This post will present a projection of the final D2 standings based off of the projected winners from the Ratings for each team from MaxPreps for all the remaining meaningful games. To clarify, winners for each game are projected based off their relative power ratings as listed on MaxPreps and then the results are used to calculate a final points index for each team. These are not my predictions for the final playoff teams/seedings, they are projections only.
With that said, let's get to the results (Note: Tower Hill will not be participating in the playoffs and St. Mark's needs a lot of help to get in so they are both left off of this analysis).
1) Archmere is projected to have a 4.71 index and be the 1st seed.
2) Howard is projected to win Flight B with a 4.5 index and be the 2nd seed.
3) Red Lion is projected to have a 4.0 index and be the 3rd seed based off of winning the first tie breaker of Most Opponent Wins over Delmar and Woodbridge (Red Lion 19, Delmar 14, Woodbridge 12).
4) Either Woodbridge or Delmar is projected to win the Henlopen South. Whoever wins the Henlopen South will be the fourth seed based off of losing the first tie breaker of Most Opponent Wins to Red Lion (Red Lion 19, Delmar 14, Woodbridge 12).
The projected final record, bonus points, points index, opponent wins, and opponent losses for all teams still in contention are listed below.
Howard is projected to win it's final two games for a 6-0 record and 4.5 points index:
Current Points: 16 (Newark 4, Brandywine 4, Glasgow 4, AI 4, McKean 4)
Howard favored over Appo by 14.7 for 6 points
Howard favored over Dickinson by 79.9 for 4 points
1 BP from Brandywine
Points Index: (16+6+4+1)/6=4.5
Opponent Wins/Losses: 18/26
Archmere is projected to win it's final two games for a 7-0 record and 4.71 points index:
Current Points: 22 (St. Elizabeth 4, Red Lion 4, FSMA 4, St. Mark's 4, Charter 6)
Archmere favored over DMA by 8.9 for 4 points
Archmere favored over Conrad by 23.9 for 4 points
3 BPs: 2 from St. Mark's, 1 from Red Lion
Points Index: (22+4+4+3)/7=4.71
Opponent Wins/Losses: 19/26
Delmar is projected to win it's final two games for a 4-1 record and 4.0 points index:
Current Points: 11 (Seaford 4, CR 1, Milford 6)
Delmar favored over IR by 13.6 for 4 points
Delmar favored over Laurel by 0.3 for 4 points
1 BP from CR
Points Index: (11+4+4+1)/5=4.0
Opponent Wins/Losses: 14/17
Woodbridge is projected to win it's final two games for a 5-0 record and 4.0 points index:
Current Points: 12 (Lake 4, IR 4, Seaford 4)
Woodbridge favored over Laurel by 17.6 for 4 points
Woodbridge favored over Caravel by 25.8 for 4 points
0 BPs
Points Index: (12+4+4)/5=4.0
Opponent Wins/Losses: 12/20
Red Lion is projected to win it's final two games for a 5-1 record and 4.0 points index:
Current Points: 14 (Charter 6, Caravel 4, Conrad 4).
Red Lion favored over Brandywine in Week 6 by 8.9 for 4 points.
Red Lion favored over St. Elizabeth in Week 7 by 25.0 for 4 points
2 BPs from Archmere
Points Index: (14+4+4+2)/6=4.0
Opponent Wins/Losses: 19/22
DMA is projected to lose it's final two games for a 4-2 record and 3.71 points index:
Current Points: 18 (FSMA 4, St. Elizabeth 4, Conrad 4, Charter 6)
Archmere favored over DMA by 8.9 for 0 points
St. Mark's favored over DMA by 5.1 for 0 points
4 BPs: 2 from Archmere, 2 from St. Mark's
Points Index: (18+4)/6=3.66
Opponent Wins/Losses: 18/23
A lot can still happen to change these projections of course. I'll list scenarios for Delmar and DMA in the comments below, but Woodbridge, Howard and Red Lion are pretty straightforward:
Woodbridge needs to win the Henlopen South or they are out unless Red Lion loses to St. Elizabeth, which is not likely (Red Lion is favored by 25).
If Howard loses to Appo they will drop to a 3.67 index and drop to 4th seed. Howard isn't losing to Dickinson but, if by some miracle they do lose to Appo and Dickinson, Newark or Christiana would be the Flight B winner and be 4th seed.
The only thing that could help Red Lion is St. Elizabeth beating St. Mark's in Week 6 or Brandywine beating Newark in Week 7, which would give Red Lion an addition Opponent Win for any potential tie breakers, but they almost certainly won't need the additional Oppo Wins.
With that said, let's get to the results (Note: Tower Hill will not be participating in the playoffs and St. Mark's needs a lot of help to get in so they are both left off of this analysis).
1) Archmere is projected to have a 4.71 index and be the 1st seed.
2) Howard is projected to win Flight B with a 4.5 index and be the 2nd seed.
3) Red Lion is projected to have a 4.0 index and be the 3rd seed based off of winning the first tie breaker of Most Opponent Wins over Delmar and Woodbridge (Red Lion 19, Delmar 14, Woodbridge 12).
4) Either Woodbridge or Delmar is projected to win the Henlopen South. Whoever wins the Henlopen South will be the fourth seed based off of losing the first tie breaker of Most Opponent Wins to Red Lion (Red Lion 19, Delmar 14, Woodbridge 12).
The projected final record, bonus points, points index, opponent wins, and opponent losses for all teams still in contention are listed below.
Howard is projected to win it's final two games for a 6-0 record and 4.5 points index:
Current Points: 16 (Newark 4, Brandywine 4, Glasgow 4, AI 4, McKean 4)
Howard favored over Appo by 14.7 for 6 points
Howard favored over Dickinson by 79.9 for 4 points
1 BP from Brandywine
Points Index: (16+6+4+1)/6=4.5
Opponent Wins/Losses: 18/26
Archmere is projected to win it's final two games for a 7-0 record and 4.71 points index:
Current Points: 22 (St. Elizabeth 4, Red Lion 4, FSMA 4, St. Mark's 4, Charter 6)
Archmere favored over DMA by 8.9 for 4 points
Archmere favored over Conrad by 23.9 for 4 points
3 BPs: 2 from St. Mark's, 1 from Red Lion
Points Index: (22+4+4+3)/7=4.71
Opponent Wins/Losses: 19/26
Delmar is projected to win it's final two games for a 4-1 record and 4.0 points index:
Current Points: 11 (Seaford 4, CR 1, Milford 6)
Delmar favored over IR by 13.6 for 4 points
Delmar favored over Laurel by 0.3 for 4 points
1 BP from CR
Points Index: (11+4+4+1)/5=4.0
Opponent Wins/Losses: 14/17
Woodbridge is projected to win it's final two games for a 5-0 record and 4.0 points index:
Current Points: 12 (Lake 4, IR 4, Seaford 4)
Woodbridge favored over Laurel by 17.6 for 4 points
Woodbridge favored over Caravel by 25.8 for 4 points
0 BPs
Points Index: (12+4+4)/5=4.0
Opponent Wins/Losses: 12/20
Red Lion is projected to win it's final two games for a 5-1 record and 4.0 points index:
Current Points: 14 (Charter 6, Caravel 4, Conrad 4).
Red Lion favored over Brandywine in Week 6 by 8.9 for 4 points.
Red Lion favored over St. Elizabeth in Week 7 by 25.0 for 4 points
2 BPs from Archmere
Points Index: (14+4+4+2)/6=4.0
Opponent Wins/Losses: 19/22
DMA is projected to lose it's final two games for a 4-2 record and 3.71 points index:
Current Points: 18 (FSMA 4, St. Elizabeth 4, Conrad 4, Charter 6)
Archmere favored over DMA by 8.9 for 0 points
St. Mark's favored over DMA by 5.1 for 0 points
4 BPs: 2 from Archmere, 2 from St. Mark's
Points Index: (18+4)/6=3.66
Opponent Wins/Losses: 18/23
A lot can still happen to change these projections of course. I'll list scenarios for Delmar and DMA in the comments below, but Woodbridge, Howard and Red Lion are pretty straightforward:
Woodbridge needs to win the Henlopen South or they are out unless Red Lion loses to St. Elizabeth, which is not likely (Red Lion is favored by 25).
If Howard loses to Appo they will drop to a 3.67 index and drop to 4th seed. Howard isn't losing to Dickinson but, if by some miracle they do lose to Appo and Dickinson, Newark or Christiana would be the Flight B winner and be 4th seed.
The only thing that could help Red Lion is St. Elizabeth beating St. Mark's in Week 6 or Brandywine beating Newark in Week 7, which would give Red Lion an addition Opponent Win for any potential tie breakers, but they almost certainly won't need the additional Oppo Wins.
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