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FINAL Projected State Tournament Pairings

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steviking14

Towel boy
Nov 25, 2010
57
0
6
Well here goes nothing:

#16 Milford (12-8) vs #17 Delcastle (12-8) winner gets #1 Concord (16-4)
#9 Howard (16-4) vs #24 Conrad (14-6) winner gets #8 Polytech (19-1)
#12 Dover (13-7) vs #21 DMA (14-6) winners gets #5 St. E's (16-4)
#13 St. Mark's (13-7) vs #20 Laurel (15-5) winner gets #4 Appo (17-3)
#14 AI (11-9) vs #19 Charter (10-10) winner gets #3 Sanford (16-4)
#11 St. George's (11-9) vs #22 Cape Henlopen (9-11) winner gets #6 Sallies (10-10)
#10 Smyrna (15-5) vs Dickinson (12-8) winner gets #7 William Penn (16-4)
#15 Hodgson (9-11) vs #18 Sussex Tech (10-9) winner gets #2 Mount (18-2)

Indexes/Tiebreakers:
1) Concord 2.55 Beat Mount H2H
2) Mount 2.55 Lost to Concord H2H
3) Sanford 2.40 Better SOS than Appo
4) Appo 2.40 Worse SOS than Sanford
5) St. E's 2.35
6) Sallies 2.30
7) WP 2.25 Better SOS than Poly
8) Polytech 2.25 Worse SOS than WP
9) Howard 2.15
10) Smyrna 2.05
11) St. George's 2.00 Better SOS than Dover
12) Dover 2.00 Worse SOS than SG
13) St. Mark's 1.95 Beat AI H2H
14) AI 1.95 Lost to St. Mark's H2H
15) Hodgson 1.90 Better SOS than Milford
16) Milford 1.90 Worse SOS than Hodgson
17) Delcastle 1.85
18) Sussex Tech 1.842
19) Charter 1.80
20) Laurel 1.75 Better SOS than DMA
21) DMA 1.75 Worse SOS than Laurel
22) Cape 1.70 Higher SOS than Conrad and Dickinson
23) Dickinson 1.70 Middle SOS between Cape and Conrad
24) Conrad 1.70 Lowest SOS between Cape and Dickinson


25 Delmar 1.684
26 Newark 1.65
27 Woodbridge 1.60
 
I''m pretty sure that Sussex Tech finished up at 9-10...not sure if that was a typo or could possibly effect your seedings. I wasn't expecting to see Sussex Tech & Cape both in the field.
 
Honestly doesnt look like any of the teams with bye has a easy bracket they all can be upset lol i think sanfond should will get by but everyone else??? Its gonna be a crazy first 2 rounds smh

This post was edited on 2/26 2:08 AM by Lomcfly
 
@steviking Nice job. This takes a huge amount of work. Any idea when the official seeds come out? Will be interesting to see how close they are to yours.
 
In the calculation, their true record of 9-10 was used. Accidentally typo-ed when I put 10-9 on the post. Shouldn't impact any of the pairings but thanks for correcting! I think some tough out of state games (Flowers, Randallstown, Bennett) helped them pick up some bonus points.

Pairings are usually announced around noon on Friday.
 
AI-Sanford looks like a great 2nd round matchup after what AI just did to Mount, and Delcaste-Concord also could be good after the way Delcastle just took Sanford to the wire.
 
I think Delmar snuck in at the #24 seed over Conrad & Polytech at the #7 to play the winner of #10 Smyrna vs #23 Dickinson.
 
@pksundevil - if this pans out, they better not look past Charter, Charter beat them already head to head (by 10pts)
 
I don't have an answer, but there's got to be a better way to pick the top 24 teams for the tournament. Let's say Viking's calculations are correct. Newark ended up 7-13, and I'm sorry, (I can say this they are my team), stunk this year. And they were a mere percentage points from getting in the field? Ridiculous. And you have a 10-10 team with a first round bye? In my head, this system just doesn't make sense.
 
@8yaz, the thing is w/ our state being so small & having a 24-team tournament every year you are going to get teams in w/ losing records...24 teams is probably somewhere near half of the amount of schools w/ boys basketball teams in DE. I have seen Newark as well this year and to be honest even at 7-13 I think that they are better than about 5 teams that made the field. The played a number of tournament teams very close...loss to Mt. Pleasant by 4, Charter by 7, Delcastle by 2, Polytech by 5, Howard by 2, William Penn by 2, Dover by 7. If they could have managed to win one of those games they probably squeeze in the field. With that being said I'd take them over all of the #20-#24 seeds in a head to head matchup vs Laurel, DMA, Cape, Dickinson & Delmar. If you give any one of those mentioned teams Newark's schedule I don't think that they win more than 7 games. I may be one of the few but I actually like the point system because it is set in stone and you know how it works so there is no question of who is in at the end of the year vs a board giving their opinions of who "should be" in.
 
choose your schedule wisely, Salesianum would had still made the tournament this year if they had only 6 wins if my math serves me right
 
And Conrad's 14-6 record looks good on paper, but they get a 24 seed. Why? They played 5 games against tournament teams, going 1-4, and all of those "good" teams are seeded 19th or lower. They cupcaked their way into the tournament.... Barely...
 
Originally posted by J12:
@8yaz, the thing is w/ our state being so small & having a 24-team tournament every year you are going to get teams in w/ losing records...24 teams is probably somewhere near half of the amount of schools w/ boys basketball teams in DE. I have seen Newark as well this year and to be honest even at 7-13 I think that they are better than about 5 teams that made the field. The played a number of tournament teams very close...loss to Mt. Pleasant by 4, Charter by 7, Delcastle by 2, Polytech by 5, Howard by 2, William Penn by 2, Dover by 7. If they could have managed to win one of those games they probably squeeze in the field. With that being said I'd take them over all of the #20-#24 seeds in a head to head matchup vs Laurel, DMA, Cape, Dickinson & Delmar. If you give any one of those mentioned teams Newark's schedule I don't think that they win more than 7 games. I may be one of the few but I actually like the point system because it is set in stone and you know how it works so there is no question of who is in at the end of the year vs a board giving their opinions of who "should be" in.[/I]
Click to expand...
Based on the many Newark games that I attended and the one Dickinson game I saw, Newark is a much better team. I saw Newark against MTP, Charter, Delcastle, Poly, Howard, and Penn. In all of those games, the reason Newark lost was always the same. They turned the ball over too much, shot poor foul shots, and had poor shot selection.
 
@pksundevil, from what I was told Delmar received that #24 seed & not Conrad.
 
@8yaz, I'm not saying Newark had a good year I'm just saying with 24 teams making the tournament in our very small state that each year you are going to get some "bad" teams in & even though you said they "stink" this year (LoL) my point was that if they stink then I'd hate hear what you have to say about the #20-#24 seeds this year because I don't think that any of them are better than Newark.
 
There are too many teams in the playoffs in de...it should be 16 tops but I would be ok seeing 20 teams with seeds 13-20 having to play a play in game..... then the state tournament would conclude with the top seeds playing the lowest seeds remaining...
 
@SWINGANDMISS, I know that you are a Laurel fan & I surely haven't forgot what Laurel did last year, I even mentioned it in an earlier thread & actually hope the downstate teams pull off some upsets every year so good luck to them. But every year is different & that was probably Laurel's first playoff win nearly 10 years or so but all I was saying was that I'd take Newark in a head to head matchup. Either way simply put Laurel got in, Newark did not & teams that are seeded that low don't usually make a deep run anyway so it's not a big deal.
 
24 teams with only one division is fine. Only one extra game for 16 teams who basically are playing a play in game. Makes it fun. Most teams above #8 are playing to win 2 games to get to the Bob. Last year a 12-8 Cape surprised everyone and made it to the semis.
 
Actually I'm just a downstate fan. But I saw Newark play Woodbridge and I would say Newark would have a time in the Southern Division and I'm sure it would be vice versa. I think that the tournament is wide open this year but in the long run I think an upstate team will win it all. I just believe upstate basketball has more depth.
 
I keep looking over and over, but even at 15-5 I don't see Laurel getting into this tournament. Only 4 games with bonus points( 2 games with Delmar, 2 games with Milford). Unfortunately Woodbridge and Indian River both finished 10-10 Trying to look up the records of those out of state opponents, but on maxpreps.com all of their opponents are under .500 as well.

Salesianum schedule = insane. Only got 20 points from their 10 wins, but 26 bonus points from their schedule.

Previous poster mentioned something about Salesianum getting in with a much lesser record, St. Mark's girls are a good example of that, they are 6-14, and will make the girls tourney.
 
If Laurel has 34 points, like you said, 34/20 = 1.7. Would still get in if the other indices are correct. I don't know Holly Grove's record, the other schools all finished at or below .500.


This post was edited on 2/26 11:51 PM by CountianJeff
 
Laurel should be 1.70, I think, unless one of their opponents' records is incorrectly reported on MaxPreps or something. Conrad should actually be 1.75 (I've gone over it like 3 times). The tiebreaker (all 3 teams played Seaford; Cape and Dickinson went 1-0, Laurel went 1-1; Cape then had a better SOS than Dickinson) would leave Cape at 22, Dickinson at 23, and Laurel at 24, with Delmar still just out at 1.684.

We'll see tomorrow.

This post was edited on 2/27 1:21 AM by bluecat4ever
 
Originally posted by skipsternicole:
St. Mark's girls are are 6-14, and will make the girls tourney.[/I]
Click to expand...
If I was the coach of that team I'd be embarrassed to accept the playoff invitation.










This post was edited on 2/27 7:26 AM by 8yaz
 
As previously mentioned by someone, I believe Delmar is in, and their index should be 1.74.

Delmar has 22 points from wins, plus

4 - Laurel
2 - Milford
1 - Parkdale (12-10)
2 - Parkside (15-5)
2 - Pocomoke (16-4)


33pts/19 games = 1.736
 
8yaz posted on 2/27/2015...

Originally posted by skipsternicole:
St. Mark's girls are are 6-14, and will make the girls tourney.
If I was the coach of that team I'd be embarrassed to accept the playoff invitation.

So in your world a team with a cupcake schedule should be rewarded, and a team with a challenging schedule should be punished? If you'd have every team schedule Salisbury Christian for every game and get rewarded for going undefeated, I don't think that would improve players or teach much. The St. Mark's girls are probably one of the best 16 girls teams in the state. They could schedule to get double-digit wins, or they could schedule to try to get better. They chose the latter.
 
@8yaz, so basically you are a fan or supporter of scheduling the cupcakes then? If all you had to do is win to get in the tournament no matter how good your opponent is then in your world I couldn't blame teams playing those weak Christian schools & out of conference games. It makes no sense to me to value a win versus say a Sanford or Polytech the same as a win versus Salisbury Christian or Delmarva Christian.
 
Sounds like Delmar may have jumped in the tournament w/ an even better seed than expected...I just got word that they'll be playing Dover in the first round in a #13 vs #20 seed I do believe. I'm not sure how accurate this is but if it's true then somebody gets bumped out. I think the official seeds come out at 12:00 PM.
This post was edited on 2/27 11:24 AM by J12
 
Cape gets in at #24 because of strength of schedule over Dickinson. Delmar play Dover, and Laurel plays St. Marks.
 
#8 Polytech vs #9 Howard would be an interesing 2nd round game...assuming Howard gets by #24 Cape (although nothing can be assumed come tournament time especially this year).
This post was edited on 2/27 12:14 PM by J12
 
@steviking Wow! Really close to the official brackets. Only a few slight seeding differences and 11-8 Delmar got in over 12-8 Dickinson.
 
8yaz, I'm confused. A 12-8 Dickinson team just got displaced by a 9-11 team, and you're glad that happened?
 
Dickinson was the worst team that I saw in person out of the the teams in the playoffs or in the hunt but they did get wins versus both #22 DMA & #23 Conrad which leads me to believe that neither of these two teams will pull off an upset in the first round or maybe not even be competitive for that matter. But hey somebody has got to snag those lower seeds.
 
Originally posted by pksundevil:
8yaz, I'm confused. A 12-8 Dickinson team just got displaced by a 9-11 team, and you're glad that happened?
Click to expand...
Listen, I think we all want the same thing, the best 24 teams in the tournament. I don't know who the 9-11 team is you are talking about, but I saw Dickinson play this year, and I know they aren't one of the top 24 teams.
 
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