That time of year again. Here's a look at where I think things will shape out by the end of next week. Obviously, lots of things need to happen between now and then and I've placed those assumptions below. First will be the match-ups based on index, then a list of assumptions made, and then a master list of indexes and seeding tiebreaker thoughts will down below.
To remind everyone of the index calculation, its 2 points for every win, an additional 1 point for playing a team with regular season record of .501 or better. and an additional 1 point for playing a team with regular season record of .701. When calculating indexes, 95% of out-of-state teams are based on Maxpreps.com data. Not every team uses the site, but I've been able to get a rough idea of records of that 5% from other sources.
The records included in () are based on projected final regular season record, NOT the record they have today.
#16 Delcastle (12-8) vs #17 Milford (12-8) winner gets #1 Mount (19-1)
#9 Howard (16-4) vs #24 Delmar (12-7) winner gets #8 Polytech (19-1)
#12 St. Mark's (12-8) vs #21 DMA (14-6) winner gets #5 Appo (17-3)
#13 St. George's (11-9) vs #20 Dickinson (12-8) winner gets #4 St. E's (16-4)
#14 AI (10-10) vs #19 Charter (11-9) winner gets #3 Concord (14-6)
#11 Smyrna (14-6) vs #22 Conrad (14-6) winner gets #6 Sallies (11-9)
#10 Dover (13-7) vs #23 Sussex Tech (10-9) winner gets #7 William Penn (16-4)
#15 Hodgson (10-10) vs #18 Laurel (14-6) winner gets #2 Sanford (16-4)
KEY ASSUMPTIONS THAT LED TO THESE INDEXES/SEEDS:
1) Charter wins @ St. Mark's Wed 2/25 7:15 St. Mark's has lost 3 straight (St. E's, Sallies, St. E's) and they didn't seem impressive versus St. E's last night. Meanwhile Charter has been playing good ball as of late. Moves Charter from 10-10 to 11-9, giving teams who played them a bonus point
2) AI losses to Mount and Appo, moving them to 10-10. Nothing against AI just that Appo and Mount are top teams this year and I don't see them losing. Teams who played them would lose a bonus point.
3) Sallies beats Concord Tues 2/24 7:00. Both teams are coming off tough losses, Sallies to Smyrna by 1, Concord on the road at Penn, but I give Sallies the home court edge and think Donte will come back after a tough ending to Friday night's game. Moves Concord to 14-6, meaning opponents who played them will lose a point. Meanwhile, will move Sallies to 11-9 from 10-10, giving Sals' opponents a bonus point.
4) Howard beats Hodgson at home Wed 2/25 4:45. Howard is playing good ball and their four loses are against Mount, Concord, St. E's, and an exceptionally bad day against Brandywine. This is a good team and not sure Hodgson will keep up. Moves Hodgson to 10-10, opponents would lose a bonus point.
5) Sussex Tech beats Smyrna at home Mon 2/23 7:15. The first time they met this year at Smyrna, Smyrna pulled out a 1-point win. I think Sussex Tech will get big nights out of Sykes and Allen and pull off the upset. This would move Sussex Tech from 9-10 to 10-9, giving their opponents a bonus point. Smyrna would drop to 14-6 from 15-5, and their opponents would lose a point. Henlopen North teams would be unaffected by the outcome of this game.
6) Woodbridge gets the road win against CR Mon 2/23 7;15. This is really a toss up game for me as I don't think I know enough about either of these teams. Both teams have had up and down years and neither are bound for the tournament so not sure who will come to play. Win would move Woodbridge to 11-9. which would help Henlopen South teams. A Woodbridge loss would lower seeding of Milford and Laurel and would probably be the difference for Delmar.
7) Delmar has a couple of interesting games left against Milford and Laurel. Milford first on the road Mon 2/23 6:20. This game doesn't impact other teams bonus points wise, but I think Milford gets it done at home, which gives them the Henlopen South. Then Delmar still has Laurel on either Tuesday or Wednesday. I think at home, Ennis will have a huge night and lead them over Laurel. This will move Laurel from 15-5 to 14-6, giving their opponents one less bonus point, which would be 2x for Henlopen South teams.
Again, the below indexes and seeding pairing would change if these assumptions don't happen. If they all do, then someone better give me some props. Games that are still to be played and not mentioned above (i.e. St. George's vs Middletown), the favorite is assumed to win.
Here are team indexes:
1) Mount 2.65
2) Sanford 2.45
3) Concord 2.35
4) St. E's 2.35
5) Appo 2.35
Although St. E's beat Concord earlier this year, Appo did not play St. E's so it's my understanding head-to-head is irrelevant unless all 3 teams played each other. All 3 teams have undefeated records against other common opponents. Concord got the nod due to higher opponent win %, then St. E's, then Appo. The gaps between these 3 were fairly large.
6) Sallies 2.25
7) William Penn 2.25
The Sals beat Penn earlier in the year.
8) Polytech 2.20
9) Howard 2.20
Edge goes to Polytech over Howard due to their loss over Brandywine and Polytech's win over Brandywine.
10) Dover 2.05
11) Smyrna 2.05
These teams split in the regular season. Dover was 9-4 against common opponents and Smyrna was 8-5 versus common opponents.
12) St. Mark's 2.00
13) St. George's 2.00
St. Mark's was 4-2 versus common opponents while St. George's was 3-2 versus common opponents. If this is incorrect, these two would flip flop as St. George's played the tougher schedule.
14) AI 1.95
15) Hodgson 1.90
16) Delcastle 1.90
Hodgson beat Delcastle earlier this season
17) Milford 1.85
18) Laurel 1.85
19) Charter 1.80
20) Dickinson 1.80
21) DMA 1.80
22) Conrad 1.80
Ok, so here's the good thing about this tiebreaker: all these teams have played each other.
Charter 2-1 H2H (W Dickinson, L DMA, W Conrad)
Dickinson 2-1 H2H (W DMA, L Charter, W Conrad)
DMA 2-2 H2H (L Dickinson, W Charter, W Conrad, L Conrad)
Conrad 1-3 H2H (L DMA, W DMA, L Charter, L Dickinson)
While Charter and Dickinson are 2-1 H2H, Charter beat them, so in my eyes, they should be 19, over Dickinson at 20. Might not work this way, but just makes sense to me.
23) Sussex Tech 1.789
24) Delmar 1.789
25) Red Lion 1.789
Another tough toss up, and this time the last place of this tiebreak is out of the tournament. These 3 did not have any all common opponents, so it comes down to opponent win %. ST definitely has the highest and would make them #23. Delmar and Red Lion play so many out-of-state opponents I'm not confident enough to officially say who would be in, but to me it looks like it would be Delmar (plus I secretly want to see how Ennis would handle Howard)
Close calls:
Newark 1.65
Cape 1.65
Woodbridge 1.60
Middletown 1.50
CR 1.50
Again, this is not exactly perfect, and a lot of games still left to be played, but this gives a good idea of where teams can expect to land. What's the most dangerous first round match-up? Second round? The title is as up for grabs this year as it's ever been so should be an exciting tournament this year.
This post was edited on 2/21 10:45 PM by steviking14
To remind everyone of the index calculation, its 2 points for every win, an additional 1 point for playing a team with regular season record of .501 or better. and an additional 1 point for playing a team with regular season record of .701. When calculating indexes, 95% of out-of-state teams are based on Maxpreps.com data. Not every team uses the site, but I've been able to get a rough idea of records of that 5% from other sources.
The records included in () are based on projected final regular season record, NOT the record they have today.
#16 Delcastle (12-8) vs #17 Milford (12-8) winner gets #1 Mount (19-1)
#9 Howard (16-4) vs #24 Delmar (12-7) winner gets #8 Polytech (19-1)
#12 St. Mark's (12-8) vs #21 DMA (14-6) winner gets #5 Appo (17-3)
#13 St. George's (11-9) vs #20 Dickinson (12-8) winner gets #4 St. E's (16-4)
#14 AI (10-10) vs #19 Charter (11-9) winner gets #3 Concord (14-6)
#11 Smyrna (14-6) vs #22 Conrad (14-6) winner gets #6 Sallies (11-9)
#10 Dover (13-7) vs #23 Sussex Tech (10-9) winner gets #7 William Penn (16-4)
#15 Hodgson (10-10) vs #18 Laurel (14-6) winner gets #2 Sanford (16-4)
KEY ASSUMPTIONS THAT LED TO THESE INDEXES/SEEDS:
1) Charter wins @ St. Mark's Wed 2/25 7:15 St. Mark's has lost 3 straight (St. E's, Sallies, St. E's) and they didn't seem impressive versus St. E's last night. Meanwhile Charter has been playing good ball as of late. Moves Charter from 10-10 to 11-9, giving teams who played them a bonus point
2) AI losses to Mount and Appo, moving them to 10-10. Nothing against AI just that Appo and Mount are top teams this year and I don't see them losing. Teams who played them would lose a bonus point.
3) Sallies beats Concord Tues 2/24 7:00. Both teams are coming off tough losses, Sallies to Smyrna by 1, Concord on the road at Penn, but I give Sallies the home court edge and think Donte will come back after a tough ending to Friday night's game. Moves Concord to 14-6, meaning opponents who played them will lose a point. Meanwhile, will move Sallies to 11-9 from 10-10, giving Sals' opponents a bonus point.
4) Howard beats Hodgson at home Wed 2/25 4:45. Howard is playing good ball and their four loses are against Mount, Concord, St. E's, and an exceptionally bad day against Brandywine. This is a good team and not sure Hodgson will keep up. Moves Hodgson to 10-10, opponents would lose a bonus point.
5) Sussex Tech beats Smyrna at home Mon 2/23 7:15. The first time they met this year at Smyrna, Smyrna pulled out a 1-point win. I think Sussex Tech will get big nights out of Sykes and Allen and pull off the upset. This would move Sussex Tech from 9-10 to 10-9, giving their opponents a bonus point. Smyrna would drop to 14-6 from 15-5, and their opponents would lose a point. Henlopen North teams would be unaffected by the outcome of this game.
6) Woodbridge gets the road win against CR Mon 2/23 7;15. This is really a toss up game for me as I don't think I know enough about either of these teams. Both teams have had up and down years and neither are bound for the tournament so not sure who will come to play. Win would move Woodbridge to 11-9. which would help Henlopen South teams. A Woodbridge loss would lower seeding of Milford and Laurel and would probably be the difference for Delmar.
7) Delmar has a couple of interesting games left against Milford and Laurel. Milford first on the road Mon 2/23 6:20. This game doesn't impact other teams bonus points wise, but I think Milford gets it done at home, which gives them the Henlopen South. Then Delmar still has Laurel on either Tuesday or Wednesday. I think at home, Ennis will have a huge night and lead them over Laurel. This will move Laurel from 15-5 to 14-6, giving their opponents one less bonus point, which would be 2x for Henlopen South teams.
Again, the below indexes and seeding pairing would change if these assumptions don't happen. If they all do, then someone better give me some props. Games that are still to be played and not mentioned above (i.e. St. George's vs Middletown), the favorite is assumed to win.
Here are team indexes:
1) Mount 2.65
2) Sanford 2.45
3) Concord 2.35
4) St. E's 2.35
5) Appo 2.35
Although St. E's beat Concord earlier this year, Appo did not play St. E's so it's my understanding head-to-head is irrelevant unless all 3 teams played each other. All 3 teams have undefeated records against other common opponents. Concord got the nod due to higher opponent win %, then St. E's, then Appo. The gaps between these 3 were fairly large.
6) Sallies 2.25
7) William Penn 2.25
The Sals beat Penn earlier in the year.
8) Polytech 2.20
9) Howard 2.20
Edge goes to Polytech over Howard due to their loss over Brandywine and Polytech's win over Brandywine.
10) Dover 2.05
11) Smyrna 2.05
These teams split in the regular season. Dover was 9-4 against common opponents and Smyrna was 8-5 versus common opponents.
12) St. Mark's 2.00
13) St. George's 2.00
St. Mark's was 4-2 versus common opponents while St. George's was 3-2 versus common opponents. If this is incorrect, these two would flip flop as St. George's played the tougher schedule.
14) AI 1.95
15) Hodgson 1.90
16) Delcastle 1.90
Hodgson beat Delcastle earlier this season
17) Milford 1.85
18) Laurel 1.85
19) Charter 1.80
20) Dickinson 1.80
21) DMA 1.80
22) Conrad 1.80
Ok, so here's the good thing about this tiebreaker: all these teams have played each other.
Charter 2-1 H2H (W Dickinson, L DMA, W Conrad)
Dickinson 2-1 H2H (W DMA, L Charter, W Conrad)
DMA 2-2 H2H (L Dickinson, W Charter, W Conrad, L Conrad)
Conrad 1-3 H2H (L DMA, W DMA, L Charter, L Dickinson)
While Charter and Dickinson are 2-1 H2H, Charter beat them, so in my eyes, they should be 19, over Dickinson at 20. Might not work this way, but just makes sense to me.
23) Sussex Tech 1.789
24) Delmar 1.789
25) Red Lion 1.789
Another tough toss up, and this time the last place of this tiebreak is out of the tournament. These 3 did not have any all common opponents, so it comes down to opponent win %. ST definitely has the highest and would make them #23. Delmar and Red Lion play so many out-of-state opponents I'm not confident enough to officially say who would be in, but to me it looks like it would be Delmar (plus I secretly want to see how Ennis would handle Howard)
Close calls:
Newark 1.65
Cape 1.65
Woodbridge 1.60
Middletown 1.50
CR 1.50
Again, this is not exactly perfect, and a lot of games still left to be played, but this gives a good idea of where teams can expect to land. What's the most dangerous first round match-up? Second round? The title is as up for grabs this year as it's ever been so should be an exciting tournament this year.
This post was edited on 2/21 10:45 PM by steviking14
