed.

 

[Simmonj4618]

Teams may not schedule an opponent three (3) times during the regular season. EXCEPTION: If a team is in a four or
more team tournament and the progression bracket causes the team to play an opponent for a third time.

Depending on how they interpret the rules Dickerson should only get credit for playing McKean twice since the third game was not a tournament which caused them to play again. It should make no difference though they will pick up bonus points for playing St. Georges and for beating FSMA.

 

[GateKeeperRefugee]

Yeah, Dickinson's in regardless, but how they finish against FSMA and StG will determine where they play. I don't think they can make up enough ground for a home game.

 

[sportsguy725]

Teams may not schedule an opponent three (3) times during the regular season. EXCEPTION: If a team is in a four or
more team tournament and the progression bracket causes the team to play an opponent for a third time.

Depending on how they interpret the rules Dickerson should only get credit for playing McKean twice since the third game was not a tournament which caused them to play again. It should make no difference though they will pick up bonus points for playing St. Georges and for beating FSMA.

You can still get points if you play a team 3 times a season from what I believe. It mostly happens when teams in a conference that play twice a year also meet in a tournament. I’m sure they try to limit this from happening but it does happen sometimes

 

[Simmonj4618]

I think real winner and looser for positioning for favorable match-ups in the second round.

You can still get points if you play a team 3 times a season from what I believe. It mostly happens when teams in a conference that play twice a year also meet in a tournament. I’m sure they try to limit this from happening but it does happen sometimes

yea, but since the third games was a regular season game does that count?

 

[pksundevil]

Ah okay.

Tonight, there are three big games for tournament position to keep an eye on:

Laurel at Sussex Tech - if Tech wins out, they'll have a first round bye, Laurel needs to win 2 of its last 3 (3 games in 3 days, whew) to get in

Tatnall at Archmere - Archmere could get a bye with a win here, Tatnall gets to 15 wins with a win tonight and could possibly jump a couple of spots.

Caravel at Sanford - CA's already wrapped up the top seed, a win would give them 15 and a bonus point for their opponents. If Sanford wins, they would tie Hodgson for 3rd in the point index and likely by strength of schedule, would be the 3rd seed.

Sanford comes back to beat Caravel 42-40. Only allowed two points in the fourth quarter.

 

[pksundevil]

Archmere 46-32 over Tatnall.

 

[GateKeeperRefugee]

Depending on what Caravel and Tatnall do in their last games on Wednesday, those could be position moving wins for Sanford and Archmere.

Any one of the 5 best teams in the state (Caravel, Ursuline, Sanford, Conrad, St. E) could win the tournament. Can't wait for the brackets to come out on Friday.

 

[sportsguy725]

I think real winner and looser for positioning for favorable match-ups in the second round.



yea, but since the third games was a regular season game does that count?

I’m sure it does

 

[GateKeeperRefugee]

St. Andrew's at McKean - neither in contention, but if McKean wins, they'll finish the season with a .501 or better win percentage, which means Dickinson, Howard, Mt. Pleasant and Newark Charter will all get a point from playing them.

Mt. Pleasant at Middletown - Green Knights could be eliminated with a loss, a win might move them up a spot depending on what Dickinson does against St. G tomorrow.

CR at Conrad - Riders could steal a bye with a win, Red Wolves want to finish strong after a tough loss to St. E last Friday

Delcastle at Appo - Appo's already guaranteed a home game, Delcastle needs a win to most likely hold on to their tournament spot.

Laurel at Cape - 2nd of 3 games in 3 nights, Laurel needs to win to stay alive.

Padua at St. E - win for the Pandas gives them 15 on the season, a St E. win solidifies a top 5 seed for the Vikings.

Polytech at St. Mark's - Spartans win and they're in good shape. A loss could be devastating provided what other teams in their record/point range do today and tomorrow.

 

[GateKeeperRefugee]

Going to try to do one more points thread tonight/tomorrow morning before DIAA releases the real thing Friday afternoon, but there are a few more games tonight that should influence tournament position -

Howard at Caravel - Howard's already at 15 wins, but a win over Caravel would be a huge momentum boost. Bucs win gets them to 15 and an extra bonus point for their DE opponents (CA's already wrapped up the top seed by my calculations)

St. Georges at Dickinson - both teams already at 15 wins with very friendly schedules, so this 4 point win could mean the difference between a long bus ride and a not-so-long bus ride (St. Georges still has a shot at a home game - Dickinson does not)

Wilmington Christian at Tatnall - the winner gets to 15 wins, although both appear to be in good shape for a first round home game.

Sussex Tech at St. Mark's - Ravens could jump past Ursuline and/or Howard with a win, Spartans lock down a tourney spot with a win.

Laurel at Delmar - Laurel desperately needs a win here, although it might not be enough.

 

[pksundevil]

Thanks for all your work!

 

[DEGirlsBballFan]

Thank you for taking the time to calculate, you almost need a doctorate in math to figure it all out!