2020 D2 playoff picture updated 12/05 3pm

[BackinBlack86]

1. Archmere 7-0 30+2= 32 (4.57)
2. #Howard 6-0 26+1=27 (4.5)
3.
4.

WB 5-0 20 (4.0)
RLCA 4-1 18+2=20 (4.0) St E
**Delmar 3-1 15+1=16 (4.0)
*Tower Hill 3-1 16+1=17 (4.25) Friends

St Marks 6-1 24+2=26 (3.71)
Newark 5-1 20+2=22 (3.66)

Howard 6 wins
Archmere 7 wins
St Marks 6 wins
Newark 5 wins

#Clinched conference and autobid
*school not participating in DIAA playoffs
** Doesn't meet 5 game requirement

 

[Titanium Shadow]

Delmar has a 4.0 index. 4 Seaford + 2 CR + 6 Milford = 12

12/3 = 4.0

 

[BackinBlack86]

Delmar has a 4.0 index. 4 Seaford + 2 CR + 6 Milford = 12

12/3 = 4.0

You only get 1 for losing to D1

 

[Titanium Shadow]

You only get 1 for losing to D1

I was including the likely bonus point from my calculations, but you aren't counting bonus points yet.

 

[BackinBlack86]

no bonus yet.. especially with covid and possible game cancellations.. Only going to count bonus when in the bank

 

[CityFielder]

What is the Henlopen South tiebreaker for automatic bid? (Assuming equal conference record and the teams did not play each other.)

 

[BackinBlack86]

What is the Henlopen South tiebreaker for automatic bid? (Assuming equal conference record and the teams did not play each other.)

Damn good question.. probably give the conference and autobid to the team with the lower index so both get in lol.. i kid..well maybe..there is a reason the conferences fought to keep those autobids..hmmm

 

[BackinBlack86]

Projection time..
I got these D2 teams giving off BP's Howard 2 Archmere 2 St Marks and DMA 1 (the winner of these two will give 2) , Delmar 1, RLCA 1 Bwine possibly 1 and Glasgow possibly 1

Only D1 team that matters here for BP is CR 1 or 2

Based on my projections.. Delmar is going to need the autobid to get in. Same for WB.

DM should win out and get 2 from CR they will post a 4.16 (if CR only 1 then 4.0)
Best WB can do is 20 or 4.0 (losing the Milford game on the schedule hurt)

I got Howard in, Archmere in, TH in and the Hen South auto WB or DM

If TH loses to St M and beats Friends again.. They will get 1 or 2 bp from St M 21 (4.2) or 22 (4.4)
If DMA goes 6-1 26+4 bp 30 or 4.28
If RLCA wins out 26 3 bp 29 or 4.14
if BWine wins out 26+2 bp 28 or 4.0 (chance to get 1 from Glasgow..then 29 or 4.14)
if St Marks wins out 24+3 bp 27 or 3.85

Not having a D1 #Charter win will eliminate St Marks from contention.

The 2 at large teams that get in will have at least 1 D1 win..

 

[Titanium Shadow]

If Delmar needs the auto bid to get in, then Woodbridge also needs the auto bid to get in.

 

[BackinBlack86]

Delmar vs WB tie break should both win out...will probably go to points against I believe that is what it has been and what was discussed by the conferences in the FB committee meetings regarding tie breaks for autobids..

Common opponents in conference

Seaford-
DM 27-6
WB 49-0

Lake-
WB 35-0
DM NC

Laurel-
DM ?
WB ?

IR-
WB 36-3
DM ?

Right now WB is +3

so I am thinking if I am coaching not only going for the win but trying for the shut out as well.. Starters stay in on D.... JMHO

 

[BackinBlack86]

If Delmar needs the auto bid to get in, then Woodbridge also needs the auto bid to get in.

correctumundo... well DM is in a better position to get an at large than WB...just Need DMA or Archmere to lose 2 and TH to lose both and CR to get to 6

It is interesting the CA game to WB is pretty much meaningless as far a play-offs..

If CR only wins 5 that will bring RLCA and BWine into play and a 1 loss DMA as well but only if TH loses both

I don't believe TH will lose to Friends at home with the play-offs on the line though..That is if Friends doesn't fft to them due to "lack of players".. That would suck and cause quite a stir as well lol

 

[BackinBlack86]

Another interesting observation.. If both Archmere and DMA go 6-1 then its likely they will have a 4.28 and St M would not then give TH 2 BP's leaving TH at 4.2 and out. DSC then would get both at large bids by a .08 index .. The winner of DMA v Archmere would get the higher seed..lol

 

[CityFielder]

There's one big risk for Tower Hill: if Friends has to cancel due to COVID. Only 4 games = no playoffs.

 

[BackinBlack86]

There's one big risk for Tower Hill: if Friends has to cancel due to COVID. Only 4 games = no playoffs.

True..there is that there is also a few very possible scenarios that when StM beats TH next week, that even if TH beats friends again or gets fft or if game is cancelled.. They will need a game week 6 and need a win to get in as they could come up .08 short. Do they dare call Caravel? Would Caravel take the game or tell them to pound sand? 🤔

 

[BackinBlack86]

updated

 

[BackinBlack86]

updated week 5 final

 

[Yunforce]

updated week 5 final

I think you missed Archmere’s D1 points from Charter.

 

[BackinBlack86]

I think you missed Archmere’s D1 points from Charter.

your right I did.. corrected , thanks

 

[BackinBlack86]

corrected DMA index to 4.5

 

[BackinBlack86]

So...

Howard is in, Appo game just for seeding..

*correction* Best TH can do is 4.2 .. If they beat Friends and St Marks wins 1 more but I guess that is a moot point

Best WB and Delmar can do is 4.0 but one will get the autobid (well unless Laurel pulls off the unthinkable)

Best RLCA can do is 4.0 ( will likely have more opponent wins than WB or DM).. Not playing DMA is going to hurt them more than DMA.. No BP from them or the chance to beat them to get in..also they didn't play St M so not getting BP from them either like Arch and DMA will

If Archmere loses to DMA they will likely post a 4.18

If DMA loses to Arch and beats St M they will post a 4.16

St Marks just can't get to 4.0 best they can get is 3.85

So the only way a 4.0 gets in is if either DMA or Archmere lose their last 2.. Arch won't lose to Conrad but DMA could lose to Arch and St M ..

The weirdness could come in if WB beats Laurel but loses to CA.. They still can win the Hen South bid but post a 3.2

** all predicated on no major upsets or crazy covid cancellations

 

[BackinBlack86]

Regarding Hen South assuming DM and WB win out.. "IF" points given up vs common conference opponent is the tie break (the only other thing would be margin of victory or coin flip)


Common opponents in conference

Seaford-
WB 49-0
DM 27-6

Lake-
WB 35-0
DM NC

Laurel-
WB 16-0
DM ?

IR-
WB 36-3
DM 21-0

Woodbridge now owns the common opponents points against tie breaker

 

[BackinBlack86]

updated

 

[First_state_gridiron]

If Dickinson does not play, how does that impact Howard

 

[BackinBlack86]

If Dickinson does not play, how does that impact Howard

It doesn't really. well a very little bit.. if they play and win their index actually would drop to 4.28

but Howard has a possible BP from Newark if Newark beats Bwine next week or 1 from Bwine if Bwine beats RLCA and Newark

If they get the BP then their index would go to 4.5 if they don't play or would be 4.42 if they play and beat Dickinson or get a ftt win.

So to answer the question it would be to Howard advantage (slightly) if the game got cancelled but it would have to be covid related and not a fft win..

I don't think they can get 1 seed regardless though over an undefeated DSC team.. They made up for Charter by playing and beating Appo which evens that but the DSC teams will have more BP's..

 

[BackinBlack86]

So regarding Hen South.. Benny was saying in the pregame that there was talk that WB v DM may be able to be played on a Tuesday.. Not sure how that will work because that would put 3 games in a week.. Interesting thought though to see how or if that can work..

so that would be playing this Friday then Tuesday and then a playoff game for the winner Saturday putting 4 days between the games.. Is this legal playing 3 games in 8 days or 9 days?

 

[Shine bright like a diamond]

No sure if it’s legal. But then everyone should have to play the no contest games. I am assuming that would benefit both of those schools. At the same time, it would probably eliminate one of the north D2 teams from playoffs.

 

[BackinBlack86]

No sure if it’s legal. But then everyone should have to play the no contest games. I am assuming that would benefit both of those schools. At the same time, it would probably eliminate one of the north D2 teams from playoffs.

Wouldn't really be a benefit point wise for either..would just determine the conference winner and autobid the loser would definitely be out.. assuming DM beats Laurel next week

 

[Shine bright like a diamond]

Ok. I like the idea of settling it on the field. And no one else gets screwed. But not sure it is safe to play that much football in 8 days. I would have to say I would be against this in the best interest of the kids. But if I was a high school athlete, I would be licking my chops.

 

[BackinBlack86]

updated

 

[ReturnOfTheGate]

Looking like that Red Lion/Brandywine game on Tuesday carries a lot of weight. Looks really simple for RL - win and you're in. Lose either one of those two and then the St. Mark's DMA winner gets that spot.

 

[BackinBlack86]

so.. Archmere will be the 1 seed and Howard the 2.. Archmere still has a guaranteed 1 bp from whomever wins between DMA and St M and they likely will get another from RLCA and post a 4.71. Howard may get 1 bp from Newark if they beat Bwine.. The best Howard can post is a 4.5

Hen South will get one in.. either WB or DM.. The odds favor WB will get the nod as they should. In my opinion

Leaves one spot for the 4.0's. I'll look at that later.

 

[BackinBlack86]

Looking like that Red Lion/Brandywine game on Tuesday carries a lot of weight. Looks really simple for RL - win and you're in. Lose either one of those two and then the St. Mark's DMA winner gets that spot.

St Marks can't get it. Best they can post is 3.71. Still have either WB or DM to contend with. Not having a D1 win is hurting St Marks. The door only opens for them if Laurel beats Delmar as well as RLCA losing one of those two

 

[BackinBlack86]

An interesting point about the RLCA v Bwine game.. For RLCA it's all risk little reward.. If they win they stay where they are at with a 4.0.. If they lose then they are out.. They do however pick up Bwines wins and that very well may be a difference maker in the tie breaks. hmmm...

It will be interesting to see if the committee looks at opponents wins as a tie breaker and deems it unfair to the teams that had multiple games cancelled thus giving them less teams to garner opponent wins from..hmmm... but it is written in the rules currently.. Teams that annually schedule 9 games take that risk every year so... what say you?

 

[BackinBlack86]

If DMA beats St Marks they will post 4.16 and get the last spot..no tie breakers needed..

Best DM or WB can do is 4.0

Best RLCA can do is 4.0

If St Marks beats DMA then it will come down to tie breakers between the 4.0 teams for the last spot..

 

[MightyMik]

I just watched the film on Howard because there furst two games you couldn’t see much. Let me tell you they are very good this year. Obviously defending champs but they have some really nice players. I’d be shocked if they don’t win it all again.

 

[BackinBlack86]

I just watched the film on Howard because there furst two games you couldn’t see much. Let me tell you they are very good this year. Obviously defending champs but they have some really nice players. I’d be shocked if they don’t win it all again.

I agree. I was going to post something similar last night... I actually would put them in top 3 in the state regardless of division.. Very good team with some real good players and humming on all cylinders.. I also think Tyair Spencer is being under-recruited and the QB Cartwright is underrated. Ignudo is a baller also.. Maybe we can put them in the D1 field as 3 or 4 seed..😯

This is my top 5

1. MT
2. Smyrna
3. Howard
4. Central
5. HVT/Sallies

 

[Titanium Shadow]

An interesting point about the RLCA v Bwine game.. For RLCA it's all risk little reward.. If they win they stay where they are at with a 4.0.. If they lose then they are out.. They do however pick up Bwines wins and that very well may be a difference maker in the tie breaks. hmmm...

It will be interesting to see if the committee looks at opponents wins as a tie breaker and deems it unfair to the teams that had multiple games cancelled thus giving them less teams to garner opponent wins from..hmmm... but it is written in the rules currently.. Teams that annually schedule 9 games take that risk every year so... what say you?

Without that Brandywine game, it would only take one upset for Red Lion to lose the Oppo wins/losses tie breaker to Delmar.

To make it so a team won't be penalized for missing games due to circumstances beyond their control, they should index Opponent wins/losses this year.

 

[First_state_gridiron]

The Football committee meets next Sunday (12/6) @ 9am. The meeting will available to watch via go to meeting so we can all listen to the discussion and thought process this year. Should be interesting

 

[Uncle Bumfuzzled]

The Football committee meets next Sunday (12/6) @ 9am. The meeting will available to watch via go to meeting so we can all listen to the discussion and thought process this year. Should be interesting

I don't know if you will get a lot of reflection at this meeting. My sense is that it is an exercise in assuring that there has been no careless mathematics. I have always been a point system person. It is neutral and easy to administer. Next year, when they go to 3 divisions based on the current plan it will be more equitable especially for D1.

Any tie breakers could require additional discussion...especially if they index opponents wins and losses as per titanium's thinking.

 

[MightyMik]

I agree. I was going to post something similar last night... I actually would put them in top 3 in the state regardless of division.. Very good team with some real good players and humming on all cylinders.. I also think Tyair Spencer is being under-recruited and the QB Cartwright is underrated. Ignudo is a baller also.. Maybe we can put them in the D1 field as 3 or 4 seed..😯

This is my top 5

1. MT
2. Smyrna
3. Howard
4. Central
5. HVT/Sallies

Bib I was going to say I would put them in top 3 in state if not maybe 1 just because there is no clear cut number 1 in D1 this year. Thought it was Hodgson at beginning than Smyrna now Middletown through their hand into mix. Spencer is a D1 college athlete in my opinion and Cartwright runs that offense with perfection. And #1 has that speed quickness coaches dream about. And on any given Friday/Saturday I’d put them up against anyone. And them big boys on the line do there jobs too.