D2 Playoff Projections Week 4 2020

[Titanium Shadow]

It’s (barely) far enough along in the season to start projecting possible playoff scenarios for D2. I will only analyze the most likely scenarios here, as there are far too many scenarios to do them all. Like Laurel winning out and winning the Henlopen South, or Howard losing their next three games and someone else winning Flight A. These projections also don’t account for any potential Covid issues.

With all that said, let’s get started.

Only 4 teams will make the D2 playoffs this year.

1) The winner of Flight B.
2) The winner of the Henlopen South.
3) Two at large teams based on points index.

This analysis will proceed with the following assumptions:

1) All games are played (i.e. no Covid “No contest” games).
2) Howard wins out and wins Flight B.
3) Delmar wins out.
4) Woodbridge wins out.
5) Caesar Rodney wins at least 1 of their last 3 games.

With those assumptions, Howard will win Flight B, and either Delmar or Woodbridge will win the Henlopen South. That leaves 2 spots for 5 teams, with the following teams most likely to compete for those spots.

1) Delmar/Woodbridge
2) Archmere
3) Tower Hill
4) DMA
5) St. Mark’s

Also, with these assumptions:

1) Woodbridge will end up with is a 4.0 index.
2) Delmar will have a 4.0 or 4.17 index depending on if Caesar Rodney wins 5 or 6 games respectively.

So, depending on who wins the Henlopen South and how many games Caesar Rodney wins, teams will most likely need a minimum of a 4.0 and possibly a 4.17 index to compete for a playoff spot.

1) If Delmar or Woodbridge wins the Henlopen South, a team will need most likely need at least a 4.0 index to compete for a playoff berth.
2) If Woodbridge wins the Henlopen South and Caesar Rodney wins at least 6 games, a team will most likely need at least a 4.17 index to compete for a playoff berth.

The following will show each scenario where a team gets at least a 4.0 index.

Archmere probably has the easiest path to the playoffs at this point.
1) Beat Charter, DMA, and Conrad (4.29 to 5.14 index depending on 0 to 6 possible BPs from Red Lion, St. Mark’s, and DMA).
2) Beat Charter and either DMA or Conrad and get at least 2 of 6 possible BPs from the combination of Red Lion, St. Mark’s, and DMA (4.0 to 4.57 index depending on BPs from Red Lion, St. Mark’s and DMA).
3) Beat DMA and Conrad and get at least 3 of 6 possible BPs from the combination of Red Lion, St. Mark’s, and DMA (4.0 to 4.43 index depending on BPs from Red Lion, St. Mark’s and DMA).
4) Beat Charter and get all 6 possible BPs from the combination of Red Lion, St. Mark’s, and DMA (4.0 index).

Tower Hill is pretty straightforward:
1) Beat both St. Mark’s and Friends (4.8 to 5.2 index depending on 0 to 2 possible BPs from St. Mark’s).
2) Beat either St. Mark’s or Friends (4.0 to 4.4 index depending on 0 to 2 possible BPs from St. Mark’s).

DMA:
1) Beat Red Lion, Archmere, and St. Mark’s (4.29 to 5.14 index depending on 0 to 6 possible BPs from Red Lion, Archmere, and St. Mark’s).
2) Beat 2 of Red Lion, Archmere, and St. Mark’s and get at least 2 of 6 possible BPs from the combination of Red Lion, Archmere, and St. Mark’s (4.0 to 4.57 index depending on 0 to 6 possible BPs from Red Lion, Archmere, and St. Mark’s)
3) Beat 1 of Red Lion, Archmere, and St. Mark’s and get all 6 possible BPs from the combination of Red Lion, Archmere, and St. Mark’s (4.0 index).

St. Mark’s only has one possible path and are not likely to make it:
1) Beat Tower Hill, St. Elizabeth, and DMA and get 4 of 5 possible BPs from the combination of Archmere, Tower Hill, and DMA (4 to 4.14 depending on 4 or 5 possible BPs from Archmere, Tower Hill, and DMA).

There are too many scenarios at this point to figure out which teams are actually going to make the playoffs, but Archmere, DMA and Tower Hill all control their own destiny, while St. Marks and the loser of the Henlopen South, either Delmar or Woodbridge, need help.

Next, I’m going to look at scenarios where both Delmar and Woodbridge can make the playoffs as that will be a very contentious situation if only one of them makes it.

If Delmar wins the Henlopen South or Woodbridge wins the south and Caesar Rodney only wins 5 games, then only one of Archmere, Tower Hill, DMA, and St. Marks can have an index above 4.0 for Woodbridge to compete for a playoff spot. If Woodbridge wins the Henlopen South and Caesar Rodney wins 6 games than the index is 4.17.

All these scenarios assume games not listed are won.

For Archmere to have a 4.0/4.17 index or less:
1) Lose to DMA and Conrad (<4.0 index).
2) Lose to DMA and Conrad but get 6 of 6 possible BPs from Red Lion, St. Mark’s and DMA (4.0 index).
3) Lose to Charter and either DMA or Conrad (<4.0 index).
4) Lose to Charter and only get 3 or less of 6 possible BPs from the combination of Red Lion, St. Mark’s and DMA (4.0 index, 4.14 if 4 BPs or less).
5) Lose to either DMA or Conrad and only get 2 or less of 6 possible BPs from the combination of Red Lion, St. Mark’s and DMA (4.0 index, 4.14 if 3 BPs or less).

For Tower Hill to have a 4.0/4.17 index or less:
1) Lose to both St. Mark’s and Friends (<4.0 index).
2) Lose to either St. Mark’s or Friends and get 0 of 2 possible BPs from St. Marks (4.0 index).

For DMA to have a 4.0/4.17 index or less:
1) Lose 2 of Red Lion, Archmere or St. Mark's (<4.0 index).
2) Lose 1 of Red Lion, Archmere or St. Mark's and only get 2 or less BPs from the combination of Red Lion, DMA, and Archmere (4.0 index, 4.14 if 3 BPs or less).

For St. Mark's to have a 4.0/4.17 index or less:
1) Lose to one of Tower Hill, St. Elizabeth's or DMA (<4.0 index).
2) Only get of 4 of 5 possible BPs from the combination of Tower Hill, Archmere, and DMA (4.0 index, 4.14 if 5 BPs)

Note that Delmar/Woodbridge could still possibly lose “The team whose opponents have the most victories in regular season play will qualify for the playoffs” tiebreaker if tied with a 4.0 index.

This is too long already, but typing it out helps me organize my thoughts. I will update it after this week’s games, which should bring a lot more clarity to the situation.

 

[BackinBlack86]

In simple terms what is keeping St Marks from really having a shot is no D1 games (points) Again Charter determines play-off spots.. At least Delmars D1 win is a legit team..WB had theirs cancelled so that kind of sucks for them

Hopefully this is the last year for this and the new divisions and conferences get adopted.. I believe it will..

 

[Titanium Shadow]

I mainly did this to see if either Delmar or Woodbridge could make the playoffs if they lose the Henlopen South.

Short answer is that it's unlikely at this point. Archmere is not likely to have an index less than 4.0/4.17, so that leaves Tower Hill and DMA (and St. Marks but in my opinion it's likely they lose one of their last three) to somehow drop below a 4.0/4.17 index.

Tower Hill is the most likely of the two to do that, but I wouldn't place a large bet on it.

DMA is even less likely to drop below a 4.0/4.17 index but it's possible.

We will have to see what this week's games bring.

 

[BackinBlack86]

DMA is fools gold..IMO ..they have played nobody ( FSMA, St E, Conrad and Charter ) so its hard to say if they are better than RLCA, Archmere or St Marks. Honestly I can see them losing all 3.. and definately 2 of them.. So if I am projecting then I am taking them out..

6-1 or better (or the 5 or 6 game equivalent) is the mark for at large teams.

So if I am going on the notion TH can't beat St Marks and I am pretty sure on that from what I have seen...

Any of the DSC teams that can go 6-1 can get in..I am pretty confident 4 bps for them will happen. Maybe not RLCA because they didn't play St M so they won't get a point from them so they could end up in a tie break situation with DM or WB at 4.0.. St M could end up 4.0 as well at 6-1

Archmere
6-1 ... 4444604+4 30 (4.28) if +3 29 (4.14) loss would be to DMA

DMA
6-1... 4446404+4 30 (4.28) if +3 29 (4.14) loss would be to Arch

RLCA
6-1.... 6044444+3 29 (4.14) if +2 28 ( 4.0 )

St Marks
6-1... 4440444+4 28 (4.0) if +3 27 (3.85)

Don't forget Brandywine they play D1 Concord (so Sals could play HVT)
2 bp Howard and 1 Glasgow. ( Glasgow should win out).

Brandywine
6-1.... 4044644+3 29 (4.14)

Most of this only matters if TH loses both or if St M doesn't win 5

I am locking Archmere in.. they will win 2 of the last 3 on their schedule

Then I am also projecting DMA loses 2. so take them out

So it comes down to TH in or out.. If TH goes to 4.0 or less then they out (they can't win any of the tie breakers) then DM has the best chance to point in at 4.17 based on what is left at 4.14

So if Delmar wins HSC then RLCA or Brandywine "could get in" at 4.14.. But that is contingent on them winning out ..

So in my final analysis there are pathways for both WB and DM to get in regardless who wins HSC but the chances are much higher if WB gets the conference nod..

DMA to lose 2, TH to get stuck at 4.0 or lower.. that's the ticket in..

There are also scenarios where TH, RLCA, St Marks, Delmar and Woodbridge all could be 4.0.. Then the dreaded tiebreaks..lol.. obviously the teams that played less teams will be at a disadvantage on the opponent wins. TH would finish dead last in any tie break situation. Might be tough for WB also with only 5 games but they would top TH easily

 

[BackinBlack86]

Basically all the teams with 1 loss the playoffs start now.. No team can get in with 2 losses not even TH

 

[Titanium Shadow]

Don't forget Brandywine they play D1 Concord ( so Sals could play HVT)

I had Concord as D2 points in my spreadsheet. So yes, Brandywine could get to a 4.14 index if they win out.

 

[BackinBlack86]

I had Concord as D2 points in my spreadsheet. So yes, Brandywine could get to a 4.14 index if they win out.

I don't think Brandywine can beat Concord but Concord and Brandywine are neighbors. like 5 minutes from each other a good little rivalry game so anything can happen. If BWine manages to beat them then they will win out IMO

 

[BackinBlack86]

This all may just be a waste of time..well I know it's a wasting time lol.. but anyway. My wife is a teacher in Cecil County she just got a call that they just shut everything down. Teachers can't even go back to the schools to get their stuff until after Nov 23rd.. How the hell they even going to do virtual learning without their lessons and stuff?.. This is crazy.. SMH

 

[Yunforce]

This all may just be a waste of time..well I know it's a wasting time lol.. but anyway. My wife is a teacher in Cecil County she just got a call that they just shut everything down. Teachers can't even go back to the schools to get their stuff until after Nov 23rd.. How the hell they even going to do virtual learning without their lessons and stuff?.. This is crazy.. SMH

You are talking about Cecil county. They haven’t thought about teachers since the 80’s

 

[CityFielder]

In simple terms what is keeping St Marks from really having a shot is no D1 games (points) Again Charter determines play-off spots.

While recognizing that beating the Charters and Polytechs of the world bears [should bear] no special merit...St. Mark's had their best chance at the playoffs, at home, with no visiting fans, on Friday night. You don't take those chances, well, you're stuck with the randomness of everything else.

St. Mark's bonus points were in the end also dependent on Tower Hill and Friends...kudos to StM for the stronger schedule. But Tower Hill angling for the playoffs as a 1-loss team at the same time as being unable to give their opponents a bonus point? That's diabolical. If both TH and Friends play a 7-game schedule, with one or both possibly giving bonus points, then St. Mark's is in a much better position as a 1-loss team.

 

[BackinBlack86]

While recognizing that beating the Charters and Polytechs of the world bears [should bear] no special merit...St. Mark's had their best chance at the playoffs, at home, with no visiting fans, on Friday night. You don't take those chances, well, you're stuck with the randomness of everything else.

St. Mark's bonus points were in the end also dependent on Tower Hill and Friends...kudos to StM for the stronger schedule. But Tower Hill angling for the playoffs as a 1-loss team at the same time as being unable to give their opponents a bonus point? That's diabolical. If both TH and Friends play a 7-game schedule, with one or both possibly giving bonus points, then St. Mark's is in a much better position as a 1-loss team.

Very good points CityFielder. I hadn't thought of it from that angle. Bottom line Tower Hill refusing to play Caravel week 6 is asinine. CA did everything short of physically going to the school and knocking on the door to schedule the game, they even had another well respected coach reach out to them asking them to play. Offered a Thanksgiving day game as well.. I hope they fall short by the .08 and not playing cost them playoff bid. Still wondering if when they lose to St Marks this week will they try and reach out to CA for the game? I bet not but you know what? I bet Caravel would put the BS aside and play it for the kids sake. In my opinion the kids deserve every game you can get for them, especially the Sr's.