2020 Week 7 D2 Playoff Projections

[Titanium Shadow]

This post will present a projection of the final D2 standings based off of the projected winners from the Ratings for each team from MaxPreps for all the remaining meaningful games. To clarify, winners for each game are projected based off their relative power ratings as listed on MaxPreps and then the results are used to calculate a final points index for each team. These are not my predictions for the final playoff teams/seedings, they are projections only.

With that said, let's get to the results (Note: Tower Hill will not be participating in the playoffs and St. Mark's needs a lot of help to get in so they are both left off of this analysis).

1) Archmere is projected to have a 4.71 index and be the 1st seed.
2) Howard is projected to win Flight B with a 4.5 index and be the 2nd seed.
3) Red Lion is projected to have a 4.0 index and be the 3rd seed based off of winning the first tie breaker of Most Opponent Wins over Delmar and Woodbridge (Red Lion 19, Delmar 15, Woodbridge 13).
4) Either Woodbridge or Delmar is projected to win the Henlopen South. Whoever wins the Henlopen South will be the fourth seed based off of losing the first tie breaker of Most Opponent Wins to Red Lion (Red Lion 19, Delmar 15, Woodbridge 13).

The projected final record, bonus points, points index, opponent wins, and opponent losses for all teams still in contention are listed below.

Archmere has clinched a playoff spot.
Archmere is projected to win it's final game for a 7-0 record and 4.71 points index:
Current Points: 26 (St. Elizabeth 4, Red Lion 4, FSMA 4, St. Mark's 4, Charter 6, DMA 6)
Archmere favored over Conrad by 24.4 for 4 points
3 BPs: 2 from St. Mark's, 1 from Red Lion
Points Index: (26+4+3)/7=4.71
Opponent Wins/Losses: 20/26

Howard has clinched Flight B and a playoff spot.
Howard is projected to win it's final game for a 6-0 record and 4.5 points index:
Current Points: 22 (Newark 4, Brandywine 4, Glasgow 4, AI 4, McKean 4, Appo 6)
Howard favored over Dickinson by 84.2 for 4 points
1 BP from Brandywine
Points Index: (22+4+1)/6=4.5
Opponent Wins/Losses: 18/26

Red Lion is projected to win it's final two games for a 5-1 record and 4.0 points index:
Current Points: 14 (Charter 6, Caravel 4, Conrad 4).
Red Lion favored over Brandywine in Week 6 by 12 for 4 points.
Red Lion favored over St. Elizabeth in Week 7 by 25.5 for 4 points
2 BPs from Archmere
Points Index: (14+4+4+2)/6=4.0
Opponent Wins/Losses: 19/22

Delmar is projected to win it's final game for a 4-1 record and 4.0 points index:
Current Points: 15 (Seaford 4, CR 1, Milford 6, IR 4)
Delmar favored over Laurel by 1.3 for 4 points
1 BP from CR
Points Index: (15+4+1)/5=4.0
Opponent Wins/Losses: 15/17

Woodbridge is projected to win it's final game for a 5-0 record and 4.0 points index:
Current Points: 16 (Lake 4, IR 4, Seaford 4, Laurel 4)
Woodbridge favored over Caravel by 21.5 for 4 points
0 BPs
Points Index: (16+4)/5=4.0
Opponent Wins/Losses: 13/20

DMA is projected to lose it's final game for a 4-2 record and 3.67 points index:
Current Points: 18 (FSMA 4, St. Elizabeth 4, Conrad 4, Charter 6)
St. Mark's favored over DMA by 5.9 for 0 points
4 BPs: 2 from Archmere, 2 from St. Mark's
Points Index: (18+4)/6=3.67
Opponent Wins/Losses: 18/23

Playoff Scenarios:
Delmar:

1) Beat Laurel and win the tie breaker (as yet unannounced) with Woodbridge for the Henlopen South title.​

2) Beat Laurel and CR beats Smyrna.​

3) Beat Laurel, St. Mark's beats DMA, and Red Lion loses to either Brandywine or St. Elizabeth.​

4) Note: If Opponent wins/losses are indexed, an additional scenario is possible. Indexing of Opponent wins/losses has not been discussed and there is no indication it will be discussed. I'm just including it so people don't have to ask.​

All the favorites win as projected plus one upset.​

Favorites projected to win:​

Delmar beats Laurel (Delmar favored by 0.3).​

St. Mark's beats DMA (St. Mark's favored by 5.1).​

Woodbridge beats Caravel (Woodbridge favored by 17.6).​

Seaford beats Ploytech (Seaford favored by 0.1).​

Newark beats Brandywine (Newark favored by 6.8).​

​

And one of the following upsets:​

IR beating Lake (Lake favored by 5.5).​

Milford beating Sussex Central (Central favored by 17.7).​

FSMA beating Charter (Charter favored by 4.5).​

​

This would give Delmar equal indexed Opponent Wins with Red Lion, and would make them the 3rd seed (regardless if they win the Henlopen South or not) based off of winning the second tie breaker of least indexed Opponent Losses with Red lion and the first tie breaker of most indexed Opponent Wins over Woodbridge.​

​

Red Lion:

1) Beat Brandywine and St. Elizabeth, St. Mark's beats DMA, and either Smyrna beats CR or Laurel beats Delmar.​

Woodbridge:

1) Win the tie breaker (as yet unannounced) with Delmar for the Henlopen South title or Delmar loses to Laurel to win the Henlopen South outright.​

​

DMA:

1) Beat St. Mark's.​

2) Red Lion loses to either Brandywine or St. Elizabeth and the loser of the Henlopen South loses (Delmar to Laurel or Woodbridge to Caravel).​

 

[Titanium Shadow]

In short, Archmere and Howard are in.

DMA controls it's own destiny but are projected to miss the playoffs.

Red Lion needs help but are projected to get in.

One of Woodbridge/Delmar is guaranteed to get in:

Woodbridge can only get in if they win the Henlopen South.​

​

Delmar can get in with help or by winning the Henlopen South.​

 

[Uncle Bumfuzzled]

Great work, TS. Thanks for your efforts.

 

[BackinBlack86]

I think I would much rather have the 4 seed than the 3rd... just saying..

 

[Shine bright like a diamond]

Archmere looks to get the 1 seed. If things play out...... Woodbridge in the first round. Then, if they win, a big IF, then Howard. The 1 seed has a tough road this year.

 

[ReturnOfTheGate]

Archmere looks to get the 1 seed. If things play out...... Woodbridge in the first round. Then, if they win, a big IF, then Howard. The 1 seed has a tough road this year.

Maybe Bummy's bus ride curse will do Archmere a favor where the Bridge is concerned.

Still, a Howard/WB rematch considering how close last year's title game would be poetic.

 

[BackinBlack86]

Let's look at if WB and DM didn't have the games cancelled.. I am pretty sure the consensus is Howard and WB are clearly the two best D2 teams this year.. The polls have shown that much as well as the eye test.. so let's assume WB runs the table

WB 7-0 30+1bp 31 or 4.42 ( 3 seed)

Would meet Howard in Semi's and two DSC (Archmere v DMA or RLCA) teams would meet in the other..

 

[Uncle Bumfuzzled]

Maybe Bummy's bus ride curse will do Archmere a favor where the Bridge is concerned.

Still, a Howard/WB rematch considering how close last year's title game would be poetic.

Forgot all about that one. I think there was a point a few years back where the Sals had lost like 5-6 in a row when they travelled over 50 miles. It’s funny how nonsense can become real stuff....

 

[BackinBlack86]

Maybe Bummy's bus ride curse will do Archmere a favor where the Bridge is concerned.

Still, a Howard/WB rematch considering how close last year's title game would be poetic.

Pretty sure all the play-off game sites for football will be determined by the committee this year. I assume they will be at the larger venues as to get some fans (gate) in. AB, Caravel, Dover, Smyrna, Cape etc...

Item 2. Game Sites...

A. The game sites will be determined by the committee.
B. Operations will be based on the host site facility plan.
C. The Committee will select the site for the Championship game in each division. This may be played as a doubleheader.
D. The Committee reserves the right to select the site and determine the starting time for all tournament games.