WDEL/DE Sports Zone point projections after Week 9

[GateKeeperRefugee]

Here we go:

D1

Point System
Division I Opponent: 6 Points for a win, 1 Point for a Loss
Division II Opponent: 4 Points for a win, 0 Points for a Loss
Bonus Points: 1 for 7 or 8 opponent wins, 2 for 9 or 10 wins
September 30, 2015 attendance count boundary: 1,086 students, or 543 for all-male schools

Out-Of-State Opponents (Recent Changes in Bold)
Division I: Oakdale (9-1), Interboro (9-1), Queen Anne’s (9-1), Baltimore Poly, Father Judge
Division II: Lower Cape May,

Bonus Point Opponents
7 Wins: William Penn, DMA, St. Georges, Concord
9 Wins: Interboro, Oakdale, Queen Anne’s, Middletown, Smyrna, Woodbridge, Glasgow

1) Middletown (9-0, +1) – 55 Points (6.11) – (Concord)

2) Smyrna (9-0) – 52 Points (5.78) – (Poly)

3) William Penn (8-1, +3) – 51 Points (5.67) – (@Delcastle)

T-4) Concord (7-2, +1) – 43 Points (4.78) – (@MTown)

T-4) Salesianum (6-3, +6) – 43 Points (4.78) – (StMarks)

T-4) Sussex Central (6-3, +6) – 43 Points (4.78) – (IR)
---------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Appoquinimink (5-4, +6) – 40 Points (4.44) – (@Mount)

Cape Henlopen (6-3, +4) – 38 Points (4.22) – (SusTech)

Sussex Tech (5-4, +2) – 33 Points (3.67) – (@Cape)

D2

Point System
Division I Opponent: 6 Points for a win, 1 Point for a Loss
Division II Opponent: 4 Points for a win, 0 Points for a Loss
Bonus Points: 1 for 7 or 8 opponent wins, 2 for 9 or 10 wins

Out of State Schools Divisions (Subject to Verification)
BOLD = Update from original post)
Division I: Linganore (7-3), Elkton (9-1)
Division II: New Church, Harford Tech, Perkiomen (6-3), George, St. John Paul (VA), Broadwater Academy, John Carroll, Saint Mary’s, Sidwell Friends, Silver Oak, Academy of New Church, Perryville, Bishop McDevitt, Morrisville, Smithsburg, Capitol Christian

7 WINS: Milford, DMA, St. Georges, Friends, William Penn. Concord, Linganore
9 WINS: Smyrna, Elkton, Woodbridge, Glasgow

1) Woodbridge (9-0, +2) – 42/9 Points (4.67) – (Delmar)

2) Glasgow (9-0) – 38/9 Points (4.22) – (SGT)

3) DMA (8-1, +1) – 37/9 Points (4.11) – (Conrad)

4) St. Georges (8-1, +1) – 36/9 Points (4.00) – (@Glasgow)

5) Milford (8-1, +3) – 35/9 Points (3.89) – (@Lake)

6) Friends (8-1, +2) – 34/9 Points (3.78) – (Tower)

7) Caravel (6-3, +3) – 32/9 Points (3.56) – (CapitolChristian)

8) Tower Hill (6-2, +1) – 25/8 Points (3.13) – (@Friends)
-------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Saint Mark’s (6-3, +2) – 28/9 Points (3.11) – (@Sals)

Howard (5-4, +5) – 28/9 Points (3.11) – (Dickinson)

Tatnall (6-3, +1) – 25/9 Points (2.78) – (St.Andrews)

Delmar (6-3, +1) – 25/9 Points (2.78) – (@Wood)

Conrad (5-4, +1) – 21/9 Points (2.12) – (@DMA)

 

[fanoffootball123]

St Marks should be in regardless of points and indexes. But they'll probably miss. They need to get a softer schedule like some of those teams above them.

 

[GateKeeperRefugee]

St Marks should be in regardless of points and indexes. But they'll probably miss. They need to get a softer schedule like some of those teams above them.

It'd be a shame if they miss because they've really played hard throughout. The way it looks, St. Mark's would be in no questions asked if they were to beat Sallies. Lose and they pretty much need Friends to beat Tower Hill, which is entirely possible.

 

[Jawnsky]

Fan/Gate....you are both correct. Taking all things into consideration, Spartans have always played the tough games/schedules.

 

[36RaiderD]

So if I'm reading this right...

If Concord loses, they'll get 3 points. If Sallies wins, they get 4 points.

Concord would then be getting a bonus point from Sallies, and a bonus point from WP. Sallies would get the bonus point from from WP.

That would put them back into a tie, both teams played Caravel so a bonus point there doesn't matter, and the tie would give Sallies the #4 seed since they beat Concord h2h, setting us up for a rematch next Friday night at Baynard?

anything I missed there? All of that contingent on Sallies beating STM and Concord losing to Middletown.

 

[Wolverine52]

Sounds right. I've got (assuming Concord loses to Mtown and hoping my math is right):

1) Mtown
2) Smy
3) WP
4) Sals
5) Conc
6) Central

If Concord beats Mtown then 1&2 flip, 4&5 flip

 

[ravensrooster2]

It'd be a shame if they miss because they've really played hard throughout. The way it looks, St. Mark's would be in no questions asked if they were to beat Sallies. Lose and they pretty much need Friends to beat Tower Hill, which is entirely possible.

They would need Howard to lose as well. Howard wins then they post 32 or 33 depending on St G vs GHS If St M loses the best they can get to is 32 .. TH will need to get to 29pts (3.23)
to have a shot

 

[fanoffootball123]

If Tower Hill gets in I'll puke. They don't belong in no matter what. Softest schedule in the State. Play some real opponents.

 

[Lazertron]

Keep in mind that if Appo beats Mount, coupled with a Concord loss and a Penn win, Appo would also be at 47. Not sure what that will mean, but it's worth mentioning.

 

[SmallWonderSports]

They would need Howard to lose as well. Howard wins then they post 32 or 33 depending on St G vs GHS If St M loses the best they can get to is 32 and Howard has the HTH tiebreak.. TH will need to get to 29pts (3.23)
to have a shot

I've got St. Mark's at 33 - currently at 28 and will acquire 3 bonus points from DMA (9), Caravel (7), and St. G (9, assuming they win), in addition to one from Sals (7, assuming they win, becomes two point game for them).

What is the tie-breaker between Howard and St. Mark's? If it is strength of schedule St. Mark's definitely has the advantage.

 

[ravensrooster2]

I've got St. Mark's at 33 - currently at 28 and will acquire 3 bonus points from DMA (9), Caravel (7), and St. G (9, assuming they win), in addition to one from Sals (7, assuming they win, becomes two point game for them).

What is the tie-breaker between Howard and St. Mark's? If it is strength of schedule St. Mark's definitely has the advantage.

I read the schedule wrong... The tiebreaker would be opponents wins.. I think St M would get that

 

[SmallWonderSports]

Here's my prediction:

1. WB
2. St. George's (Beats Glasgow)
3. DMA
4. Milford
5. Glasgow (Tied with Milford, Milford wins SOS)
6. Friends (Beats Tower Hill)
7. Caravel
8. St. Mark's (Loses to Sals, SOS over Howard)

- St. Mark's at WB
- Caravel at St. G's
- Friends at DMA
- Glasgow at Milford

 

[A.I.Pride]

Keep in mind that if Appo beats Mount, coupled with a Concord loss and a Penn win, Appo would also be at 47. Not sure what that will mean, but it's worth mentioning.

There are bonus points that still have not been factored for the final 4-6 seed teams. Even in case of a tie, Appo would be out because they lost to Concord during the regular season.

 

[Lazertron]

In a 2-way tie, yes. Not sure after that.

If Sals or SC lose and Appo beats Mount (not a given), the Jags are in. Just interesting how close they're going to come with a terrible profile.

 

[bbmvp]

Here's my prediction:

1. WB
2. St. George's (Beats Glasgow)
3. DMA
4. Milford
5. Glasgow (Tied with Milford, Milford wins SOS)
6. Friends (Beats Tower Hill)
7. Caravel
8. St. Mark's (Loses to Sals, SOS over Howard)

- St. Mark's at WB
- Caravel at St. G's
- Friends at DMA
- Glasgow at Milford

This looks about right! This would have some very interesting 1st Rd match ups too. St. George's vs Caravel if Barker is back. WB vs St. Marks, who isn't your typical 8 seed.

 

[SmallWonderSports]

This looks about right! This would have some very interesting 1st Rd match ups too. St. George's vs Caravel if Barker is back. WB vs St. Marks, who isn't your typical 8 seed.

Yeah, arguably four best teams in D2 field.

 

[Uncle Bumfuzzled]

Anybody want to do Nate Silver like percentages for tournament?
Before the tourney starts. Must add up to 100. Ie MDT 51%. It is nearly impossible for somebody other than Smyrna or MDT to win the D1 tourney. OK, scholars

Middletown .51
Smyrna. .45
WM Penn. .01
Slowskys. .01
Concord. .01
Central. .0075
Appo. .0025

 

[Uncle Bumfuzzled]

I may be off because look how well Central played Smyrna.

 

[HSftballlaxFan]

The thing is, central created the blueprint on how to defeat Smyrna and Middletown. Since then, we have had close halfs in Central/Smyrna, Cape/Smyrna, Appo/Middletown, and Newark/Middletown. Which is solid defensive play, coupled with time of possession and ground and pound. That is until said schools made their adjustments, and changed their point of attack.

If I was a betting man, no team in the state can touch either Smyrna or Middletown....for a full 4 qtrs. That being said, the only team I see with a slightest chance is William Penn. They have the size up front on both sides of the ball. The secondary is as athletic as any other and two good running backs that if they get open can't be stopped. If they can execute the game plan set by Central they may stand a chance against those two, but I feel like once either Smyrna or Middletown gets up by a score or two, it will be all over. Who ever plays these two has to get up early and stop them on their first drive and create some momentum. That's gonna be hard to do.

Sallies has the size and if Patrick stays at RB they could, but their defense isn't good enough to control or contain Smyrna or Middletowns offense.

Concord....they beat themselves.

Central maybe be able to utilize their gameplan again, but to perform it better than the first time where you gave up 22 points in 7 mins????? You can't allow that. You can't take the foot of the pedal against these two teams.

Appo and cape stand no shot.

So it comes down to Smyrna and Middletown. Offense wise, you can say they are even, though they play different styles. Defense goes to Middletown but special teams goes to Smyrna. If these two get into a scoring affair it's the 2 point conversion that knight is almost garunteed to get every time they score that is going to be the difference. It's going to be close, and we are going to be in for a treat

 

[Uncle Bumfuzzled]

HS, nice piece of analysis.

 

[HSftballlaxFan]

Thanks Bummy.

The only thing I pray for is that the referees STAY OUT OF IT. Let the boys play. If it gets a little physical, well that's what these boys signed up for.

One bad call will dictate this game. I would like to start a petition that they leave their flags in the car.

 

[cavaliercharlie]

I thought the first seven minutes of the SALS/MT game was a solid blueprint.

 

[FootballOG]

If towerhill loses and St marks loses and howard lose than towerhill will still be 8th seed. Because they would get 2 points for losing to Friends and they would get 1 from tatnall. While saint marks would only get 2 from a lose to sallies.

 

[SmallWonderSports]

If towerhill loses and St marks loses and howard lose than towerhill will still be 8th seed. Because they would get 2 points for losing to Friends and they would get 1 from tatnall. While saint marks would only get 2 from a lose to sallies.

There is a 0% chance that Howard loses to Dickinson...

 

[GateKeeperRefugee]

If towerhill loses and St marks loses and howard lose than towerhill will still be 8th seed. Because they would get 2 points for losing to Friends and they would get 1 from tatnall. While saint marks would only get 2 from a lose to sallies.

Howard's not losing to Dickinson. Secondly if Tower Hill loses to Friends, St. Mark's is in because they would have 30 points and the most Tower Hill would finish with is 27.

 

[FootballOG]

Towerhill can get to 29points if they lose w from friends 1 from dma 1 from tatnall making them 8th 29/9 vs stmarks who would have 30/10

 

[GateKeeperRefugee]

That plus one by Tower Hill's name? That's the Tatnall point, and the only point they'll get from Tatnall because Tatnall can't get to nine wins. They'll get 1 from DMA and Friends. 25+2 = 27.

 

[GateKeeperRefugee]

Okay, I take that back, it's a DMA point, but St. Mark's would just need a point from DMA, St. Georges, Caravel, any combo of the three and they would have the higher point index. Basically, Tower Hill needs to beat Friends. Good luck.

 

[WayneJay]

I've got St. Mark's at 33 - currently at 28 and will acquire 3 bonus points from DMA (9), Caravel (7), and St. G (9, assuming they win), in addition to one from Sals (7, assuming they win, becomes two point game for them).

What is the tie-breaker between Howard and St. Mark's? If it is strength of schedule St. Mark's definitely has the advantage.

The DIAA tournament rules gives the tiebreakers in this order:

• head to head
• # of opponent victories (most victories wins tiebreaker)
• # of opponent losses (fewest losses wins tiebreaker)
• committee vote

According to Calpreps website, Howard's opponents are 44-37 and St Mark's opponents are 42-39. To really get an idea, you would have to look at the ten teams on each of their schedules & see who they each play in their last game to try to get a count of how many more opponent wins they will both get.

I tried it and IMO I see St Mark's opponents going 7-3 in Week 10 and Howard's going 5-5 (which would tie them at 49-42).

So it could come down to a committee vote, which would be a shame (I could imagine how "political" that could turn out to be).

 

[GateKeeperRefugee]

That would be a shame for both schools. Basically, we should all be rooting for St. Mark's to beat Sallies so it doesn't come down to any foolishness.

 

[JeffMullen]

SOS

1 39.32 Salesianum 6-3
2 32.01 Dover 2-7
3 30.31 William Penn 8-1
4 28.74 Sussex Central 6-3
5 26.76 Appo 5-4
6 26.25 Cape Henlopen 6-3
7 25.27 Sussex Tech 5-4
8 24.30 Smyrna 9-0 (3)
9 23.13 Concord 7-2
10 22.58 Mt. Pleasant 4-5
11 20.49 Middletown 9-0 (4)

1 29.27 Caravel 6-3
2 19.44 St. Mark's 6-3
3 18.22 Delmar 6-3
4 17.11 Howard 5-4
5 14.78 Milford 8-1
6 13.05 DMA 8-1
7 12.79 Woodbridge 9-0 (7)
8 9.56 St. George's 8-1
9 2.83 Friends 8-1
10 1.89 Tatnall 6-3
11 1.60 Glasgow 9-0