PLAYOFF POINTS and PROJECTIONS

[oldskool42]

Here is how I see it. The first number is the points index which is taking your total pts and dividing it by the number of games you played. There will be a couple of teams not playing 18 games, so the index must be used. For those unaware you get 3 pts for every win, then you get bonus pts for playing teams with .500 record (1 pt) and an additional point if your opponent has a .650 winning percentage. Keep in Mind that Dover, A.I, Hodgson, Tower Hill & Archmere have won their conference and get into playoffs automatically. Henlopen South is still up for grabs. If Lake beats Wood, Lake wins south and gets into playoffs regardless of pts. If Lake loses Delmar gets in playoffs. (neither Delmar or Lake can get in without the auto bid).

1) 3.72 St Marks (67 pts currently) 6 additional bonus pts poss, estimated final pts 71
2) 3.39 Archmere (61 pts) 7 bonus pts poss, est final pts 64 pts
3) 3.27 Caravel (49 pts) 1 gm left, 7 bonus pts poss, est final pts 54 pts (only play 16 games)
4) 3.22 Smyrna (58 pts) 3 bonus pts poss, est final pts 60 pts
5) 3.19 Dover (51 pts) 2 gms left, 4 bonus pts poss, est final 59 pts (assuming 2 wins)
6) 3.12 A.I. Dup (53 pts) 1 gm left, 8 bonus pts poss, est final 59 pts (assuming win final)
7) 3.12 CRodney (53 pts) 1 gm left, 6 bonus pts poss, est final 59 pts (assuming win final)
8) 3.12 Mt Pleas (53 pts) 1 gm left, 4 bonus pts poss, est final 58 pts (assuming win final)
9) 3.06 Sallies (52 pts) 1 gm left, 4 bonus pts poss, est final 57 pts (assuming win final)
10) 3.06 Sus Tech (55 pts) 2 bonus pts poss, est final 56 pts
11) 3.00 Sus Centl (51 pts) 1 gm left, 3 bonus pts poss, est final 56 pts (assuming win final)
12) 3.00 Hodgson (48 pts) 2 gms left, 7 bonus pts poss, est final 55 pts (assuming go 1-1)++++
13) 2.80 Polytech (42 pts) 3 gms left, 6 bonus pts poss, est final 51 pts (assuming go 2 of 3)
14) 2.67 St Georges (48 pts) 8 bonus pts poss, est final 52 pts
15) 2.50 Tower Hill (45 pts) 5 bonus pts poss, est final 49 pts +++ WON IND Conference
16) 2.50 LAKE OR DELMAR est 47 pts ++++ WON HENLOPEN SOUTH Conference

ON THE BUBBLE

2.71 Conrad (46 pts) 1 gm left vs A.I., 5 bonus pts poss, est final 49 pts (assuming loss to A.I.). If Conrad wins, they could push out Poly or St Georges.

2.59 DMA (44 pts) 1 gm left vs Poly, 6 bonus pts poss, est final 47 pts (assuming loss to Poly). If DMA wins and they get lucky with bonus pts they could get to around 51 or 52 pts.

2.47 Concord (37 pts) 3 gms left. 6 bonus pts poss, est final 49 pts (assuming 3 wins). If Concord beats Wilm Chr, WP & Bwine and get lucky with pts they could get to around 51 or 52 pts.

2.61 Tatnall (47 pts), 4 bonus pts poss, est final 50 pts. If Tatnall gets help by Sanford winning and Conrad winning they can get to 51 pts.

2.19 Charter (35 pts) 2 gms left (Dover, Hodgson), 10 bonus pts poss, est final 41 pts. BUT, if Charter beats Dover and Hodgson, and get super lucky and get all its possible bonus pts, its possible for them to get to 51 pts.


Most likely OUT

Sanford can only get to 50 pts MAX.
Newark can only get to 50 pts MAX.
Appo 49 pts MAX
MTown 49 pts MAX
Delmar 49 pts MAX
Penn 46 pts MAX

Let me know if I missed anything....

This post was edited on 5/18 10:10 AM by oldskool42

This post was edited on 5/18 12:21 PM by oldskool42

 

[oldtimer22]

I thought Hodgson had 2 games left. CR tomorrow and Charter on Wednesday?

 

[oldskool42]

Oldtimer you are correct. I adjusted Hodgson above to show two games remaining.

 

[woodgreen]

poly wins 2 of final 3 with loss to central


central gets 5 point win

sallies wins 12-central gets bonus pt

6 possible

plus cambridge was a 5 point win

This post was edited on 5/18 2:50 PM by woodgreen

 

[oldtimer22]

Pretty wild Monday with Conrad beating AI, Charter beating Dover, Hodgson over CR and Poly beating Sussex Central. All 4 games could be considered upsets. Oldskool how does this affect the seeds? Does Conrad get in at 12-6 and knock out St Georges? Seems like a lot of teams with winning records will be left out this year.

 

[delpsufan]

I think you are wrong about the 5 points. Only regular season records count. CSD finished with a 12-8 record in the regular season. Their current record is 15-8 with 3 playoff wins. So, Central should get 4 points, not 5.

 

[oldskool42]

Oldtimer the points are flying around right now...

As i see it...

St Georges has 53 pts and can get points for DMA getting to 12 wins in its final game and Mtown getting to 12 wins and Charter getting to 9 wins.
Conrad has 52 pts and can get points from DMA and Mtown as well.

So as i see it, St Georges has to finish at least 1 pt higher than Conrad no matter what happens.

Polytech is the monkey wrench for the final spot. Not only do they play Mtown and DMA, possibly knocking both officially out of contention and not allowing its opponents to get the extra bonus points. Also, POLY needs to win to stay in it.
Poly has 46 pts with 2 games remaining (6 potential pts), plus 3 potential bonus pts. BUT the caveat is that if Poly wins both games it can't get 2 of those bonus pts because Poly will have kept Mtown and DMA from getting to their extra bonus pts. So if Poly wins one of its last two, it can be around 50-51 range, probably missing out. If Poly wins both, it will be in the 52-53 range.

Sus Central has 53 pts and has only 1 bonus pt remaining (if Poly wins one of its last two). So Central can end up with 53 and through tie breakers maybe be out?

DMA has 46 pts, 1 gm remaining and 4 bonus pts possible. Possibly 53 pts.

Concord has 45 pts. 1 gm remaining and 4 bonus pts possible. Possibly 52 pts

Tatnall has 51 pts and nothing on the table. DONE

Charter has 42. 1 gm remaining 6 bonus pts possible. 51 pts max DONE

Sanford has 47 1 gam remaining, no bonus pts possible. 50 pts max DONE

Newark has 45 pts. 5 bonus pts possible. 50 pts max DONE

Appo has 42. 1 game remaining, 4 bonus pts possible. 49 pts max. DONE

Mtown has 41. 1 game remaining 5 bonus pts possible. 49 pts max DONE

LAKE OR DELMAR WILL WIN HENLOPEN SOUTH AND GET IN EVEN THOUGH BELOW ALL THE ABOVE TEAMS.



This post was edited on 5/20 9:55 AM by oldskool42

 

[TheDETop20]

Oldskool, how many open playoff spots are we talking about? Are all of these teams fighting for the last playoff slot?

 

[AITerp]

Do either Delmar or Lake have enough points to qualify in the top half of all teams? If not, neither will make the tournament.

 

[oldskool42]

DETOP20

After looking at it closer, I don't see a scenerio were Central and St Georges don't get in. So it think the last spot is up for grabs if i'm right in my calculation.

Technically Tower Hill & the Henlopen South will get the bottom two spots, but the spot above that is up for grabs.

I think the last spot is Conrad's or Poly's. I think DMA and Concord are OUT.

If Poly wins both games i believe it gets the last spot. Central, St Georges & Poly would all have 53 or 54 and Conrad would be at 52, everyone else lower.
If Poly loses either game, i think at worse Central, St Georges and Conrad would have 53 pts and at best Poly would get to 52.

Please check my math...but thats how i see it.

 

[oldskool42]

AITerp - Somebody has to win the Henlopen South and that team (either Lake or Delmar) will get the Auto Bid into the playoffs.

Henlopen South Champ will be the #16 seed for sure with 45 or 46 total playoff pts.
Independent Champ, Tower Hill, will be the #15 see for sure with 49 or 50 total playoff pts.

Unfortunately there will be a handful of teams that have more playoff pts than either of those Conference Champs but not get into the playoffs. Sad but true.

 

[AITerp]

The tournament rules state that they must also finish in the top half of the points.

 

[FuriousFour]

AITerp is right, unless the info on the DIAA site is off

It could be close for the South Champs: I think there are 48 teams playing baseball in Delaware. If that is true they have to finish in the top 24

This is from DIAA site:



B. Conference/Flight/Division Champions' automatic berths will be determined by the following qualifying criteria:

1. A Conference/Flight/Division must consist of five participating schools to receive an automatic berth. If a Conference/Flight/Division has fewer than five participating teams, the teams are still eligible for an at-large berth.

2. The Conference/Flight/Division Champion must possess a .500 winning percentage record or better.

3. The Conference/Flight/Division Champion must be in the top 50% of all eligible teams in the state tournament field.

If the winner only gets to 47 points, then its possible to fall behind enough teams to drop out of 24

The top 16 from above, which in this case includes both Poly & Conrad

Plus, Concord, DMA, Tatnall, Charter, Sanford, Newark, Appo, Mtown could all finish with more points than South winner.

 

[oldskool42]

If thats true about top 24, Lake might be in trouble. Tower Hill would be dangerously close as well, but should just make it.

Sorry for mis-informing everyone. I did not realize that.

 

[TheDETop20]

Originally posted by oldskool42:
If thats true about top 24, Lake might be in trouble...










Originally posted by FuriousFour :
If the winner only gets to 47 points, then its possible to fall behind enough teams to drop out of 24

Someone check my numbers, but I have Lake Forest with 42 points, plus another 3 if they beat Woodbridge today and 1 more possible from Polytech if they get one more win. That's a max of 46 points. If Lake wins today they would be the Conference winner, but with only 45 or 46 ponts.

I also have Delmar at 47 points with 2 more points possible from Appo and Polytech. Thats a max of 49 points.



This post was edited on 5/20 3:08 PM by TheDETop20

This post was edited on 5/20 5:19 PM by TheDETop20

 

[oldtimer22]

Can someone explain why they don't have 24 teams in the playoffs and give the top 8 byes like in basketball?

 

[CountianJeff]

Woodbridge defeated Lake today. So, you it will be Delmar's points you need to consider for this top 50 percent rule.

 

[FuriousFour]

Not sure if anyone knows exactly why. Heard they don't want to have extra days of playoff games. Worried about weather pushing the tournament out the tournament so it might conflict with graduation dates ect..that giving teams byes in baseball is too much of advantage b/c of pitching...

It really is a joke that teams with 11 or 12 wins won't get a chance in the postseason.

 

[oldtimer22]

Check this link out for Connecticut. No points. Seeding based on win percentage. With tie breakers 1- Undefeated Most Wins 2- Most games played 3- Head to Head 4- By lot. Equals zero politics. Anyone winning 40% or more games can enter. Team that play easy schedules and gets a high seed usually gets hammered by lower seed teams playing top teams during the season. They have 4 divisions LL, L, M and S. All based on how many boys in school. Cost $75 per team. Tournament championships played June 13,14 at the same field. Tournament does not start until May 31st. Games that count towards seeding need to be played by May 29th.

http://content.ciacsports.com/tournamentcentral.shtml
Delaware could play way more games and extend the playoffs.
This post was edited on 5/21 12:50 PM by oldtimer22

 

[woodgreen]

diaa say it fast say it slow they dont care or want more work!!!

many years ago semifinal and final were on same day

diaa wanted 2 gates so they changed it

tourny would run in to june

some seniors would have attended graduation and still be playing


you can look it up!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!