Playoff Projections

[oldskool42]

My predictions/potential. With the bonus points on the table, i tried counting every possible scenerio where there are points that could be earned. So some aren't realistic, but possible. Then my estimated pts are what likely will happen.


1 St Marks 58 pts (win 2 gms rem, 9 bonus pts on the table) est. 69 pts
2 Archmere 55 pts (1 gm win, 13 bonus pts possible) est 65 pts
3 CR 52 pts (win 2 gms left, 11 bonus pts poss.) est 65 pts
4 Dover 44 pts (win 4 gms left, 8 bonus pts poss) est 59 pts
5 Smyrna 49 pts (2 gms left, 1 win, 9 bonus pts poss) est 59 pts
6 Sus Tech 47 pts (win 2 gms left 9 bonus pts) est 59 pts
7 Caravel 42 pts (5 gms left win 3, 9 bonus pts) est 57 pts
8 A.I. Dupont 43 pts (3 gms left, win 2, 11bonus pts poss) est 57 pts
9 Sus Cntrl 43 pts (4 gms left, win 2, 11 bonus pts poss) est 57 pts
10 Sallies 41 pts (win 3 gms left, 11 bonus pts poss) est 57 pts
11 Hodgson 41 pts (3 gms left, win 2, 12 bonus pts poss) 56 pts
12 Poly 39 pts (4 gms left, win 2, 12 bonus pts poss) est 53 pts
13 Mt P 40 pts (4 gms left, win 2, 9 bonus pts poss) est 52 pts
14 St G 41 pts (2 gms left, win 1, 11 bonus pts poss) est 51 pts
15 LAKE OR DELMAR (whoever wins the Henlopen South)
16 TOWER HILL (INDEPENDENT CHAMP)


Bubble Teams
Conrad 40 pts (3 gms left win 1, 11 bonus pts poss) est 49 pts
Tower Hill 40 pts (lose 2 gms left, 11 bonus pts poss) est 47 pts ***
Delmar 42 pts (win 1 gm left, 7 bonus pts poss) est 48 pts
Concord 33 pts (5 gms left win 3, 10 bonus pts poss) est 48 pts
Lake 36 pts (3 gms left, win 2, 6 bonus pts poss) est 46 pts


Wood can win the Henlopen South
Mtown would have to win out to get around 48 pts.
Cape would have to win their last 2 games (Smy & St Marks) and with bonus pts get to around 49 pts
Appo - if they win 2 of their last 3 (Caravel, Concord & Mt P) along with a bunch of relatively easy bonus pts coming to them, could get to 48 pretty easily.
Charter - if they win 2 of last 5 (Dma, St G, Tower, Dover, Hodgs) along with a bunch of relatively easy bonus pts coming to them could get to 48 pretty easily.
St E - if they win their last 2 games (Sallies & Mt P) along with a bunch of relatively easy bonus pts coming to them, could get to 48 pretty easily.
Newark wins their last game against Mtown, they could get to around 47-48 pts.
DMA wins 2 of their last 3 (Chart, WmPenn, Poly), they could get to around 48 pts
Tatnall could lose their last game against A.I. but still get around 48 pts in Tower gets to 12 wins.
Sanford could win 2 of their last three (Sals, Friends, St And) and get to 47 pts. But if Tower gets to 12 wins, they could get 3 more pts.
Wm Penn OUT
All other teams out already.


This post was edited on 5/13 1:02 PM by oldskool42

This post was edited on 5/13 3:06 PM by oldskool42

 

[oldtimer22]

Oldskool nice job. Lots of options. Made me dizzy just trying to think about them.

One question. Do you have Smyrna beating AI? If not who beats them?

 

[skipsternicole]

Woodbridge is far from out of it as I write this, they are undefeated in Henlopen South at 4-0. True, they play Delmar this afternoon, and still have Lake Forest next Tuesday.

Oddly enough they could win out, but might still not have enough points to qualify for the tournament


Or is there some kind of weird Henlopen Conference rule where games against the other division count in your conference record? LOL I did notice that they all play each other, doesn't leave alot of room for games vs. upstate teams, although St. Mark's seems to find a way to play Henlopen teams in all sports, baseball-wise they are 4-0 vs the North and 2-0 vs. the South with games against Central and Cape still to go.

.
This post was edited on 5/13 2:39 PM by skipsternicole

 

[oldskool42]

Skipster...your right that Wood could actually win the South. I missed that. I don't think they have a realistic shot points wise though.

 

[oldskool42]

Oldtimer22... I had Smyrna beating A.I. That should be a very good game though on Wed. Ai has two good pitchers, i like that PiJuan a lot. Smyrna has a couple of good pitchers as well.

I think Conrad can give A.I. a run too. Conrad plays teams tough but sometimes tends to fall apart with an error or allowing a comeback. But i wouldn't count Conrad out.

 

[woodgreen]

delmar wins south-lake and bridge done

cape loses to smyrna-they are done-fundraiser for football coach saturday

centrtal beats ir-look like a 10 seed

 

[oldtimer22]

Seaford beats CR 2-1. Huge upset.

 

[CountianJeff]

Indeed. I didn't believe it when I first heard it. Great win for Seaford, which has made more than one top tier Henlopen team sweat out a victory this season.

 

[oldskool42]

Woodgreen... How does Delmar win the south? I'm confused. Lake beat Delmar and if Lake beats Wood they will have swept the south leaving Delmar with 1 loss in the South. But it was my understanding that the Henlopen south was based on total henlopen record (north and south). Which again, if Lake beats Wood, Lake and Delmar would have a tied total record against the Henlopen conferences and Lake would get it by their head to head win over Delmar???

Im from upstate, what am i missing?

 

[CountianJeff]

It definitely goes by complete conference record, not just South games. If Lake beats Woodbridge, I think it finishes 6-7 in Henlopen play, same as Delmar. If the first tiebreak is head-to-head, and I can't see how it's not, that would make Lake the South champ. That is, unless I am missing something or added up one of the teams' conference record wrong.

This post was edited on 5/14 12:27 PM by CountianJeff

 

[skipsternicole]

Complete conference record?? Interesting concept?? One would wonder why they don't do home and homes against the teams from their own division of the Henlopen.

Great concept for the North, not so much for the South

North vs. South matchup this year, North leads 43 to 4

South coaches may want to rethink this, as their division champion may be the only representative in the tournament, while the North could have 6 teams.

 

[baseball_player_]

what are the projected match ups? (Regardless of any changes in the rankings)... What seed plays which seed in the first round?

 

[CountianJeff]

No. 1 plays 16, 2 plays 15 and so forth.