D2 play-off picture week 8

[BackinBlack86]

Complete..

1. Tower Hill – 28+4=32 ( @ chris ,Friends) 9
1. Woodbridge – 28+4= 32( IR,Lake, @DM)
3. Howard – 23+4 = 27 +1bp 28 ( AI, dick, glasgow)
4. Caravel - 24+1=25+1bp 26 ( @ silver oak, DMA, St E)
4. Lake Forest - 22+4=26 ( laurel, @WB, @milf* )
4. A.I. Dupont – 22+4=26 ( @Howard, Bwine,@McKean)
7. DMA – 25+0=25 ( @FSMA, @CA, @ conrad)
7. Delmar – 21+4=25 (seaf, @laurel, WB)

St. Marks -19+4=23 ( @Kennett*, glass, Sals* )
Archmere - 18+4=22+1bp 23 ( RLCA, @Charter*, FSMA)
Friends- 16+4=20+1bp 21 (St A, @TH) 9
RLCA- 16+4=20 ( @Arch, Seaf, Charter*)

TH and Friends bye week is week 9 for both.. will go to index week 9 for them

 

[Titanium Shadow]

I'm going to wait until today's games are over before I update my calculations, but there is actually a not unlikely scenario where 5 teams (Archmere, Delmar, Friends, Caravel and Lake) all end up with a 4.0 point index and tied for the 4-8 playoff spots. That would be an interesting tiebreaker.

 

[BackinBlack86]

BP's

OOS-

ANC 7 wins
Kennett (PA) 8 wins (St Marks next week)
Episcopal Academy 7 wins

In State

HVT- 7wins
TH- 7 wins
WB- 7 wins

 

[Titanium Shadow]

I'll post a more detailed analysis later, but the D2 picture is looking like the following:

Assumptions: Woodbridge wins out, Friends beats Tower Hill, all teams win games not mentioned. None of the teams giving bonus points to the teams listed loses in a major upset.
1. Woodbridge, Tower Hill, Delmar, Archemere and Friends are in.
2. Lake is in if they beat Milford and out if they lose.
3. The winner of the Howard/AI game is in. The loser is in if Lake loses to Milford.
4. The winner of the Caravel/DMA game is in. The loser is out.

 

[BackinBlack86]

Although unlikely.. It could get real interesting if St Marks could find a way to beat Kennett next week. That would be a 7pt win and catapult them to 30pts. Assuming they beat Glasgow and lose to Sals plus 1pt bonus for DMA they could post a 36

Kennett is 8-1 but they play a fairly weak PA schedule..Kennett rating (ranking) 20.5 (2636) St Marks 7.3 (5112) but you never know lol at worse it's a 3 pt loss and they post a 32

ehhh upon further review 36 won't be enough

 

[Titanium Shadow]

Although unlikely.. It could get real interesting if St Marks could find a way to beat Kennett next week. That would be a 7pt win and catapult them to 30pts. Assuming they beat Glasgow and lose to Sals plus 1pt bonus for DMA they could post a 36

Kennett is 8-1 but they play a fairly weak PA schedule..Kennett rating (ranking) 20.5 (2636) St Marks 7.3 (5112) but you never know lol at worse it's a 3 pt loss and they post a 32

ehhh upon further review 36 won't be enough

I looked at that too BIB. St. Mark's would have to beat Kennett and the Sallies to make it in. Not likely.

 

[BackinBlack86]

yeah I am figuring St M and RLCA will get bounced off the list next week and Archmere is likely to take AI's spot in the top 8...

 

[Titanium Shadow]

Assuming every team wins the games they are favored to win by looking at MaxPreps and Massey ratings (a big if), the final D2 playoff seeding will be:

Place : Team : Points/Game : Final Record : Final Points : Bonus Points : Total Points : Opponent Wins : Bonus Point Teams
1. Woodbridge : 4.9 : 10-0 : 44 : 5 : 49 : 49 :
Caraval 1, Friends 1, Archmere 1, Lake 1, Delmar 1
2. Tower Hill : 4.22 : 8-1 : 36 : 2 : 38 : 33 : Friends 1, Red Lion 1
3. Howard : 4.2 : 9-1 : 39 : 3 : 42 : 44 : Hodgson 2, A.I. Dupont 1
4. Delmar : 4.0 : 7-3 : 33 : 7 : 40 : 58 : St. Mary's 1, Parkside 2, Friends 1, Lake Forest 1, Woodbridge 2
5. Archmere : 4.0 : 8-2 : 36 : 4 : 40 : 49 : Woodbridge 2, DMA 1, Red Lion 1
6. Caravel : 4.0 : 8-2 : 37 : 3 : 40 : 47 : Woodbridge 2, DMA 1
7. Lake Forest : 4.0 : 8-2 : 36 : 4 : 40 : 40 : Friends 1, Delmar 1, Woodbridge 2
8. Friends : 3.89 : 7-2 : 28 : 7 : 35 : 57 : A.I. Dupont 1, Woodbridge 2, Lake Forest 1, Delmar 1, New Church 1, Tower Hill 1

9. A.I. DuPont : 3.7 : 8-2 : 34 : 3 : 37 : 36 : Friends 1, Howard 2
10. DMA : 3.6 : 7-3 : 33 : 3 : 36 : 46 : Red Lion 1, Archmere 1, Caravel 1

Win/Loss Assumptions:
1. Woodbridge: Wins out
2. Tower Hill: Only lose to Friends
3. Howard: Wins out
4. Delmar: Only lose to Woodbridge
5: Archmere: Wins out
6. Caravel: Wins out
7. Lake: Only lose to Woodbridge
8. Friends: Wins out
9. AI: Only lose to Howard
10. DMA: Only lose to Caravel

Bonus point assumptions:
1. Woodbridge: All their BPs are pretty much a lock.
2. Tower Hill: All their BPs are pretty much a lock.
3. Howard: All their BPs are pretty much a lock.
4. Delmar: Parkside is a lock to give 1 BP and for their first playoff game it looks like they will be matched up against Rising Sun at home, a game they should easily win, to give 2 BPs. The rest are pretty much a lock. If Parkside only gives 1 BP, Delmar would be knocked down to the 7th seed with a 3.9 index.
5. Archmere: All their BPs are pretty much a lock.
6. Caravel: All their BPs are pretty much a lock.
7. Lake: All their BPs are pretty much a lock.
8. Friends: All their BPs are pretty much a lock. There is a chance New Church gives 2 BPs instead of 1, which would put Friends at a 4.0 index and put them in the 4th seed with 58 Opponent Wins and the head-to-head over Delmar, knocking everybody else down a seed.
9. AI: All their BPs are pretty much a lock.
10. DMA: All their BPs are pretty much a lock.

Key Games:
1. Lake/Milford: If Lake loses to Milford, they are out.
3. Howard/AI: The winner is in. The loser is in if Lake loses to Milford.
4. Caravel/DMA :The winner is in. The loser is out.
5. Friends/Tower Hill: Friends is out if they lose (not likely in my opinion). Tower Hill is in win or lose.

 

[BackinBlack86]

nevermind the last number threw me but I see what you did now

 

[Titanium Shadow]

I'm confused by you numbers? not adding up

The last number is Opponent Wins, not total points. I modified it to show total points before Oppo Wins.

 

[Titanium Shadow]

Brandywine's loss this week means they won't give a BP and knocked Howard from the second to the third seed.

 

[BackinBlack86]

Putting the computer ratings aside there are couple games I am not so certain of

1. AI v Howard.. we really don't have much to go on as to who is better. They both played crap schedules and I guess the thing that may push popular opinion to Howard is they played within two TD's of HVT but I see this game as a potential battle

2. Lake vs Milford. I really see Milford gettin up for this game at home. "Battle of the Bell' A chance to knock Lake out.. Depending on how Lake looks vs WB I am probably taking Milford in this one. Hell I don't think it is a slam dunk Lake beats Laurel.

3. Delmar v WB.. I think Delmar at home will slow down WB rushing game. They know it well. They will force WB to throw to beat them. That is where Ricky Kane may make the difference at WR.. Still going to be a great game but Delmar does have the coaching advantage.

4. Projecting 3 weeks worth of opponent wins off the comp ratings is fools gold. lol The only certain thing is those won't be the numbers in the end. IMHO but yeah it's what you have to go on for now

 

[Titanium Shadow]

I agree with you BIB. Computer rankings are much better at predicting the past then the future. They can never get the intangibles.

1. AI/Howard: I completely agree with your assessment.

2. Lake/Milford: Again, agreed. A lot of intangibles the computer rankings will never catch on this game. And with how Laurel played Woodbridge this week, I don't think Lake beating Laurel is a lock either.

3. Delmar/Woodbridge: I didn't list this game because both teams will make the playoffs win or lose. I agree that Delmar has a chance to beat Woodbridge at home.

4. Definitely going to be some upsets from the computer rankings. Just this week we saw Caravel, DMA and Brandywine lose when they were all favored in both the computer rankings.

 

[BackinBlack86]

What's funny is. If Milf beats Lake that would put AI in at 8 and Friends at 7.. Friends would play TH and have the opportunity to knock TH out for the third straight year lol

 

[ReturnOfTheGate]

What's funny is. If Milf beats Lake that would put AI in at 8 and Friends at 7.. Friends would play TH and have the opportunity to knock TH out for the third straight year lol

That would be very interesting...

 

[delawarenole]

Brandywine's loss this week means they won't give a BP and knocked Howard from the second to the third seed.

that really screws Caravel - Howard instead of Tower Hill. BIG difference

 

[Titanium Shadow]

that really screws Caravel - Howard instead of Tower Hill. BIG difference

I can see how it screws Howard, but how does it screw Caravel delawarenole?

 

[BackinBlack86]

Caravel screwed themselves losing to Concord

 

[Titanium Shadow]

Just to show how difficult it is to predict what will happen this far out, consider the following scenarios:

1. All assumptions listed in my post above are true except St. Mary's is upset in one of their final two games and Parkside loses their first playoff game. That would make Delmar the 8th seed.

2. All assumptions listed in my post above are true except Delmar beats Woodbridge and Easton wins their first playoff game. That would make Delmar the 1st seed.

Only a two game difference in both cases.

You could do the same thing for any of the teams.

 

[Chill44]

Concord may be a sleeper... 13-6 loss to Woodbridge.... beat Caravel...

 

[Chill44]

By sleeper I mean, could upset some ppl these next couple weeks... not a championship contender lol

 

[ReturnOfTheGate]

Funny thing is Brandywine could conceivably still beat AI and McKean and finish 7-3. Still, trying to predict three weeks with all the variables on the table are going to be tough. Delmar could beat Woodbridge and throw a serious monkey wrench into all of this. Tower Hill could beat Friends and be the most tenuous top seed of all time.

As the great Chris Berman likes to say - that's...why they play the games.

 

[delawarenole]

I can see how it screws Howard, but how does it screw Caravel delawarenole?

probavly screws both - both though they had an easier game and now they play first round.

personally I think the winner of this game plays WB for title

 

[delawarenole]

Caravel screwed themselves losing to Concord

True

 

[delawarenole]

Just to show how difficult it is to predict what will happen this far out, consider the following scenarios:

1. All assumptions listed in my post above are true except St. Mary's is upset in one of their final two games and Parkside loses their first playoff game. That would make Delmar the 8th seed.

2. All assumptions listed in my post above are true except Delmar beats Woodbridge and Easton wins their first playoff game. That would make Delmar the 1st seed.

Only a two game difference in both cases.

You could do the same thing for any of the teams.

crazy. A lot of football left