2020 Season Predictions

[ReturnOfTheGate]

Since we finally have the schedules figured out and hopefully no COVID positives, share your 2020 predictions and hot takes here.

I'll go first of course.

D1 tournament teams - Hodgson (Flight A winner), Smyrna (Henny North winner), Middletown and Sallies (at large)
D2 tournament teams - Howard (Flight B winner), Woodbridge (Henny South winner), Delmar and Tower Hill (at large)

D1 dark horses - Dover, St. Georges, Concord, Sussex Central
D2 dark horses - Lake Forest, Newark, A.I., St. Mark's, Friends

D1 championship game - Smyrna vs. Hodgson
D2 championship game - Howard vs. Woodbridge

 

[BackinBlack86]

?? Is Davis still at MT or did go to FLA I believe?

Nevermind I see he is in FLA.. Lake Minneola High

 

[ReturnOfTheGate]

?? Is Davis still at MT?

He's not and I know MTown lost a couple of other kids, but I don't know who else in Flight A or Henny North has a team tournament ready, hence the dark horses.

 

[BackinBlack86]

Since we finally have the schedules figured out and hopefully no COVID positives, share your 2020 predictions and hot takes here.

I'll go first of course.

D1 tournament teams - Hodgson (Flight A winner), Smyrna (Henny North winner), Middletown and Sallies (at large)
D2 tournament teams - Howard (Flight B winner), Woodbridge (Henny South winner), Delmar and Tower Hill (at large)

D1 dark horses - Dover, St. Georges, Concord, Sussex Central
D2 dark horses - Lake Forest, Newark, A.I., St. Mark's, Friends

D1 championship game - Smyrna vs. Hodgson
D2 championship game - Howard vs. Woodbridge

I agree with your conference winners.. I don't think Sallies or TH (even with the chickenhawk schedule) gets in at large. D1 at large will be Henny South runner up. Central or Dover which ever one beats Sallies. I am knocking Sallies out as I see maybe 3 losses for them at least 2 not sure if they will have enough BP's to get in with 2 losses but it will be close. I very well may come down to the Sallies v Central game week 6 as to who gets in. That would be fun. As for D2 I don't think either Silk Panty or CA will get in. It will be an undefeated team either the DCS winner or St Marks (kinda including St Mark in DSC this year) but DMA or Archmere ( they are due for their every third year or so team) could run the table..

The more I think on it Sals can get in with 2 losses but I believe the last D1 at large will come down to Sals, Dover and Central and they all play each other.. Sals still has to get by the two PA teams which are both a challenge for them as well as HVT and Smyrna.. I just don't see it for Sals.. I see at least 3 losses maybe 4 not including Dover or Central..

 

[BackinBlack86]

I guess the other thing we have to keep in mind is bonus points will have a larger effect when dividing by 7 instead of 10..

6x7 42 + 5 bp 47 by 7 = 6.714 index
6x10 60 + 5 bp 65 by 10 = 6.5 index

5 bp by 7 = .714
5 bp by 10 = .5

Works the same for D1 vs D2 points as well.... which are also( in effect) bonus points if your D2 or minus bonus points if your D1

 

[First_state_gridiron]

For Sallies 2 out of state opponents are they D1 or D2?

 

[TruthSerum1]

I thought that both Sallies games in PA were vs teams that DE considers D2. If that is the case how could they make the top 4 to make it to the to tournament if all the other top D1 teams are only playing other D1 teams?

 

[BackinBlack86]

I thought that both Sallies games in PA were vs teams that DE considers D2. If that is the case how could they make the top 4 to make it to the to tournament if all the other top D1 teams are only playing other D1 teams?

D1 cut off is 1045

MP all boys about 650 to 675 ( 6-12) aprrox 500- 520 high school.. all boys doubler.. around 1000-1040.. D2
Lansdale Catholic.. 650- 700 co ed.. D2

 

[BackinBlack86]

I thought that both Sallies games in PA were vs teams that DE considers D2. If that is the case how could they make the top 4 to make it to the to tournament if all the other top D1 teams are only playing other D1 teams?

Good point didn't look at that.. furthers my belief Sals won't make it.. will have to win 6 games to have a shot

 

[BackinBlack86]

Lets do more math. woo hoo..

First its pretty much a given if Sals loses to either PA team they won't make it even if they go
6-1 (losing to a D2) 6,6,6,6,6,4,0 = 34
5-2 (losing to 1 D2) 6,6,6,6,4,1,0 =29

So lets assume Sals wins both PA games..
7-0- 6,6,6,6,6,4,4 = 38
6-1- 6,6,6,6,4,4,1 = 33
5-2- 6,6,6,4,4,1,1 = 28

D1 team playing all D1's
7-0- 6,6,6,6,6,6,6= 42
6-1 - 6,6,6,6,6,6,1= 37
5-2- 6,6,6,6,6,1,1= 32

6-1 Sals could lose out to 5-2 team if that team has 2 more bp's than them...

But Sals plays most the teams we would be talking about

Bottom line Sals needs to beat both PA teams and win 4 of this 5 (HVT, Smyrna, Dover, Central and St G)

 

[First_state_gridiron]

Would they be better off not playing the PA teams and a 5 game schedule (assuming they win all 5??

 

[BackinBlack86]

Would they be better off not playing the PA teams and a 5 game schedule (assuming they win all 5??

no... the PA teams are very beatable for them just not a given.. HVT , Smyrna probably better than the PA teams... .. they are better off playing the games.. otherwise they probably would be stuck with just 5 games the chances of play-offs don't increase by not playing them.. Put it this way if they can beat all 5 DE teams on their schedule than the two PA teams should be no problem.. They will need the win points even if its four each plus both those teams may win 5 for bonus.. No way would I trade two games for my kids just in hope of going 5-0..

forget 5-0 vs DE teams probably not happening.. so let's look at 4-1 vs 6-1 D1's only

6,6,6,6,1 = 25 by 5 is 5.0 index
6,6,6,6,6,6,1 = 37 by 7 is 5.2 index

I have said it before the idea of scheduling 9 games over 10 is only an advantage if you are certain the 10th game would be a loss...no reason to screw your kids out of a game.. It's stupid...

A win is always worth more than not playing whether its 4 or 6 points..

Here's another thing.. let's say you have 2 D1 teams undefeated vs all D1 opponents.. well the index will be six so its a tie.. however the team that plays 7 vs one that pays 5 will have two more teams for bonus point opportunities which would break the tie if one hits

 

[BackinBlack86]

It's always fun to look back on these. Although we didn't have many this year. Ole BiB was on top of a couple things.. 🤠



"I agree with your conference winners.. I don't think Sallies or TH (even with the chickenhawk schedule) gets in at large. D1 at large will be Henny South runner up. Central or Dover which ever one beats Sallies. I am knocking Sallies out as I see maybe 3 losses for them at least 2 not sure if they will have enough BP's to get in with 2 losses but it will be close. I very well may come down to the Sallies v Central game week 6 as to who gets in. That would be fun. As for D2 I don't think either Silk Panty or CA will get in. It will be an undefeated team either the DCS winner or St Marks (kinda including St Mark in DSC this year) but DMA or Archmere ( they are due for their every third year or so team) could run the table..

The more I think on it Sals can get in with 2 losses but I believe the last D1 at large will come down to Sals, Dover and Central and they all play each other.. Sals still has to get by the two PA teams which are both a challenge for them as well as HVT and Smyrna.. I just don't see it for Sals.. I see at least 3 losses maybe 4 not including Dover or Central.. "

 

[BackinBlack86]

@ReturnOfTheGate 's.. good picks bolded..



D1 tournament teams - Hodgson (Flight A winner), Smyrna (Henny North winner), Middletown and Sallies (at large)
D2 tournament teams - Howard (Flight B winner), Woodbridge (Henny South winner), Delmar and Tower Hill (at large)

D1 dark horses - Dover, St. Georges, Concord, Sussex Central
D2 dark horses - Lake Forest, Newark, A.I., St. Mark's, Friends

D1 championship game - Smyrna vs. Hodgson
D2 championship game - Howard vs. Woodbridge "

 

[ReturnOfTheGate]

@ReturnOfTheGate 's.. good picks bolded..



D1 tournament teams - Hodgson (Flight A winner), Smyrna (Henny North winner), Middletown and Sallies (at large)
D2 tournament teams - Howard (Flight B winner), Woodbridge (Henny South winner), Delmar and Tower Hill (at large)

D1 dark horses - Dover, St. Georges, Concord, Sussex Central
D2 dark horses - Lake Forest, Newark, A.I., St. Mark's, Friends

D1 championship game - Smyrna vs. Hodgson
D2 championship game - Howard vs. Woodbridge "

Crazy part was I wanted so bad to pick Red Lion as a dark horse because I liked what I saw last year, but I went with a standby in Friends and had no idea they were having roster troubles.

 

[BackinBlack86]

Crazy part was I wanted so bad to pick Red Lion as a dark horse because I liked what I saw last year, but I went with a standby in Friends and had no idea they were having roster troubles.

Well I am sure you weren't privy at that time of the 2020 additions at RL either lol

 

[ReturnOfTheGate]

Well I am sure you weren't privy at that time of the 2020 additions at RL either lol

Definitely wasn't. That game on Friday at the Ab should be interesting.

 

[MightyMik]

Howard with running clock

 

[BackinBlack86]

Howard with running clock

Charter fans would be like..