This will be the last one of these as after this week’s games we will know the final results. This week’s analysis will be a little more detailed as there are fewer permutations.
Nothing changed from last week except (unsurprisingly) the Opponent Wins (although it didn't change any seedings) and we now know the result of the Caravel/DMA game.
Assuming every team wins the games they are favored to win by looking at MaxPreps and Massey ratings (a big if), the final D2 playoff seeding will be as shown below. These are only the most likely seedings. There are still a broad range of possible outcomes for seedings, with only Woodbridge, Tower Hill, Howard and Delmar being guaranteed to make the playoffs.
Place | Team | Points/Game | Final Record | Final Points | Bonus Points | Total Points | Opponent Wins |
1. Woodbridge | 4.9 | 10-0 | 44 | 5 | 49 | 51 |
2. Tower Hill | 4.22 | 8-1 | 36 | 2 | 38 | 30 |
3. Howard | 4.2 | 9-1 | 39 | 3 | 42 | 43 |
4. Delmar | 4.0 | 7-3 | 33 | 7 | 40 | 56 |
5. Archmere | 4.0 | 8-2 | 36 | 4 | 40 | 47 |
6. Caravel | 4.0 | 8-2 | 37 | 3 | 40 | 46 |
7. Lake Forest | 4.0 | 8-2 | 36 | 4 | 40 | 41 |
8. Friends | 3.89 | 7-2 | 28 | 7 | 35 | 58 |
9. A.I. DuPont | 3.7 | 8-2 | 34 | 3 | 37 | 36 |
10. DMA | 3.6 | 7-3 | 33 | 3 | 36 | 46 |
Win/Loss Assumptions:
1. Woodbridge: Beats Delmar
2. Tower Hill: Loses to Friends
3. Howard: Beats Glasgow
4. Delmar: Loses to Woodbridge
5: Archmere: Beats First State Mil
6. Caravel: Beats St Elizabeth
7. Lake: Beats Milford
8. Friends: Beats Tower Hill
9. AI: Beats McKean
10. DMA: Beats Conrad
Bonus point assumptions – Certain|Projected (Opponent):
1. Woodbridge: 4|5 - Caravel 1|1, Friends 0|1 (Tower Hill), Archmere 1|1, Lake 1|1, Delmar 1|1
2. Tower Hill: 0|2 - Friends 0|1 (Tower Hill), Red Lion 0|1 (Charter)
3. Howard: 3|3 - Hodgson 2|2, A.I. Dupont 1|1
4. Delmar: 5|7 - St. Mary's 1|1, Parkside 1|2 (Rising Sun), Friends 0|1 (Tower Hill), Lake 1|1, Woodbridge 2|2, [1 possible but not projected bonus point from Easton]
5. Archmere: 2|4 - Woodbridge 2|2, DMA 0|1 (Conrad), Red Lion 0|1 (Charter)
6. Caravel: 2|3 - Woodbridge 2|2, DMA 0|1 (Conrad)
7. Lake: 3|4 - Friends 0|1 (Tower Hill), Delmar 1|1, Woodbridge 2|2
8. Friends: 7|7 - A.I. Dupont 1|1, Woodbridge 2|2, Lake 1|1, Delmar 1|1, New Church 1|1, Tower Hill 1|1
9. AI: 2|3 - Friends 0|1 (Tower Hill), Howard 2|2
10. DMA: 3|4 - Red Lion 0|1 (Charter), Archmere 1|1, Caravel 1|1
Notes on bonus point games:
1. DMA/Conrad: A loss by DMA would drop them out of contention, but also drop Caravel and Archmere to a 3.9 index and down one seed to the 6th and 7th seeds respectively, which would move Lake up into the 5th seed. Would be a big upset.
2. Red Lion/Charter: A loss by Red Lion would drop Tower Hill to the 3rd seed and put Howard in as the 2nd seed, and also drop Archmere to the 7th seed, which would move Caravel up to the 5th seed and Lake up to the 6th seed. Would be a huge upset.
3. Friends/Tower Hill: A loss by Friends would drop Delmar to the 6th seed, moving Archmere to the 4th seed and Caravel to the 5th seed. AI would drop to a 3.6 index tying them with DMA, and DMA would be in as the 8th seed based on opponent wins tie-breaker over AI. Would be a big upset.
4. Parkside/Rising Sun: A loss by Parkside would drop Delmar to the 7th seed. Would be a big upset.
5. Easton/Harford Tech: Only matters if Friends or Parkside loses, or Delmar beats Woodbridge. Easton winning would be an upset.
Index Ranges:
1. Woodbridge: Index range 4.9 – 4.4. Is in win or lose. 1st – 3rd seed
2. Tower Hill: Index range: 4.55 – 4.11. Is in win or lose. 1st – 4th seed
3. Howard: Index range: 4.2 – 3.7. Is in win or lose. 2nd – 8th seed
4. Delmar: Index range: 4.5 – 3.8. Is in win or lose. 1st – 7th seed
5. Archmere: Index Range: 4.0 – 3.4. Is in if they win and could be out if they lose.
6. Caravel: Index Range: 4.0 – 3.5. Is in if they win and could be out if they lose.
7. Lake Forest: Index Range: 4.0 – 3.4. Is in if they win and almost certainly out if they lose.
8. Friends: 3.89 – 3.44. Is in if they win and almost certainly out if they lose.
9. AI: Index Range: 3.7 – 3.2. Needs Archmere, Caravel or Lake to lose. Or Friends and one of Archmere, Caravel, Lake or DMA to lose.
10. DMA: Index Range: 3.6 – 3.1. Needs Friends to lose, or two of AI, Archmere, Lake or Caravel to lose.
Note: If Friends loses, AI drops a bonus point and DMA passes them on opponent wins.
Just to show how complicated the scenarios can be, the 1st seed could be Woodbridge, Tower Hill, or Delmar. This is based on the results of the Woodbridge/Delmar game, the Friends/Tower Hill game, the Red Lion/Charter game, and the Easton/Harford Tech game. That’s 16 possible outcomes just for the first spot. There are many, many more for the remaining spots.
Key Games:
1. Lake/Milford: If Lake beats Milford they are in. If they lose, AI is in at the 8th seed and Friends moves up to the 7th seed.
2. Friends/Tower Hill: Friends is out if they lose (not likely in my opinion). Tower Hill is the 2nd seed win or lose. If Friends loses, DMA is in at the 8th seed.
One interesting thing to note is that Archmere and Caravel are separated by only 1 projected opponent win and they both have 52 projected opponent losses. They share three games, St Elizabeth, DMA and Woodbridge. Red Lion/Charter for Archmere and St George/Concord for Caravel play each other this week, and Silver Oak for Caravel doesn’t play this week, so none of those games will impact the final numbers. That leaves 3 games for Archmere and 5 games for Caravel that could decide the opponent win tiebreaker between Caravel and Archmere.
The games are (opponent shown in bold):
Archmere: St Marks/Sallies (W), Tatnall/St Andrews (W), Mt Plesant/Middletown (W)
Caravel: St Andrews (W)/Tatnall, Glasgow/Howard (W), Laurel (W)/Seaford, Conrad/DMA (W), CR/Dover (W)
If Conrad beats DMA, it drops both of them down a bonus point and costs Caravel an opponent win without affecting Archmer’s opponent wins as Archmere played both of them. So Archmere would be the 6th seed and Caravel the 7th seed.
All three of Archmere’s opponents are projected to lose this weekend. If one of them wins, it puts the 5th seed out of Caravel’s reach.
If all of Archmere’s opponent’s games do go as expected, there’s a possibility that Caravel could tie Archemre on opponent wins at 47 and win the second tie breaker on opponent losses (51 Caravel to 52 Archmere).
Glasgow isn’t going to beat Howard, St Mark’s isn’t going to beat the Sallies and Mt Pleasant isn’t going to beat Middletown. But if St Andrews, DMA and Laurel win as expected, a CR upset over Dover would put Caravel in as the 5th seed and drop Archmere to the 6th seed.
So, a few additional games to watch this weekend for Caravel and Archmere fans are: Tatnall/St Andrews, CR/Dover, Laurel/Seaford.
Nothing changed from last week except (unsurprisingly) the Opponent Wins (although it didn't change any seedings) and we now know the result of the Caravel/DMA game.
Assuming every team wins the games they are favored to win by looking at MaxPreps and Massey ratings (a big if), the final D2 playoff seeding will be as shown below. These are only the most likely seedings. There are still a broad range of possible outcomes for seedings, with only Woodbridge, Tower Hill, Howard and Delmar being guaranteed to make the playoffs.
Place | Team | Points/Game | Final Record | Final Points | Bonus Points | Total Points | Opponent Wins |
1. Woodbridge | 4.9 | 10-0 | 44 | 5 | 49 | 51 |
2. Tower Hill | 4.22 | 8-1 | 36 | 2 | 38 | 30 |
3. Howard | 4.2 | 9-1 | 39 | 3 | 42 | 43 |
4. Delmar | 4.0 | 7-3 | 33 | 7 | 40 | 56 |
5. Archmere | 4.0 | 8-2 | 36 | 4 | 40 | 47 |
6. Caravel | 4.0 | 8-2 | 37 | 3 | 40 | 46 |
7. Lake Forest | 4.0 | 8-2 | 36 | 4 | 40 | 41 |
8. Friends | 3.89 | 7-2 | 28 | 7 | 35 | 58 |
9. A.I. DuPont | 3.7 | 8-2 | 34 | 3 | 37 | 36 |
10. DMA | 3.6 | 7-3 | 33 | 3 | 36 | 46 |
Win/Loss Assumptions:
1. Woodbridge: Beats Delmar
2. Tower Hill: Loses to Friends
3. Howard: Beats Glasgow
4. Delmar: Loses to Woodbridge
5: Archmere: Beats First State Mil
6. Caravel: Beats St Elizabeth
7. Lake: Beats Milford
8. Friends: Beats Tower Hill
9. AI: Beats McKean
10. DMA: Beats Conrad
Bonus point assumptions – Certain|Projected (Opponent):
1. Woodbridge: 4|5 - Caravel 1|1, Friends 0|1 (Tower Hill), Archmere 1|1, Lake 1|1, Delmar 1|1
2. Tower Hill: 0|2 - Friends 0|1 (Tower Hill), Red Lion 0|1 (Charter)
3. Howard: 3|3 - Hodgson 2|2, A.I. Dupont 1|1
4. Delmar: 5|7 - St. Mary's 1|1, Parkside 1|2 (Rising Sun), Friends 0|1 (Tower Hill), Lake 1|1, Woodbridge 2|2, [1 possible but not projected bonus point from Easton]
5. Archmere: 2|4 - Woodbridge 2|2, DMA 0|1 (Conrad), Red Lion 0|1 (Charter)
6. Caravel: 2|3 - Woodbridge 2|2, DMA 0|1 (Conrad)
7. Lake: 3|4 - Friends 0|1 (Tower Hill), Delmar 1|1, Woodbridge 2|2
8. Friends: 7|7 - A.I. Dupont 1|1, Woodbridge 2|2, Lake 1|1, Delmar 1|1, New Church 1|1, Tower Hill 1|1
9. AI: 2|3 - Friends 0|1 (Tower Hill), Howard 2|2
10. DMA: 3|4 - Red Lion 0|1 (Charter), Archmere 1|1, Caravel 1|1
Notes on bonus point games:
1. DMA/Conrad: A loss by DMA would drop them out of contention, but also drop Caravel and Archmere to a 3.9 index and down one seed to the 6th and 7th seeds respectively, which would move Lake up into the 5th seed. Would be a big upset.
2. Red Lion/Charter: A loss by Red Lion would drop Tower Hill to the 3rd seed and put Howard in as the 2nd seed, and also drop Archmere to the 7th seed, which would move Caravel up to the 5th seed and Lake up to the 6th seed. Would be a huge upset.
3. Friends/Tower Hill: A loss by Friends would drop Delmar to the 6th seed, moving Archmere to the 4th seed and Caravel to the 5th seed. AI would drop to a 3.6 index tying them with DMA, and DMA would be in as the 8th seed based on opponent wins tie-breaker over AI. Would be a big upset.
4. Parkside/Rising Sun: A loss by Parkside would drop Delmar to the 7th seed. Would be a big upset.
5. Easton/Harford Tech: Only matters if Friends or Parkside loses, or Delmar beats Woodbridge. Easton winning would be an upset.
Index Ranges:
1. Woodbridge: Index range 4.9 – 4.4. Is in win or lose. 1st – 3rd seed
2. Tower Hill: Index range: 4.55 – 4.11. Is in win or lose. 1st – 4th seed
3. Howard: Index range: 4.2 – 3.7. Is in win or lose. 2nd – 8th seed
4. Delmar: Index range: 4.5 – 3.8. Is in win or lose. 1st – 7th seed
5. Archmere: Index Range: 4.0 – 3.4. Is in if they win and could be out if they lose.
6. Caravel: Index Range: 4.0 – 3.5. Is in if they win and could be out if they lose.
7. Lake Forest: Index Range: 4.0 – 3.4. Is in if they win and almost certainly out if they lose.
8. Friends: 3.89 – 3.44. Is in if they win and almost certainly out if they lose.
9. AI: Index Range: 3.7 – 3.2. Needs Archmere, Caravel or Lake to lose. Or Friends and one of Archmere, Caravel, Lake or DMA to lose.
10. DMA: Index Range: 3.6 – 3.1. Needs Friends to lose, or two of AI, Archmere, Lake or Caravel to lose.
Note: If Friends loses, AI drops a bonus point and DMA passes them on opponent wins.
Just to show how complicated the scenarios can be, the 1st seed could be Woodbridge, Tower Hill, or Delmar. This is based on the results of the Woodbridge/Delmar game, the Friends/Tower Hill game, the Red Lion/Charter game, and the Easton/Harford Tech game. That’s 16 possible outcomes just for the first spot. There are many, many more for the remaining spots.
Key Games:
1. Lake/Milford: If Lake beats Milford they are in. If they lose, AI is in at the 8th seed and Friends moves up to the 7th seed.
2. Friends/Tower Hill: Friends is out if they lose (not likely in my opinion). Tower Hill is the 2nd seed win or lose. If Friends loses, DMA is in at the 8th seed.
One interesting thing to note is that Archmere and Caravel are separated by only 1 projected opponent win and they both have 52 projected opponent losses. They share three games, St Elizabeth, DMA and Woodbridge. Red Lion/Charter for Archmere and St George/Concord for Caravel play each other this week, and Silver Oak for Caravel doesn’t play this week, so none of those games will impact the final numbers. That leaves 3 games for Archmere and 5 games for Caravel that could decide the opponent win tiebreaker between Caravel and Archmere.
The games are (opponent shown in bold):
Archmere: St Marks/Sallies (W), Tatnall/St Andrews (W), Mt Plesant/Middletown (W)
Caravel: St Andrews (W)/Tatnall, Glasgow/Howard (W), Laurel (W)/Seaford, Conrad/DMA (W), CR/Dover (W)
If Conrad beats DMA, it drops both of them down a bonus point and costs Caravel an opponent win without affecting Archmer’s opponent wins as Archmere played both of them. So Archmere would be the 6th seed and Caravel the 7th seed.
All three of Archmere’s opponents are projected to lose this weekend. If one of them wins, it puts the 5th seed out of Caravel’s reach.
If all of Archmere’s opponent’s games do go as expected, there’s a possibility that Caravel could tie Archemre on opponent wins at 47 and win the second tie breaker on opponent losses (51 Caravel to 52 Archmere).
Glasgow isn’t going to beat Howard, St Mark’s isn’t going to beat the Sallies and Mt Pleasant isn’t going to beat Middletown. But if St Andrews, DMA and Laurel win as expected, a CR upset over Dover would put Caravel in as the 5th seed and drop Archmere to the 6th seed.
So, a few additional games to watch this weekend for Caravel and Archmere fans are: Tatnall/St Andrews, CR/Dover, Laurel/Seaford.
Last edited:
