2020 D2 playoff picture updated 12/05 3pm

[BackinBlack86]

** This is just an exercise for discussion, not based on current rules***

Just because for the hell of it, I am looking at the effect if they had gone to a uniform point system for this year instead of D1 and D2 points just because the effect of the point differences is stronger when dividing by 6 or 7 games instead of 10

For Div 2..

Archmere 6-0 24+1= 25 (4.16) Conrad
#Howard 6-0 24 (4.0) Dickinson
WB 4-0 16 (4.0) CA
St Marks 5-1 20+2=22 (3.66) DMA

DMA- 4-1 16+2=18 (3.6) St M
Newark 4-1 16+2=18 (3.6) BWine
RLCA 3-1 12+2=14 (3.5) BWine, St E
Delmar 3-1 12+1=13 (3.25) Laurel
*Tower Hill 3-1 12+1=13 (3.25) Friends

Howard 6 wins
Archmere 6 wins
St Marks 5 wins

#Clinched conference and autobid
*school not participating in DIAA playoffs


The obvious benefit would be for those teams that couldn't schedule a D1... St Marks, Newark.. It would make some of the games this week more meaningful.. Teams can up their index by winning instead of just maintaining a 4.0..

If St Marks beats DMA then they would get in

If DMA beats St M then you could have three tied for the last spot, DMA, RLCA and Newark. Of course the DMA v RLCA game got cancelled.. So none would have played each other so it goes to opponent wins.. which I am not going to try and figure out as its not the point of the exercise

 

[BackinBlack86]

Without that Brandywine game, it would only take one upset for Red Lion to lose the Oppo wins/losses tie breaker to Delmar.

To make it so a team won't be penalized for missing games due to circumstances beyond their control, they should index Opponent wins/losses this year.

If we're looking at trying to keep things as fair as possible with the scheduling issues and what not. The other thing they should have done and I heard it discussed at the football committee when they were deciding this stuff. Because of the stronger effect bonus points have when dividing by less games and the fact there are inequalities with cancellations and such causing teams to have a less of a chance to play a 5 or 6 win team as others, instead of say 5 wins being the qualifier for bp it should have been a win percentage.. ie.. If you play a team that wins 70% of their games then 1 bp and an additional bp for teams that win 85% or better

Under the 10 game system you need a 7 win opponent for bp so that's 70% and you get a 1pt bump for 9 wins or 90%

5 of 7 is 71% and 6 of 7 is 85%

so if you played a team that got cancelled to 5 or 6 games you would get bp's for them as such

5 game team would give a bp for 4 wins 80% and another for 5 100%

that would be the only change a 6 game team would still need 5 wins to give 1 and 6 wins to give 2

Who this could help? St Marks could get a bp from TH, CR could get a bp for Delmar thats the two off off the top of my head that matter

There are others not in the play-off mix like Milford could get one for Delmar.. basically anyone who played WB, Delmar or TH probably doesn't matter for most those teams but it could have.. which is the point of this exercise..

 

[Titanium Shadow]

For D2, St. Mark's would get a BP from DMA and one from TH (assuming TH and St. Mark's win this week). That would put them at a 4.0 index with 22 oppo wins and third seed. If oppo wins were also indexed, it would put RLCA back on top but Delmar and RLCA would only be one oppo win behind.

That makes it a lot closer as it should be.

 

[BackinBlack86]

Another interesting observation.. Everyone of St Marks opponents has a D1 opponent on their schedule except Friends..

 

[BackinBlack86]

For D2, St. Mark's would get a BP from DMA and one from TH (assuming TH and St. Mark's win this week). That would put them at a 4.0 index with 22 oppo wins and third seed. If oppo wins were also indexed, it would tie them with RLCA for oppo wins and they would only be one oppo win ahead of Delmar.

That makes it a lot closer as it should be.

True.. Charter should not count D1 plain and simple. They play in a D2 conference for goodness sakes...

The 3 non DSC teams St Marks played are much better than Charter and FSMA for that matter . If they beat DMA then at 6-1 they deserve a shot to get in they also played Archmere to the wire.. It is also a shame the DMA v RLCA game didn't get played it's an essential game.

I will also mention RLCA went to 2ot with Archmere and had they been able to execute a place kick they should have won that game twice (chip shot FG to win in regulation and a 1st OT fg both had exchange issues) before succumbing in the 2nd OT when going for two and the win failed.. 19-20

So.. There is a argument for RLCA if they go 5-1 just as much as St Marks at 6-1..

Is it too late to expand to 6 teams.. joking lol

what the hell let's look at it

RLCA and St Marks common opponents (4 scheduled)

Archmere-
RLCA-L- 19-20 2ot
STM-L- 10-14

Conrad-
RLCA-W- 22-8
STM-W- 36-6

STE-
RLCA- week 7
STM-W- 28-7

DMA-
RLCA- cancelled
STM- week 7

 

[JMoxon4]

Regarding Hen South assuming DM and WB win out.. "IF" points given up vs common conference opponent is the tie break (the only other thing would be margin of victory or coin flip)


Common opponents in conference

Seaford-
WB 49-0
DM 27-6

Lake-
WB 35-0
DM NC

Laurel-
WB 16-0
DM ?

IR-
WB 36-3
DM 21-0

Woodbridge now owns the common opponents points against tie breaker

From what I hear, possible tiebreak in regards to points given up to common opponents cap at a maximum point differential of 21 points for common opponents. But we wont know what they decide until the weekend. DM and WB both still need to get the job done Friday.

 

[BackinBlack86]

From what I hear, possible tiebreak in regards to points given up to common opponents cap at a maximum point differential of 21 points for common opponents. But we wont know what they decide until the weekend. DM and WB both still need to get the job done Friday.

If that is the tie breaker then it is already done. WB doesn't have to win just DM does and if that is the tie breaker then its done even if DM gives up 0 to Laurel


Common opponents

Seaford-
WB 49-0
DM 27-6

Lake-
WB 35-0
DM NC

Laurel-
WB 16-0
DM ?

IR-
WB 36-3
DM 21-0

Woodbridge owns the common opponents points against tie breaker and doesn't have to beat Caravel that game means nothing

 

[BackinBlack86]

Delmar has one shot of getting in and that is convincing the conference to go to a coin flip..

 

[Titanium Shadow]

The only reason Seaford scored on Delmar is because Delmar was playing their second/third/fourth stringers. Seaford scored thier TD with 8th graders on the field. Woodbridge played their starters against Seaford almost (or all of) the whole game against.

Right now that Seaford's touchdown against 8th graders is the difference in the points allowed in conference between Woodbridge and Delmar. That could change of course if Laurel can score on Delmar tomorrow.

 

[BackinBlack86]

The only reason Seaford scored on Delmar is because Delmar was playing their second/third/fourth stringers. Seaford scored thier TD with 8th graders on the field. Woodbridge played their starters against Seaford almost (or all of) the whole game against.

Right now that Seaford's touchdown against 8th graders is the difference in the points allowed in conference between Woodbridge and Delmar. That could change of course if Laurel can score on Delmar tomorrow.

I really don't think they are going to get into how and why the points were scored in the games but it is an argument for going to coin flip

 

[Titanium Shadow]

I really don't think they are going to get into how and why the points were scored in the games but it is an argument for going to coin flip

More of an explanation for those who didn't watch the games than anything else, but if I was Delmar's head coach I would make the argument.

 

[BackinBlack86]

updated..

 

[Titanium Shadow]

Delmar has 16 points as does Red Lion.

 

[BackinBlack86]

There is some talk on twitter about St Marks chances... They need RLCA and Delmar to lose..

 

[BackinBlack86]

Delmar has 16 points as does Red Lion.

yes I know.. it what is on there.. RLCA has 20

 

[CityFielder]

There really is no fair way to decide St. Mark's vs RLCA or Delmar vs Woodbridge (assuming both RLCA and DM take care of business tomorrow), given that both were impacted by COVID cancellations that might have changed the math. Really wish the DIAA/cmte would/could decide at the last minute to do a 6-team playoff, with each of those games Wednesday and the semifinals against Howard/Archmere the following Monday. Doubt they can (it would need DIAA full approval, with no scheduled meeting, right?), but it's rough for the loser of (essentially) the COVID randomness coin flip.