D2 playoff pict. week 9

[BackinBlack86]

Complete

1. Tower Hill (8-0)– 36 ( @ bye, Friends) 9
1. Woodbridge (8-0) – 36 ( Lake, @DM)
3. Howard (7-1) – 31+1bp= 32 ( dick, glasgow)
4. Delmar (6-2)– 29+2bp=31 (@laurel, WB)
5. Caravel (6-2) - 29+1bp= 30 ( DMA, St E)
5. Lake Forest (7-1)- 30 ( @WB, @milf* )
7. DMA (6-2)– 29 ( @CA, @ conrad)
8. A.I. Dupont (6-2) – 26+1bp= 27 ( Bwine,@McKean)
8. Archmere (6-2) - 26+1bp=27 ( @Charter*, FSMA)
8. Friends (6-2)- 24+3bp=27 ( bye, @TH) 9

St. Marks (5-3) -24+2bp=26 ( glass, Sals* )
RLCA (5-3)- 20+1bp=21 ( seaf, Charter*)
Conrad (5-3)- 20 ( St A, DMA)

TH and Friends bye week is week 9 for both.. will go to index after week 9 for them

BP's
OOS

ANC 7 wins
Kennett (PA) 9 wins
Episcopal Academy 8 wins
Parkside 7 wins

In State

HVT- 8 wins
TH- 7 wins
WB- 8 wins
Central 7 wins
Lake 7 wins
Middletown 7 wins
Howard 7 wins

 

[BackinBlack86]

complete

 

[Titanium Shadow]

I'll post a detailed analysis tomorrow, but other than some opponent win numbers being different (unsurprisingly), nothing has changed from last week except that we now know the result of the Howard/AI game.

 

[BackinBlack86]

* Corrected Friends has 3 bp's.. ANC, WB, Lake.. Log jam for the 8 spot

 

[BackinBlack86]

OOS Bp situation

Glenelg (5-3) (Smyrna) @Long Reach(3-5), Play-off game
St Marys (6-3) (Delmar) @ Severn (1-8)
Parkside (7-1) (Delmar) @ Kent County (4-4), Play-off game
Easton (5-3) (Delmar) Cambridge-SC (7-1), Play-off game
La Plata (5-3) (Central) Calvert (4-4) ,Play-off game
Episcopal (8-0) (Sallies) @ Germantown ( 5-2), Haverford ( 5-3)
ANC (7-1) (Friends) Kiski (5-2), Pingry ( 2-6)

 

[ReturnOfTheGate]

That Caravel/DMA game looks to be an elimination game. The loser would have to sweat out the Friends/Tower game AND the Battle of the Bell.

 

[Titanium Shadow]

Nothing changed from last week except (unsurprisingly) the Opponent Wins (although it didn't change any seedings) and we now know the result of the Howard/AI game.

Assuming every team wins the games they are favored to win by looking at MaxPreps and Massey ratings (a big if), the final D2 playoff seeding will be:

Place | Team | Points/Game | Final Record | Final Points | Bonus Points | Total Points | Opponent Wins | Bonus Point Teams
1. Woodbridge | 4.9 | 10-0 | 44 | 5 | 49 | 49 |
Caraval 1, Friends 1, Archmere 1, Lake 1, Delmar 1
2. Tower Hill | 4.22 | 8-1 | 36 | 2 | 38 | 31 | Friends 1, Red Lion 1
3. Howard | 4.2 | 9-1 | 39 | 3 | 42 | 43 | Hodgson 2, A.I. Dupont 1
4. Delmar | 4.0 | 7-3 | 33 | 7 | 40 | 57 | St. Mary's 1, Parkside 2, Friends 1, Lake 1, Woodbridge 2
5. Archmere | 4.0 | 8-2 | 36 | 4 | 40 | 49 | Woodbridge 2, DMA 1, Red Lion 1
6. Caravel | 4.0 | 8-2 | 37 | 3 | 40 | 45 | Woodbridge 2, DMA 1
7. Lake Forest | 4.0 | 8-2 | 36 | 4 | 40 | 41 | Friends 1, Delmar 1, Woodbridge 2
8. Friends | 3.89 | 7-2 | 28 | 7 | 35 | 56 | A.I. Dupont 1, Woodbridge 2, Lake 1, Delmar 1, New Church 1, Tower Hill 1

9. A.I. DuPont | 3.7 | 8-2 | 34 | 3 | 37 | 34 | Friends 1, Howard 2
10. DMA | 3.6 | 7-3 | 33 | 3 | 36 | 47 | Red Lion 1, Archmere 1, Caravel 1

Win/Loss Assumptions:
1. Woodbridge: Beats Lake and Delmar
2. Tower Hill: Loses to Friends
3. Howard: Beats Dickinson and Glasgow
4. Delmar: Beats Laurel and loses to Woodbridge
5: Archmere: Beats Charter and First State Mil
6. Caravel: Beats DMA and St Elizabeth
7. Lake: Loses to Woodbridge and beats Milford
8. Friends: Beats Tower Hill
9. AI: Beats Brandywine and McKean
10. DMA: Loses to Caravel and beats Conrad

Bonus point assumptions:
1. Woodbridge: All their BPs are pretty much a lock.
2. Tower Hill: All their BPs are pretty much a lock.
3. Howard: All their BPs are pretty much a lock.
4. Delmar: Parkside is a lock to give 1 BP and for their first playoff game it looks like they will be matched up against Rising Sun at home, a game they should easily win, to give 2 BPs. The rest are pretty much a lock. If Parkside only gives 1 BP, Delmar would be knocked down to the 7th seed with a 3.9 index.
5. Archmere: All their BPs are pretty much a lock.
6. Caravel: All their BPs are pretty much a lock.
7. Lake: All their BPs are pretty much a lock.
8. Friends: All their BPs are pretty much a lock. There is a chance New Church gives 2 BPs instead of 1, which would put Friends at a 4.0 index and put them in the 4th seed with 57 Opponent Wins and the head-to-head over Delmar, knocking everybody else down a seed.
9. AI: All their BPs are pretty much a lock.
10. DMA: All their BPs are pretty much a lock.

Key Games:
1. Lake/Milford: If Lake beats Milford they are in. If they lose, AI is in at the 8th seed and Friends moves up to the 7th seed.
2. Caravel/DMA: The winner is in, the loser is out. Both would be the 6th seed.
3. Friends/Tower Hill: Friends is out if they lose (not likely in my opinion). Tower Hill is the 2nd seed win or lose. If Friends loses, AI is in at the 8th seed.

Of the 10 teams, only AI does not control its own fate.

 

[BackinBlack86]

If this holds and it's Caravel @ Howard first round, being Howards home field is Caravel this year does the game get played there? and if so does CA have to take the visitors locker room and visitors side?

 

[HSftballlaxFan]

Ask A.i. that question. They had that problem last year with Tower Hill

 

[delawarenole]

If this holds and it's Caravel @ Howard first round, being Howards home field is Caravel this year does the game get played there? and if so does CA have to take the visitors locker room and visitors side?

Definitely the sideline and jersey as away. Seen this before in other sports.

 

[Uncle Bumfuzzled]

Nothing changed from last week except (unsurprisingly) the Opponent Wins (although it didn't change any seedings) and we now know the result of the Howard/AI game.

Assuming every team wins the games they are favored to win by looking at MaxPreps and Massey ratings (a big if), the final D2 playoff seeding will be:

Place | Team | Points/Game | Final Record | Final Points | Bonus Points | Total Points | Opponent Wins | Bonus Point Teams
1. Woodbridge | 4.9 | 10-0 | 44 | 5 | 49 | 49 |
Caraval 1, Friends 1, Archmere 1, Lake 1, Delmar 1
2. Tower Hill | 4.22 | 8-1 | 36 | 2 | 38 | 31 | Friends 1, Red Lion 1
3. Howard | 4.2 | 9-1 | 39 | 3 | 42 | 43 | Hodgson 2, A.I. Dupont 1
4. Delmar | 4.0 | 7-3 | 33 | 7 | 40 | 57 | St. Mary's 1, Parkside 2, Friends 1, Lake 1, Woodbridge 2
5. Archmere | 4.0 | 8-2 | 36 | 4 | 40 | 49 | Woodbridge 2, DMA 1, Red Lion 1
6. Caravel | 4.0 | 8-2 | 37 | 3 | 40 | 46 | Woodbridge 2, DMA 1
7. Lake Forest | 4.0 | 8-2 | 36 | 4 | 42 | 40 | Friends 1, Delmar 1, Woodbridge 2
8. Friends | 3.89 | 7-2 | 28 | 7 | 35 | 56 | A.I. Dupont 1, Woodbridge 2, Lake 1, Delmar 1, New Church 1, Tower Hill 1

9. A.I. DuPont | 3.7 | 8-2 | 34 | 3 | 37 | 34 | Friends 1, Howard 2
10. DMA | 3.6 | 7-3 | 33 | 3 | 36 | 47 | Red Lion 1, Archmere 1, Caravel 1

Win/Loss Assumptions:
1. Woodbridge: Beats Lake and Delmar
2. Tower Hill: Loses to Friends
3. Howard: Beats Dickinson and Glasgow
4. Delmar: Beats Laurel and loses to Woodbridge
5: Archmere: Beats Charter and First State Mil
6. Caravel: Beats DMA and St Elizabeth
7. Lake: Loses to Woodbridge and beats Milford
8. Friends: Beats Tower Hill
9. AI: Beats Brandywine and McKean
10. DMA: Loses to Caravel and beats Conrad

Bonus point assumptions:
1. Woodbridge: All their BPs are pretty much a lock.
2. Tower Hill: All their BPs are pretty much a lock.
3. Howard: All their BPs are pretty much a lock.
4. Delmar: Parkside is a lock to give 1 BP and for their first playoff game it looks like they will be matched up against Rising Sun at home, a game they should easily win, to give 2 BPs. The rest are pretty much a lock. If Parkside only gives 1 BP, Delmar would be knocked down to the 7th seed with a 3.9 index.
5. Archmere: All their BPs are pretty much a lock.
6. Caravel: All their BPs are pretty much a lock.
7. Lake: All their BPs are pretty much a lock.
8. Friends: All their BPs are pretty much a lock. There is a chance New Church gives 2 BPs instead of 1, which would put Friends at a 4.0 index and put them in the 4th seed with 57 Opponent Wins and the head-to-head over Delmar, knocking everybody else down a seed.
9. AI: All their BPs are pretty much a lock.
10. DMA: All their BPs are pretty much a lock.

Key Games:
1. Lake/Milford: If Lake beats Milford they are in. If they lose, AI is in at the 8th seed and Friends moves up to the 7th seed.
2. Caravel/DMA: The winner is in, the loser is out. Both would be the 6th seed.
3. Friends/Tower Hill: Friends is out if they lose (not likely in my opinion). Tower Hill is the 2nd seed win or lose. If Friends loses, AI is in at the 8th seed.

Of the 10 teams, only AI does not control its own fate.

Nice piece of analysis.

 

[HSFootballDE]

So many variables that could still happen. But I do agree that on most of these team are in the playoffs.

Couple of things that could really mess things up:

1. Friends could lose to Tower hill. With by far the weakest schedule, they must be the healthiest team out there (maybe that is the point??) and Friends is not, losing their QB is going to be a huge factor.

2. Woodbridge could lose the next 2 games. Lake forest can beat Woodbridge, their QB is healthy and the their offense is really clicking. Woodbridge has thrown a new player on the team and sometimes that can be a distraction.

3. Delmar could lose their next 2 also. Laurel is Delmar's rival(and we saw how laurel can play vs. Woodbridge) and will have nothing to lose and will bring out all the tricks.

4. DMA and beat Caravel. DMA has played tough all year, and a turnover here or there, you never know.

 

[BackinBlack86]

Friends back up QB is a senior ( Opderbeck ) and has been playing well. I don't think Friends is losing a whole bunch there. Opderbeck saw plenty of game time as a starter the last time Nelson went down for an extended period of time..

 

[HSFootballDE]

Tower Hill Opponents win are 31, wow, what is the lowest win total for a playoff team in recent history? 31 has got to be up there

 

[BackinBlack86]

Tower Hill Opponents win are 31, wow, what is the lowest win total for a playoff team in recent history? 31 has got to be up there

Tower Hill belongs in tier 2 with RLCA, Conrad, Brandywine, Glasgow, McKean, Laurel etc... They will get blasted first round

 

[Jules1127]

Tower Hill belongs in tier 2 with RLCA, Conrad, Brandywine, Glasgow, McKean, Laurel etc... They will get blasted first round

HERE WE GO!!!!

 

[BackinBlack86]

Tower Hill Opponents win are 31, wow, what is the lowest win total for a playoff team in recent history? 31 has got to be up there

Tower Hill has a -14.2 schedule strength.. That my Friends is dead last in Delaware

http://calpreps.com/2019/ratings/Delaware_all.htm

Per SOS

#42 Dickinson -13.4
#43 FSMA -13.5
#44. Tower Hill -14.2

That is downright shameful

by the way where are the couple of TH apologist that were posting here a few weeks ago saying TH was going to show us?

Oh that's right they disappeared right after Red Lion almost beat them.. lol

 

[BackinBlack86]

HERE WE GO!!!!

lol There he is.. Welcome back! How is your Hudl highlights coming along for your boy?

 

[Jules1127]

lol There he is.. Welcome back! How is your Hudl highlights coming along for your boy?

LOL!! I didn't say a word!! I got no defense for the schedule!!

 

[BackinBlack86]

NP Jules.. you know I like to play...

 

[Titanium Shadow]

Tower Hill Opponents win are 31, wow, what is the lowest win total for a playoff team in recent history? 31 has got to be up there

And 14 of those 31 wins comes from just two teams: Friends and Red Lion.

 

[Downstate4]

And 14 of those 31 wins comes from just two teams: Friends and Red Lion.

I was hoping to see Howard vs Woodbridge for chip.. They might meet early than I thought because of a very weak Tower Hill team.. Smh

 

[BackinBlack86]

I was hoping to see Howard vs Woodbridge for chip.. They might meet early than I thought because of a very weak Tower Hill team.. Smh

No worries Downstate they re-seed each round. After TH gets bounced round 1 Howard gets the home in the semis.. Basically Howard would have to drop to 5th seed to have to play WB in semis,, I would complain more about Howard having to play Caravel 1st round because of TH week scheduling..

 

[youjustme]

No worries Downstate they re-seed each round. After TH gets bounced round 1 Howard gets the home in the semis.. Basically Howard would have to drop to 5th seed to have to play WB in semis,, I would complain more about Howard having to play Caravel 1st round because of TH week scheduling..

Y'all gonna leave my boy, T. Hill alone and stop dissin 'em. Go on and make him mad enough to reach the semis!!

 

[Ikeyfbst2]

D-II is so much more fun compared to D-I, when it comes to who gets in and such.

 

[BackinBlack86]

Yeah ikey and I say bring Milford back..

 

[delawarenole]

No worries Downstate they re-seed each round. After TH gets bounced round 1 Howard gets the home in the semis.. Basically Howard would have to drop to 5th seed to have to play WB in semis,, I would complain more about Howard having to play Caravel 1st round because of TH week scheduling..

Two of the top three IMO in the first round.

Winner of Howard vs Caravel will play WB for title IMO