2019 Delaware Girls' Basketball Tournament Point Projections 2.0

[ReturnOfTheGate]

10 days left in the regular season (Weather permitting) and things are still in flux, so here's what we have heading into this week's games:

1. St. E 14x2 +1+1+2+2+1+1+2+2+1+2+2 45/16 = 2.81
2. Conrad 12x2 +1+1+2+1+2+2+2+1+1+2+2+1 44/17 = 2.58
3. St. Thomas More 12x2 +2+1+1+2+1+2+2+1 36/14 2.57
4. Sussex Tech 13x2 +1+1+1+2+2+2+1+2+1+2+1+1 43/17 = 2.52
5. Cape 14x2 +1+1+1+2+1+2+1+2+2+1 42/17 = 2.47
6. Woodbridge 17x2 +2+2+2+1+1 42/17 2.47
7. Sanford 12x2 +1+2+2+2+1+2+1+2+1+1 39/16 = 2.4375
8. Hodgson 15x2 +2+2+1+1+1+1+2+2+2+2 46/19 = 2.42
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9. Howard 14x2 +2+2+1+1+1+1+2+2+1 41/17 = 2.411
10. Caravel 10x2 +2+1+2+1+2+1+1+2+1+2+2+1+2 40/17 = 2.35
11. Sussex Central 13x2 +2+2+1+1+2+2+2+1+2+1+2+2 47/20 = 2.35
12. St. Georges 14x2 +1+2+1+1+2+2+2+1 40/17 = 2.35
13. Delcastle 14x2 1+2+1+1+1+1+1+2+2 40/18 = 2.22
14. Polytech 10x2 2+2+1+2+1+2+2+2+1+1 36/17 = 2.11
15. Wilmington Christian 11x2 +2+2+2+2+1+1+1+2+1 36/17 = 2.11
16. Mt. Pleasant 10x2 +2+1+1+2+1+1+2+2+2+1 35/17 = 2.05
17. Delmarva Christian 12x2 +2+1+1+2+2+1+2 35/17 = 2.05
18. Ursuline 6x2 +1+2+1+1+2+1+1+2+2+1+2+2+2 32/16 = 2.00
19. Charter 11x2 +2+2+1+2+1+1+2+1 34/17 = 2.00
20. Archmere 11x2 +2+1+2+1+1+1+1+2+2 35/18 = 1.944
21. Lake Forest 15x2 +2+2 34/18 = 1.888
22. Tatnall 8x2 +2+1+1+2+2+1+1+2+1+1 30/16 = 1.875
23. Penn 9x2 +2+2+2+2+1+2+1 30/16 = 1.875
24. Dover 8x2 +2+1+1+2+2+2+1+1 28/15 = 1.866
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25. Padua 8x2 +2+1+1+2+1+2+1+1 27/15 = 1.8
26. McKean 12x2 +1+2 27/15 = 1.8
27. Indian River 9x2 +2+2+2+2+1+2+1+2+2 34/19 = 1.789
28. Newark Charter 10x2 +2+2+1+2+2+1+1+1 32/18 = 1.77
29. Friends 10x2 +1+2+1+1+2+2+1 30/17 = 1.76
30. Appo 6x2 +1+2+2+2+2+2+2+1+1+1+1 29/17 = 1.70
31. Delmar 8x2 +2+2+2+2+1+2 27/16 = 1.6875
32. Tower Hill 8x2 +1+1+2+2+1+2 25/16 = 1.56
33. Seaford 9x2 +2+2+2+2+2 28/18 = 1.55
34. St. Mark’s 6x2 1+1+2+2+2+1 23/15 = 1.533
35. Brandywine 8x2 +1+1+2+1+1+2+2 26/17 = 1.52
36. Christiana 8x2 +1+2+2+2+2+1 26/18 = 1.44
37. St. Andrews 7x2 +1+1+1+1+2+1 21/15 = 1.4

So if the tournament started tomorrow:

9 Howard vs. 24 Dover (winner plays 8 Hodgson)
10 Caravel vs. 23 Penn (winner plays 7 Sanford)
11 Central vs. 22 Tatnall (winner plays 6 Woodbridge)
12 St. Georges vs. 21 Lake Forest (winner plays 5 Cape)
13 Delcastle vs. 20 Archmere (winner plays 4 Sussex Tech)
14 Polytech vs. 19 Wilmington Charter (winner plays 3 St. Thomas More)
15 Wilmington Christian vs. 18 Ursuline (winner plays 2 Conrad)
16 Mt. Pleasant vs. 17 Delmarva Christian (winner plays 1 St. E)

 

[ReturnOfTheGate]

Important games this week:

02/11 - STMA vs. Worcester Prep (another potential 4 points), McKean vs. Christiana (Howard and Mount are PRAYING they get to 15 wins, at 12 currently)

02/12 - Lake vs. Woodbridge (Woodbridge could jump a spot or 2, Lake could jump several spots with a win), Archmere vs. St. E (Every point is critical for Archmere, a St. E win pretty locks them into the top seed), Cape vs. Dover (Cape already has wrapped up the Henny North, Dover needs a win to keep pace among the other bubble teams)

02/13 Ursuline vs. Sanford (A win gives Ursuline at least 3 spots, Sanford needs a win for confidence sake after last year's quarterfinal flop), Caravel vs. Padua (Caravel's approaching a bye, Padua needs a win to stay alive)

02/14 (This is most likely Separation Day) - McKean vs. Newark Charter (Patriots could jump into the tournament with a win, Highlanders of course need to win out to stay alive), Poly vs. Hodgson (Hodgson wraps up a bye with a win, Poly secures a home game with a win), Woodbridge vs. Sussex Tech (A Woodbridge win moves them into the top 4, Sussex Tech stays top 4 with a win), Dover vs. Padua (winner stays alive, loser's probably done)

02/15 - Cape vs. St. Georges (Cape wraps up bye with a win, St. Georges works its way into bye convo with a win) Conrad vs. St. E (state championship preview)

02/16 - Sanford vs. St. Thomas More (Warriors win and probably move into the top 5, STMA possibly has a top seed shot with a win)

 

[StatBoy27]

We appreciate the amount of work that goes into this. Thanks.

important to remember

Bonus Pts
2 pts .701 winning pct and higher
1 pt .501 winning pct to .700 winning pct

lots of 500 teams right now which equals no bonus pts.

 

[84rider]

Nice work @Gatekeepersrefuge, it’s appreciated!

 

[ReturnOfTheGate]

Thanks Rider. And of course, gonna have to rework this week's important games because of this damn snow.

 

[Downstate4]

Thanks Rider. And of course, gonna have to rework this week's important games because of this damn snow.

Pretty good though.. Sussex Tech vs Woodbridge is a huge game.. Think the most important game fair as seedlings go..

 

[pksundevil]

Sanford handled Ursuline 53-36... by my calculations assuming Ursuline beats Dover and loses to Gloucester, they should end at 1.895.... probably enough to make the field.

 

[ReturnOfTheGate]

Yeah, depending on what happens with the teams above them, they could host a first round game. Either way, the teams with byes should be extra wary because John Noonan and his staff always prepare best for the postseason.

 

[ReturnOfTheGate]

Ahead of tonight's games. As you can see, still a lot of moving parts...

1. St. E 15x2 +1+1+2+2+1+1+2+2+1+2+2+1 48/17 = 2.82
2. Woodbridge 18x2 +1+1+2+2+2+1+1+1+2 49/18 = 2.72
3. Sanford 13x2 +1+2+2+2+1+2+1+1+2+1+1+1 43/17 = 2.52
4. Conrad 13x2 +1+1+2+1+1+2+2+2+1+1+2+2+1 45/18 = 2.5
5. St. Thomas More 13x2 +2+1+1+1+2+1+2+1 37/15 = 2.46
6. Hodgson 15x2 +2+2+1+1+1+1+2+2+2+2 46/19 = 2.42
7. Cape 15x2 +1+1+1+2+1+2+1+2+2 43/18 = 2.38
8. Caravel 11x2 +2+1+1+1+2+2+1+2+1+2+2+1+1+1 42/18 = 2.33
---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
9. Sussex Tech 14x2 +1+1+2+2+2+1+2+1+2 42/18 = 2.33
10. Howard 15x2 +2+2+1+1+1+2+2+1 42/18 = 2.33
11. St. Georges 15x2 +1+2+1+1+2+2+2+1 42/18 = 2.33
12. Sussex Central 13x2 +2+2+2+1+2+2+2+1+2+2+1 45/20 = 2.25
13. Wilmington Christian 12x2 +2+2+2+1+1+2+1+1+1+2+1 40/18 = 2.22
14. Delcastle 14x2 +1+2+1+1+1+1+1+2+1+2 41/19 = 2.15
15. Mt. Pleasant 11x2 +2+1+2+2+1+1+2+2+2+1 38/18 = 2.11
16. Delmarva Christian 13x2 +1+2+1+1+2+2+1+2 38/18 = 2.11
17. Lake Forest 15x2 +1+1+2+1+1+2+2 40/19 = 2.105
18. Ursuline 6x2 +1+2+1+1+2+1+1+2+2+1+2+2+2+2 34/17 = 2.00
19. Indian River 10x2 +2+2+2+1+1+2+1+2+1+2+2+1+1 40/20 = 2.00
20. Charter 12x2 +2+2+1+2+1+1+1+2 36/18 = 2.00
21. Archmere 11x2 +2+1+2+1+1+1+1+2+2+2 37/19 = 1.94
22. Polytech 10x2 +2+2+2+1+2+2+1+1 32/17 = 1.882
23. Dover 8x2 +2+1+1+2+2+2+1+1+2 30/16 = 1.875
24. Penn 10x2 +2+2+2+2+1+2 31/17 = 1.823
-------------------------------------------------------------------
25. McKean 14x2 +1+2 31/17 = 1.823
26. Friends 10x2 +1+2+1+1+1+2+2+1+1 32/18 = 1.777
27. Newark Charter 10x2 +2+2+1+2+2+1+1+1 32/18 = 1.777
28. Tatnall 8x2 +2+1+1+2+1+2+1+1+1+2+1+1 32/18 = 1.777
29. Padua 9x2 +2+1+1+2+1+2+1+1+1 30/17 = 1.764

 

[Downstate4]

Ahead of tonight's games. As you can see, still a lot of moving parts...

1. St. E 15x2 +1+1+2+2+1+1+2+2+1+2+2+1 48/17 = 2.82
2. Woodbridge 18x2 +1+1+2+2+2+1+1+1+2 49/18 = 2.72
3. Sanford 13x2 +1+2+2+2+1+2+1+1+2+1+1+1 43/17 = 2.52
4. Conrad 13x2 +1+1+2+1+1+2+2+2+1+1+2+2+1 45/18 = 2.5
5. St. Thomas More 13x2 +2+1+1+1+2+1+2+1 37/15 = 2.46
6. Hodgson 15x2 +2+2+1+1+1+1+2+2+2+2 46/19 = 2.42
7. Cape 15x2 +1+1+1+2+1+2+1+2+2 43/18 = 2.38
8. Caravel 11x2 +2+1+1+1+2+2+1+2+1+2+2+1+1+1 42/18 = 2.33
---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
9. Sussex Tech 14x2 +1+1+2+2+2+1+2+1+2 42/18 = 2.33
10. Howard 15x2 +2+2+1+1+1+2+2+1 42/18 = 2.33
11. St. Georges 15x2 +1+2+1+1+2+2+2+1 42/18 = 2.33
12. Sussex Central 13x2 +2+2+2+1+2+2+2+1+2+2+1 45/20 = 2.25
13. Wilmington Christian 12x2 +2+2+2+1+1+2+1+1+1+2+1 40/18 = 2.22
14. Delcastle 14x2 +1+2+1+1+1+1+1+2+1+2 41/19 = 2.15
15. Mt. Pleasant 11x2 +2+1+2+2+1+1+2+2+2+1 38/18 = 2.11
16. Delmarva Christian 13x2 +1+2+1+1+2+2+1+2 38/18 = 2.11
17. Lake Forest 15x2 +1+1+2+1+1+2+2 40/19 = 2.105
18. Ursuline 6x2 +1+2+1+1+2+1+1+2+2+1+2+2+2+2 34/17 = 2.00
19. Indian River 10x2 +2+2+2+1+1+2+1+2+1+2+2+1+1 40/20 = 2.00
20. Charter 12x2 +2+2+1+2+1+1+1+2 36/18 = 2.00
21. Archmere 11x2 +2+1+2+1+1+1+1+2+2+2 37/19 = 1.94
22. Polytech 10x2 +2+2+2+1+2+2+1+1 32/17 = 1.882
23. Dover 8x2 +2+1+1+2+2+2+1+1+2 30/16 = 1.875
24. Penn 10x2 +2+2+2+2+1+2 31/17 = 1.823
-------------------------------------------------------------------
25. McKean 14x2 +1+2 31/17 = 1.823
26. Friends 10x2 +1+2+1+1+1+2+2+1+1 32/18 = 1.777
27. Newark Charter 10x2 +2+2+1+2+2+1+1+1 32/18 = 1.777
28. Tatnall 8x2 +2+1+1+2+1+2+1+1+1+2+1+1 32/18 = 1.777
29. Padua 9x2 +2+1+1+2+1+2+1+1+1 30/17 = 1.764

Huge downstate game between SussexTech at Woodbridge.. Could change a lot if Tech wins..

 

[ReturnOfTheGate]

Woodbridge won, so right now, they seem to be a lock for a top 4 seed.

 

[ReturnOfTheGate]

Last night had some interesting results.

Woodbridge handled Sussex Tech, which shocked me. That Henny title game with Cape should be very interesting.

McKean gets to 15 wins and picks up a bonus point with a win over Newark Charter. St. Andrews and Tower Hill left so if they win out, they're likely in.

Archmere knocked off Charter, which improves their position greatly.

Hodgson beat Poly and Poly might be in danger of missing the tournament.

Tower Hill stays alive with a win over Mount and probably costs the Green Knights a home game.

Padua stays alive, Dover's probably out.

Howard beat Appo, but will probably be short a few players for next Wednesday's Caravel game because of an on-court misunderstanding between players from both sides.

Wilmington Christian's getting hot at the right time, beat CR by 29.

 

[pksundevil]

Last night had some interesting results.


Wilmington Christian's getting hot at the right time, beat CR by 29.

And it was 39-6 at half... not sure what happened to CR. They had just given Sussex Tech a pretty good game.

 

[84rider]

And it was 39-6 at half... not sure what happened to CR. They had just given Sussex Tech a pretty good game.

core players for the future right now are 3 freshman & 1 sophmore, young players don't always show up, it's definitely a rebuilding and learning season. I like what the new coach is doing, imo she is building a solid team. talented freshman class coming in next season also.

 

[Hoops330]

How does last nights on court disagreement between Howard and Appo factor into the remaining games and standings?

 

[ReturnOfTheGate]

How does last nights on court disagreement between Howard and Appo factor into the remaining games and standings?

Howard needed a full compliment of players to have a shot against Caravel and a first round bye. That probably won't happen now with suspensions and whatnot.

 

[moneyballforme]

So when it’s Howard/Appo it’s a misunderstanding, but when it’s Glasgow it’s a melee. Interesting. From the video I saw it was an all out brawl with the majority of Howard’s team and fans on the floor.

 

[ReturnOfTheGate]

So when it’s Howard/Appo it’s a misunderstanding, but when it’s Glasgow it’s a melee. Interesting. From the video I saw it was an all out brawl with the majority of Howard’s team and fans on the floor.

I called it a misunderstanding more so as a Bernie Mac joke, but it was a fight. As far as caping for Glasgow/trying to insult Howard, nice try.

 

[Downstate4]

Another game tonight St.Georges at Cape.. 2 bonus points on the line.. Definitely shake up seeding..

 

[Hoops330]

So when it’s Howard/Appo it’s a misunderstanding, but when it’s Glasgow it’s a melee. Interesting. From the video I saw it was an all out brawl with the majority of Howard’s team and fans on the floor.

I personally didn’t witness it so I called it a disagreement

 

[moneyballforme]

Trust me, it was a brawl which resulted in Caravel/Howard game being axed. So much for the misunderstanding.

 

[ReturnOfTheGate]

Another game tonight St.Georges at Cape.. 2 bonus points on the line.. Definitely shake up seeding..

That could be a huge 4 points for St. Georges, for Cape it pretty much keeps them in the top 5.

St. E/Conrad tips in an hour. Possible title game preview on Boxwood Road.

 

[ReturnOfTheGate]

Conrad ROLLS 79-53. Still the favorites.

 

[Downstate4]

Conrad ROLLS 79-53. Still the favorites.

Wow..

 

[Downstate4]

That could be a huge 4 points for St. Georges, for Cape it pretty much keeps them in the top 5.

St. E/Conrad tips in an hour. Possible title game preview on Boxwood Road.

Was no contest.. Smh

 

[ReturnOfTheGate]

Cape could really be a surprise Final 4 team. Last important game of the weekend is Sanford at St. Thomas More tonight at 5.

St. E's senior day is tomorrow afternoon against St. Mark's, then I'll make a new thread with the updated index.

 

[Downstate4]

Cape could really be a surprise Final 4 team. Last important game of the weekend is Sanford at St. Thomas More tonight at 5.

St. E's senior day is tomorrow afternoon against St. Mark's, then I'll make a new thread with the updated index.

I really thought St. George's would give Cape a game.. But Cape jumped on them fast and never looked back.. Nice all around team effort... 33 piont win .. Looks like Cape will be at 4 or 5..

 

[Hoops7236]

Conrad ROLLS 79-53. Still the favorites.

Was at the game and Conrad dominated St. E’s big time. You better have your A game when you play Conrad. Best coached team in the state by far. That man knows his stuff.

 

[ReturnOfTheGate]

It helps when you have probably the best starting 5 in the state, but yes, John Kulesza's an outstanding coach. We deserve a Conrad/Sanford girls final. Want to see the former Sanford boys teammates (John and Marcus Thompson) match wits and talent.

 

[84rider]

It helps when you have probably the best starting 5 in the state, but yes, John Kulesza's an outstanding coach. We deserve a Conrad/Sanford girls final. Want to see the former Sanford boys teammates (John and Marcus Thompson) match wits and talent.

We deserve to see whoever earns it, sometimes the best teams don’t make it to the last call for alcohol

 

[Hoops330]

Sanford easily takes St Thomas Moore tonight. That’s what happens when you don’t really play any competition during the season

 

[pksundevil]

Sanford 57-24... that’s ugly.

 

[Downstate4]

Sanford wins easily over St. Thomas More..

Sanford 57-24... that’s ugly.

Bad part St. Thomas will get a first round for beating teams under 500..

 

[ReturnOfTheGate]

I don't like to cast aspersions on the point system because I think it actually works really well for our state, but a few schools get rewarded for some rather...unique scheduling and I don't think that's right. However if nothing else, the tournament will always separate the contenders from the pretenders.

New point projections thread will be up after this afternoon's St. E/St. Mark's game.

 

[Downstate4]

I don't like to cast aspersions on the point system because I think it actually works really well for our state, but a few schools get rewarded for some rather...unique scheduling and I don't think that's right. However if nothing else, the tournament will always separate the contenders from the pretenders.

New point projections thread will be up after this afternoon's St. E/St. Mark's game.

Can't wait to see your new one.. Little bit of change .. But not much..

 

[Hoops330]

Sanford wins easily over St. Thomas More..

Bad part St. Thomas will get a first round for beating teams under 500..

All teams should have to play 20 games to make the tournament! In my opinion

 

[Downstate4]

All teams should have to play 20 games to make the tournament! In my opinion

Ok..