Week 10 Playoff Projection 2A

[Titanium Shadow]

Nothing changed this week except Tower Hill and Friends losing a bonus point from St. Andrews due to their loss to Tatnall.

Seed	Team	District Wins	District Losses	Overall Wins	Overall Losses	Points	Bonus Points	Index	Opponent Win Percentage
1	Woodbridge	6	0	10	0	42	11	5.30	55.1%
2	DMA	6	0	10	0	40	10	5.00	46.0%
3	Archmere	6	0	9	1	38	12	5.00	55.8%
4	Caravel	5	1	9	1	36	10	4.60	55.1%
5	Friends	5	1	9	1	36	9	4.50	50.5%
6	Delmar	3	2	6	3	26	14	4.44	62.9%
7	Tower Hill	3	2	7	2	28	9	4.11	49.4%
8	St. Mark's	5	1	7	3	28	11	3.90	48.0%
9	Howard	3	3	5	5	22	15	3.70	60.4%
10	Tech	3	3	6	4	24	10	3.40	51.5%
11	Concord	4	2	5	5	20	10	3.00	45.4%
12	Newark	3	3	5	5	20	7	2.70	37.0%

Bonus points:

Team	Bonus points
Woodbridge	2 St Mark's, 1 Tech, 1 Delmar, 2 Laurel, 3 Caravel, 1 Lake, 1 Howard
DMA	2 Bonner, 1 Howard, 2 St Mark's, 3 Archmere, 1 Newark, 1 Concord
Archmere	1 Tatnall, 1 Howard, 3 Friends, 2 StM, 2 TH, 3 DMA
Caravel	1 Tech, 1 Concord, 3 WB, 1 Lake, 1 Delmar, 3 St E
Friends	1 Delmar, 1 Tatnall, 2 TH, 3 Archmere, 1 Howard, 1 St A
Delmar	3 Friends, 3 WB , 3 Caravel, 1 Lake, 1 Tech, 1 IR , 2 Laurel
Tower Hill	3 Friends, 1 St A, 3 Archmere, 1 Howard, 1 Tatnall
St. Mark's	3 WB, 1 Newark, 2 Archmere, 1 Concord, 3 DMA
Tech	2 Laurel, 3 Caravel, 3 Woodbridge, 1 Lake, 1 Delmar
Howard	1 Concord, 3 Archmere, 3 DMA, 3 Friends, 2 TH, 3 WB
Concord	1, Howard, 1 Newark, 3 Caravel, 2 St M, 3 DMA
Newark	1 Concord, 2 St M, 1 Lake, 3 DMA

 

[BackinBlack86]

@Titanium Shadow shouldn't Archmere be above DMA with the higher opponents win percentage?

never mind computer is predicting DMA beats Archmere week 10 to give them the HtoH tiebreaker

 

[Titanium Shadow]

@Titanium Shadow shouldn't Archmere be above DMA with the higher opponents win percentage?

The projection is for DMA to beat Archmere (which is a toss up in my opinion), so DMA has the head to head tie breaker.

Whoever wins their game next week is 2 seed and the loser is 3 seed (assuming Woodbridge beats Howard of course).

 

[connorr11]

By the numbers there, if Archmere beats DMA they will be one seed even if Woodbridge beats Howard

 

[Longagoplayer]

By the numbers there, if Archmere beats DMA they will be one seed even if Woodbridge beats Howard

I agree with that because Archmere would finish with 54 points and Woodbridge would have 53.

 

[Longagoplayer]

And damn you Connor with your perfect week lol

 

[connorr11]

there are so many games that have bearing on playoffs next week, if Mount beats Milford then Archmere can lose and be in front of DMA, and if brandywine beats concord then both Archmere and woodbridge would be in front of DMA even if both Woodbridge and Archmere lose. Archmere would be 1 seed and Woodbridge would be 2 seed because they would have opponent tiebreaker over DMA. I think that is correct, I might be wrong but it looks correct by the numbers up top. I think both the Milford/Mount and Concord/brandywine games should be competitive games

 

[Titanium Shadow]

Yes, a lot can still impact seeding, but the teams are set.

 

[Titanium Shadow]

Strength of Schedule from MaxPreps for 2A. Delmar has played the hardest schedule and Newark the easiest.

Interestingly, DMA has played the third easiest schedule in 2A this year.

Rank	Team	SoS
1	Delmar	7.6
2	Red Lion Christian Academy (Bear)	7.2
3	Brandywine (Wilmington)	6.9
4	Howard (Wilmington)	6.4
5	Milford	5.6
6	Woodbridge (Bridgeville)	5.5
7	Sussex Tech (Georgetown)	2.9
8	Archmere Academy (Claymont)	1.2
9	Lake Forest (Felton)	1
10	Wilmington Friends (Wilmington)	-2
11	Conrad Science (Wilmington)	-2.7
12	Mount Pleasant (Wilmington)	-3
13	Delcastle Technical (Wilmington)	-3.4
14	Caravel (Bear)	-4.2
15	Tower Hill (Wilmington)	-4.6
16	Concord (Wilmington)	-4.7
17	DuPont (Wilmington)	-5
18	St. Mark's (Wilmington)	-6.4
19	Delaware Military Academy (Wilmington)	-9.6
20	McKean (Wilmington)	-10.3
21	Newark	-13.3

 

[Longagoplayer]

This is something that should be looked at when DIAA comes together again about redistricting. The fact that 5 of the bottom 6 schools are all in district 1 says something. There is opportunity to make all of the districts more even and hopefully make sure that the teams that do make the playoffs a bit more deserving.

 

[Titanium Shadow]

This is something that should be looked at when DIAA comes together again about redistricting. The fact that 5 of the bottom 6 schools are all in district 1 says something. There is opportunity to make all of the districts more even and hopefully make sure that the teams that do make the playoffs a bit more deserving.

That was pointed out when they were making the Districts for 2A and DIAA didn't care.

 

[Longagoplayer]

I'm sure if St. Marks or DMA make a run they will say the districts are fine the way they are, but if all 4 of the district 1 teams lose their first games it would definitely be a problem.

 

[Titanium Shadow]

I'm sure if St. Marks or DMA make a run they will say the districts are fine the way they are, but if all 4 of the district 1 teams lose their first games it would definitely be a problem.

DMA will get a first round bye, but the odds are that all three of the other District 1 playoff teams will lose in the first round. Concord and Newark will be heavy underdogs against Delmar and Friends respectively and St. Marks and Tech is a toss up in my opinion.

 

[Longagoplayer]

Oh no doubt about Concord and Newark. I mean if St. Marks does lose and even though DMA has a bye if they lose the quarterfinal game, you could blame the fact that they had a weak schedule and were seeded higher then they should. I wouldn't count St. Marks out too much though because their 3 losses are to the top 3 teams in the division. I could definitely see them being a possible Cinderella team.

 

[BackinBlack86]

The only way the northern poorer schools would go along with the realignment to begin with is they try and keep the divisions regional to cut down on travel.. point being they are not going to put a McKean, Conrad, Delcastle etc.. in D3 just to level divisions based on current strength of teams in the divisions. It will always be as local as they can make it. Really the concern is the Classes not the make up of the talent within the divisions.

Really the only inclusion to the south teams in 2A is putting Caravel and RLCA in their division (D3). Once Laurel gets moved back into 2A then they will go to D3 and either CA or RLCA will get moved to D1 or D2. If Laurel and IR or Seaford gets moved up then CA and RLCA will both get moved to northern divisions.

 

[BackinBlack86]

It's really not all that different Hen South has been much stronger than Flight B for quite awhile now...you just have the same thing but in two classes . Caravel and RLCA took Laurel and IR's place in the Hen South. so to speak

 

[BackinBlack86]

I think all the teams south of the canal should go into the southern districts.. Middletown, St Georges, St Andrews, Appo but that creates a numbers issue in 3A. With Caravel and RLCA being the closest above the canal I see why they were put in the 2AD3 (south). Technically RLCA is closer to the canal if one gets moved to D1 or D2 lol.

 

[Woody_Wood]

DMA will get a first round bye, but the odds are that all three of the other District 1 playoff teams will lose in the first round. Concord and Newark will be heavy underdogs against Delmar and Friends respectively and St. Marks will likely lose to Tower Hill, although that one will be closer.

Isn't St Mark's predicted to play Sussex Tech? Or are you assuming Tatnall will beat Tower Hill and land TH in the ninth seed?

 

[Titanium Shadow]

Isn't St Mark's predicted to play Sussex Tech? Or are you assuming Tatnall will beat Tower Hill and land TH in the ninth seed?

You're right. I eyeballed the games wrong.

 

[Longagoplayer]

Isn't St Mark's predicted to play Sussex Tech? Or are you assuming Tatnall will beat Tower Hill and land TH in the ninth seed?

With this week's games there is still quite a bit of shuffling that could happen. If Howard bests Woodbridge that would put them to play St. Marks, and tower hill to play tech. If DMA loses to Archmere that drop them probably down to a 5 seed. Like Connor pointed out the other day if Concord loses and MP wins DMA could be undefeated and become the 3rd seed with both archmere and Woodbridge as the top 2 seeds. Still a lot of things that could play out.

 

[Titanium Shadow]

With this week's games there is still quite a bit of shuffling that could happen. If Howard bests Woodbridge that would put them to play St. Marks, and tower hill to play tech. If DMA loses to Archmere that drop them probably down to a 5 seed. Like Connor pointed out the other day if Concord loses and MP wins DMA could be undefeated and become the 3rd seed with both archmere and Woodbridge as the top 2 seeds. Still a lot of things that could play out.

Yes, a lot can still change in the seeding. For instance, DMA could be anywhere from the 1st through the 5th seed. The projection is only the most likely scenario.

 

[Woody_Wood]

With this week's games there is still quite a bit of shuffling that could happen. If Howard bests Woodbridge that would put them to play St. Marks, and tower hill to play tech. If DMA loses to Archmere that drop them probably down to a 5 seed. Like Connor pointed out the other day if Concord loses and MP wins DMA could be undefeated and become the 3rd seed with both archmere and Woodbridge as the top 2 seeds. Still a lot of things that could play out.

Yes. I understand. I was seeing if TS had some inside info on the TH/Tatnall game. Lol.

 

[Longagoplayer]

Yes. I understand. I was seeing if TS had some inside info on the TH/Tatnall game. Lol.

Honestly with Tatnall riding that 6 game win streak that may end up being a really competitive game

 

[connorr11]

Howard points are off above at 5-5 they should be at 22 pts because they got 2 extra for HVT then add there bonus pts. I believe that would move them up at least one maybe 2 spots

 

[Longagoplayer]

Howard points are off above at 5-5 they should be at 22 pts because they got 2 extra for HVT then add there bonus pts. I believe that would move them up at least one maybe 2 spots

I think it should be 37 total points with an index of 3.7, which should put them in the 9th spot.

 

[Ikeyfbst2]

This is something that should be looked at when DIAA comes together again about redistricting. The fact that 5 of the bottom 6 schools are all in district 1 says something. There is opportunity to make all of the districts more even and hopefully make sure that the teams that do make the playoffs a bit more deserving.

Honestly, I don't have a problem with how the districts are set up. I understand district 2 looks a little more tough than the other ones. However, in years past there have been some pretty good teams left out of the tournament because of an antiquated points system. At the end of the day, I don't feel that any deserving team is going to be left out. I think that's a good thing. Every team had a chance to win their way in. I don't think we can ask for more than that.

 

[Titanium Shadow]

Howard points are off above at 5-5 they should be at 22 pts because they got 2 extra for HVT then add there bonus pts. I believe that would move them up at least one maybe 2 spots

No idea how that happened. Thanks for pointing it out.

 

[BackinBlack86]

Another way to look at it is that no team that went .500 or better (overall) will miss the playoffs with the lone exception of Mt Pleasant if they win this week.

Also no team that went under .500 in their division will get in.

 

[Titanium Shadow]

Fixed Howard's points above.

 

[upstatewrestlingfan]

Did anyone do the other divisions playoff points?

 

[Longagoplayer]

Did anyone do the other divisions playoff points?

TS has done this one. HS has done one for all the divisions but it isn't as comprehensive and it goes by if playoffs started today. But still excellent work from both guys

 

[upstatewrestlingfan]

TS has done this one. HS has done one for all the divisions but it isn't as comprehensive and it goes by if playoffs started today. But still excellent work from both guys

Ahh will look for it.

 

[connorr11]

By the numbers there, if Archmere beats DMA they will be one seed even if Woodbridge beats Howard

Longagoplayer you are forcing me to take archmere and pick them high.

 

[Longagoplayer]

Its the last week, gotta risk it for biscuit 🤣

 

[Titanium Shadow]

Another way to look at it is that no team that went .500 or better (overall) will miss the playoffs with the lone exception of Mt Pleasant if they win this week.

Also no team that went under .500 in their division will get in.

Lake will go 5 and 5 and miss the playoffs.

 

[JMoxon4]

Delmar Laurel game moved to Thursday at 7:30