2019 Girls Basketball Tournament Point Projections 3.0

[ReturnOfTheGate]

3 days of games left starting tomorrow night and we've still got quite a few moving parts. Here's what we've got following St. E's win over St. Mark's:

1. St. E 16x2 +1+1+2+2+1+1+2+2+1+2+2+1+2 52/19 = 2.73
2. Woodbridge 19x2 +1+2+2+2+1+1+2+2 51/19 = 2.68
3. Sanford 15x2 +1+2+2+2+1+2+1+1+2+1+1+1+2 49/19 = 2.57
4. Conrad 14x2 +1+1+2+1+1+2+1+2+1+1+2+2+1+2 48/19 = 2.52
5. Cape 16x2 +1+1+1+2+1+2+1+2+2+2 47/19 = 2.47
6. Hodgson 16x2 +2+2+1+1+1+1+2+2+2+2+1 49/20 = 2.45
7. St. Thomas More 16x2 +2+1+1+2+1+2+2+1+2 46/19 = 2.42
8. Sussex Tech 14x2 +1+1+1+2+2+2+1+2+1+2+2 45/19 = 2.36
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9. Caravel 11x2 +2+1+1+1+2+2+1+2+1+2+2+1+1+1 42/18 = 2.33
10. St. Georges 15x2 +1+2+1+1+2+2+2+1+2 44/19 = 2.31 (SOS over Howard)
11. Howard 16x2 +2+2+1+1+1+2+2+1 44/19 = 2.31
12. Sussex Central 13x2 2+2+2+1+2+2+2+1+2+2+1 45/20 = 2.25
13. Delmarva Christian 15x2 +1+2+1+1+2+2+1+2 42/20 = 2.20
14. Delcastle 14x2 +1+2+1+1+1+1+1+2+1+2 41/19 = 2.15 (H2H over WC)
15. Wilmington Christian 13x2 +2+2+2+1+1+2+1+1+2+1 41/19 = 2.15
16. Mt. Pleasant 11x2 +2+1+2+2+1+1+2+2+2+1+1 39/19 = 2.05
17. Ursuline 6x2 +1+2+1+1+2+1+1+2+2+1+2+2+2+2 34/17 = 2.00 (SOS/H2H over Archmere)
18. Archmere 12x2 +2+1+2+1+1+1+1+2+2+2+1 40/20 = 2.00 (SOS over Polytech)
19. Polytech 10x2 +2+2+2+1+2+2+2+1+1+1 36/18 = 2.00 (SOS over Lake)
20. Lake Forest 15x2 +1+2+1+2+2 38/19 = 2.00
21. Charter 12x2 +2+2+1+2+1+1+1+2+1 37/19 = 1.947
22. Indian River 10x2 +2+2+2+1+2+1+2+1+2+2+1 38/20 = 1.9
23. McKean 15x2 +1+2+1 34/18 = 1.8888
24. Tatnall 9x2 +2+1+1+2+1+2+1+1+1+2+1+1 35/19 = 1.84 (SOS over Penn)
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25. Penn 12x2 +2+2+2+2+1+2 35/19 = 1.84
26. Dover 9x2 +2+1+1+2+2+2+1+1+2+1 33/18 = 1.833
27. Newark Charter 11x2 +2+2+1+2+2+1+1+1+2 36/20 = 1.8 (SOS over Friends)
28. Friends 12x2 +1+2+1+1+1+2+2+1+1 36/20 = 1.8
29. Tower Hill 10x2 +1+1+1+2+2+1+2+1+1 32/18 = 1.777
30. Padua 11x2 +2+1+1+2+2+1+1+1 33/19 = 1.73

So if the playoffs started tomorrow:

9) Caravel vs. 24) Tatnall (winner gets 8 Sussex Tech)
10) St. Georges vs. 23) McKean (winner gets 7 STMA)
11) Howard vs. 22) Indian River (winner gets 6 Hodgson)
12) Sussex Central vs. 21) Wilmington Charter (winner gets 5 Cape)
13) Delmarva Christian vs. 20) Lake Forest (winner gets 4 Conrad)
14) Delcastle vs. 19) Polytech (winner gets 3 Sanford)
15) Wilmington Christian vs. 18) Archmere (winner gets 2 Woodbridge)
16) Mt. Pleasant vs. 17) Ursuline (winner gets 1 St. E)

 

[ReturnOfTheGate]

Almost every game Monday-Wednesday holds weight, so here are the important ones day by day

02/18

Ursuline at Dover (Ursuline could steal a home game with two wins, Dover needs a win to stay alive)

Sanford at Caravel (Warriors can jump into 2nd seed with a win, Bucs get a bye with a win now that the Howard game's been canceled)

02/19

McKean at St. Andrews (Highlanders need to win their last two to get in)

Woodbridge vs. Delmar (If Delmar wins, that's a bonus two points for the Henny South playoff teams, if not, Woodbridge just settles for an undefeated regular season and the 4th seed)

Charter vs. Tower Hill (Hillers need to win out to have a shot, Force still has an outside shot at a home game with a win)

Conrad vs. STMA (Conrad win sets up a tiebreaker with Sanford for 2nd, will probably go to Sanford on SOS, an STMA win secures a bye for them)

Padua vs. St. E (Vikes pretty solidly top seed, Padua needs a win to even have a shot at the tournament)

Delcastle vs. Appo (Cougar opponents are hoping they win because that would give them 15 and +.701 win percentage)

2/20 (The grand finale)

McKean vs. Tower Hill (potential elimination game for both teams)

Polytech vs. Dover (same as above)

Penn vs. Smyrna (Penn with a win and some help - Woodbridge beating Delmar - gets them in)

Ursuline at Gloucester Catholic (Raiders already set for the tournament, a win probably gives them a home game)

 

[84rider]

Nice work gatekeepersrefuge, it’s almost like your a damn good sports reporter haha, see what I did there

 

[ReturnOfTheGate]

Well I'm only semi-retired...lol

 

[Downstate4]

Well I'm only semi-retired...lol

Great job..

 

[DoItWrite]

A solid second half for Ursuline leads them to a 43-25 win at Dover. John Noonan got the entire roster into the game, including Whitney Grinnage-Cassidy, who's missed almost the whole season with an injury.

Sanford cruises past Caravel.

 

[ReturnOfTheGate]

Looks like we might have a weather problem on Wednesday and that could throw a wrench into the seedings.

 

[ReturnOfTheGate]

Howard/Caravel ruled a forfeit in favor of Caravel, that might push them ahead of Sussex Tech for a bye.

Woodbridge finishes the regular season 20-0 and that means Delmar finishes .500, taking away bonus points from those Henlopen squads in tourney contention.

Polytech picks up a huge win over Smyrna tonight, all but assures them a spot in the tournament.

Conrad handles STMA and Cape finishes strong with a win over Laurel. Woodbridge/Cape for the girls' Henny title should be a REALLY good game.

Waiting on the Delcastle/Appo final. A Delcastle win means 15 wins/.701+ win percentage and 2 bonus points for their opponents. A loss means just 1 bonus point and that could move things around a bit.

 

[ReturnOfTheGate]

St. Andrews beat McKean, which means St. Andrew's finishes 11-9 (didn't see that coming) and McKean pretty much has to beat Tower Hill (if that game is played) to get in the tournament.

Tatnall surprised Wilmington Christian, which might be good enough to get them in.

 

[ReturnOfTheGate]

Delcastle edged Appo 65-62, that's 15 wins/.750 in percentage and 2 bonus points for anyone who played them.