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D2 playoff pict. week 7

BackinBlack86

BackinBlack86

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Oct 5, 2018
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1. Tower Hill – 24+4=28 (@ St A, @ chris ,Friends) 9
1. Woodbridge – 24+4= 28 (laurel, IR,Lake, @DM)
3. DMA – 21+4=25 (St M, @FSMA, @CA, @ conrad)
4. Caravel - 20+4=24 (Concord*, @ silver oak, DMA, St E)
5. Howard – 22+1=23 (@newrk, AI, dick, glasgow)
6. Lake Forest - 22+0=22 (@seaf, laurel, @WB, @milf* )
6. A.I. Dupont – 18+4=22 (glas, @Howard, Bwine,@McKean)
8. Delmar – 17+4=21 (@IR, seaf, @laurel, WB)

St. Marks -15+4=19 (@DMA, @Kennett*, glass, Sals* )
Archmere - 18+0=18 (St E, RLCA, @Charter*, FSMA)
Brandywine – 14+4=18 (conr, newrk, @AI, dick)
Friends-12+4=16 (@tatnall, St A, @TH) 9
RLCA- 12+4=16 (@dick,@Arch, Seaf, Charter*)
St Andrews- 16+0=16 (TH,@Friends,@Conrad, Tatnall)

*Denotes D1
 
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Interesting development regarding RLCA. Looking at their remaining schedule its looking like they are going to give TH a BP o_O
 
Assuming ever team wins the games they are favored to win (a big if), the final D2 playoff points will be:

Place : Team : Points/Game : Final Record : Final Points : Bonus Points : Bonus Point Teams
1. Woodbridge : 5.0 : 10-0 : 44 : 6 :
Caraval 2, Friends 1, Archmere 1, Lake 1, Delmar 1
2. Caravel : 4.5 : 9-1 : 42 : 3 : Woodbridge 2, DMA 1
3. Howard : 4.3 : 9-1 : 39 : 4 : Brandywine 1, Hodgson 2, A.I. Dupont 1
4. Tower Hill : 4.22 : 8-1 : 36 : 2 : Friends 1, Red Lion 1
5. DMA : 4.1 : 8-2 : 37 : 4 : Red Lion 1, Archmere 1, Caravel 2
6. Archmere : 4.0 : 8-2 : 36 : 4 : Woodbridge 2, DMA 1, Red Lion 1
7. Lake Forest : 4.0 : 8-2 : 36 : 4 : Friends 1, Delmar 1, Woodbridge 2
8. Delmar : 3.9 : 7-3 : 33 : 6 : St. Mary's 1, Parkside 1, Friends 1, Lake Forest 1, Woodbridge 2
9. Friends : 3.89 : 7-2 : 28 : 7 : A.I. Dupont 1, Woodbridge 2, Lake Forest 1, Delmar 1, New Church 1, Tower Hill 1
10. A.I. DuPont : 3.8 : 8-2 : 34 : 4 : Friends 1, Howard 2, Brandywine 1
11. Brandywine : 3.3 : 7-3 : 30 : 3 : Howard 2, A.I. Dupont 1
11. Red Lion : 3.3 : 7-3 : 30 : 3 : DMA 1, Tower Hill 1, Archemre 1
13. St. Mark's : 3.0 : 5-5 : 25 : 5 : Archmere 1, DMA 1, Kennett 2, Salesianum 1
14. St. Andrews : 2.5 : 5-5 : 20 : 5 : Red Lion 1, Caravel 2, Tower Hill 1, Friends 1

Archmere wins tiebreaker over Lake Forest by number of opponents wins 47-38. Didn't calculate tiebreaker between Brandywine and Red Lion.

If DIAA counts the first playoff game of Maryland's playoffs, Delmar could end up with 2 bonus points from Parkside and be the 6th seed with 40 points and winning the tiebreaker over Archmere and Lake Forest 57-47-38.
 
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Lets do some projections.. why well its fun and NFL is boring lol

1-5 are in baring disaster

Lake 2-2 31 + 4 bp = 35 or 3.5
*AI 3-1 (or 2-2 ) 35 (31) + 3bp= 37 (33) or 3.7 (3.3)
Delmar 3-1 33 + 6bp - 39 or 3.9
Archmere 4-0 36 + 4bp = 40 or 4.0
*Brandywine 3-1 (or 4-0) 30 (34) + 3bp = 33 (37) or 3.3 (3.7)
Friends 3-0 28 + 6bp = 34 (35 if AI 9) or 3.77 ( 3.88)
RLCA 3-1 30 + 2bp = 32 or 3.2 (if they find a way to beat Arch than 35 or 3.55 not enough

* based on AI v Bwine game whick is pickem IMO

My thoughts.. AI and Lake both get bounced. Archmere will get in 4.0. Delmar will get in 3.9.

Friends can only get in if Milf beats Lake,,, AI v Bwine doesnt matter the best they can do is 3.7 and Friends will have a 3.77


3.77 will be the bench mark.. 10 game teams will need 38 pts

SO its comes down to Lake or Friends .. no pressure Milf lol
 
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I missed Friends 7 win .. for some reason thought they had 3 Ls.. arggh now I have to go adjust everything
 
biggest difference is. I don't think Lake is favored over Milf IMO especially at home and for the Bell
 
Massey and MaxPreps currently has Lake ranked higher than Milford, but I agree that Lake could easily lose that game.
 
I think its clear... MD week 10 won't count. At least this year maybe DIAA can change it for next year to allow the 10th game to be a play-off game provided it is in DE's reg season time frame..


4. For the DIAA state football tournament, the regular season is defined as a school’s first ten (10) regular season varsity football games and they must be completed by Saturday, November 9, 2019. This includes in state and out-of-state school teams
 
Titanium Shadow said:
Massey and MaxPreps currently has Lake ranked higher than Milford, but I agree that Lake could easily lose that game.
Click to expand...

computer LOL... I don't think those computers have watched very many games.. computer ratings don't mean squat until all the games have been played.. My eyes tell me Milford is better than Lakes one trick pony show
 
BackinBlack86 said:
I think its clear... MD week 10 won't count. At least this year maybe DIAA can change it for next year to allow the 10th game to be a play-off game provided it is in DE's reg season time frame..


4. For the DIAA state football tournament, the regular season is defined as a school’s first ten (10) regular season varsity football games and they must be completed by Saturday, November 9, 2019. This includes in state and out-of-state school teams
Click to expand...
From https://www.doe.k12.de.us/cms/lib/DE01922744/Centricity/Domain/348/Fall Tournament Manual 2019 9-7-19.pdf

Under Football Tournament, Item 5:

B. Out of State Opponents:
1. A member of the Committee will be responsible for contacting the out-of-state opponents of each school in contention for a tournament berth and obtaining their state Benchmark date enrollment. Schools that play out-of-state opponents need to send that school’s contact information to the Football Chairperson, Jim Comegys, by September 30, 2019. (james.comegys@colonial.k12.de.us)
2. For out-of-state opponents, the first 10 regular season games that they play in the 2019 season will constitute their 10 game schedule for the purposes of their final record. This may include playoff or tournament games.​

I'm not counting on DIAA including the first round of the Maryland playoffs, but the bolded statement above makes me question if they will or not.
 
BackinBlack86 said:
computer LOL... I don't think those computers have watched very many games.. computer ratings don't mean squat until all the games have been played.. My eyes tell me Milford is better than Lakes one trick pony show
Click to expand...

The computer rankings are definitely not completely accurate, but it made it easier to determine who was likely to win the games. I am certain that there will be some games that go the other way.
 
I see.. I bet they added that this year becuse of Maryland.. Parksides 10th game will clearly count... which they will win easily... Im going to go give DM the +1
 
I have no idea how Maryland playoff system will work this year, but if DIAA does count the first round of the Maryland playoffs, Delmar might get a point from Easton too.
 
8 teams from each region(4 regions) ..Districts dont matter anymore. Region is seeded 1-8.. Parkside is in 2A East.. They play down to 2 in the reagion than the regions come together and re seed 1-8 so its is now possible for two teams from the same district to make the final 8

here are the points after week 5
https://www.mpssaa.org/assets/1/6/19_points_breakdown_wk_5_(2).pdf

If this were the final points Parkside 4 seed would play Rising Sun 5 seed.

SO I retract my statement game 10 is no gimme for Parkside unless they can move to 1 or 2 seed. which doesnt seem likely.. Elkton, Harford Tech and North Caroline are all very good,, but I would think PS would beat RS at home but its not a gimme

here are the districts Parkside is 2A district 8
https://www.mpssaa.org/assets/1/6/ALL_Classifications_19-21.xlsx
 
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Easton would be a big stretch.. Doubt they beat Cambridge (5-1) and they will play either Elkton, North Caroline or Harford Tech and get blown out 1st round and if the somehow move up to 5th seed they would play Parkside so only one of them could give the extra pt.. Parkside beat Easton 31-14
 
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I respect St. Marks and what they are trying to accomplish...but I wish the Big S would play Howard the last game of the year for the City Title.

St. Marks could play whoever Howard was scheduled to play. The City Title is sacred. Why do we need to speculate. Play it on the field. Now, all we have to go on is the mutual games with Hodgson.

We did have probably the only city game this year with St. E's beating Tower Hill......
 
BackinBlack86 said:
Easton would be a big stretch.. Doubt they beat Cambridge (5-1) and they will play either Elkton, North Caroline or Harford Tech and get blown out 1st round and if the somehow move up to 5th seed they would play Parkside so only one of them could give the extra pt.. Parkside beat Easton 31-14
Click to expand...

I agree. Looking at possible playoff match ups, Easton would not be a favorite to win their first round game.
 
Titanium Shadow said:
Assuming ever team wins the games they are favored to win (a big if), the final D2 playoff points will be:

Place : Team : Points/Game : Final Record : Final Points : Bonus Points : Bonus Point Teams
1. Woodbridge : 5.0 : 10-0 : 44 : 6 :
Caraval 2, Friends 1, Archmere 1, Lake 1, Delmar 1
2. Caravel : 4.5 : 9-1 : 42 : 3 : Woodbridge 2, DMA 1
3. Howard : 4.3 : 9-1 : 39 : 4 : Brandywine 1, Hodgson 2, A.I. Dupont 1
4. Tower Hill : 4.22 : 8-1 : 36 : 2 : Friends 1, Red Lion 1
5. DMA : 4.1 : 8-2 : 37 : 4 : Red Lion 1, Archmere 1, Caravel 2
6. Archmere : 4.0 : 8-2 : 36 : 4 : Woodbridge 2, DMA 1, Red Lion 1
7. Lake Forest : 4.0 : 8-2 : 36 : 4 : Friends 1, Delmar 1, Woodbridge 2
8. Delmar : 3.9 : 7-3 : 33 : 6 : St. Mary's 1, Parkside 1, Friends 1, Lake Forest 1, Woodbridge 2
9. Friends : 3.89 : 7-2 : 28 : 7 : A.I. Dupont 1, Woodbridge 2, Lake Forest 1, Delmar 1, New Church 1, Tower Hill 1
10. A.I. DuPont : 3.8 : 8-2 : 34 : 4 : Friends 1, Howard 2, Brandywine 1
11. Brandywine : 3.3 : 7-3 : 30 : 3 : Howard 2, A.I. Dupont 1
11. Red Lion : 3.3 : 7-3 : 30 : 3 : DMA 1, Tower Hill 1, Archemre 1
13. St. Mark's : 3.0 : 5-5 : 25 : 5 : Archmere 1, DMA 1, Kennett 2, Salesianum 1
14. St. Andrews : 2.5 : 5-5 : 20 : 5 : Red Lion 1, Caravel 2, Tower Hill 1, Friends 1

Archmere wins tiebreaker over Lake Forest by number of opponents wins 47-38. Didn't calculate tiebreaker between Brandywine and Red Lion.

If DIAA counts the first playoff game of Maryland's playoffs, Delmar could end up with 2 bonus points from Parkside and be the 6th seed with 40 points and winning the tiebreaker over Archmere and Lake Forest 57-47-38.
Click to expand...
Actually New Church will end up with 9 wins this year. That would give Friends 2 BP for that game. Friends likely ends with 8 BPs and a 4.00 if they win out.
 
Throwbackjack said:
Actually New Church will end up with 9 wins this year. That would give Friends 2 BP for that game. Friends likely ends with 8 BPs and a 4.00 if they win out.
Click to expand...

That is a whole lot to go Friends way to get to that 4.0.. AI has to win 9.. Lake has to beat Milf, Neither of whuch I believe will happen but if it does... ANC will have close games with Pennington and Kiski.. The reason Titanium didn't give the 2 for ANC is because Kiski is ranked higher than ANC.. That is what he went by in his scenarios...

Even so if Friends can get to 4.0 then it goes to tiebreak between.

Delmar
Lake
Archmere
Friends

Delmar beat Lake
Lake beat Friends
Friends beat Delmar
Archmere didn't play any of them

looks like it goes to opponent wins... have to get ready for work will figure that out later...
 
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BackinBlack86 said:
If Titanium wants to project out all the opponent wins the next 4 weeks that's on him lol I doubt Lake has a shot of making up the difference though so in this scenario Lake gets the boot
Click to expand...

Projected opponent wins:

Delmar 57
Friends 57
Archemre 38

Would still be tied, so second tiebreaker.

Projected opponent losses:
Delmar 40
Friends 30

Friends benefits from only having 9 games here and not playing Seaford and IR (17 loss just for those two).

We're still too far out to know with any certainty at this point who the 6-8 seeds will be.
 
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Your looking at seeding all my exercises were for just getting in the tournament so Lake would still be outside looking in? I don't think it really matters 6,7,8 still on the road 1st round vs a top 3 team. Although I doubt a northern team would relish traveling to Woodbridge to play them. Interesting enough Delmar, Friends and Archmere will all have already played WB once hmmmo_O


vector-cartoon-image-head-man-260nw-431190583.jpg
 
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Uncle Bumfuzzled said:
I respect St. Marks and what they are trying to accomplish...but I wish the Big S would play Howard the last game of the year for the City Title.

St. Marks could play whoever Howard was scheduled to play. The City Title is sacred. Why do we need to speculate. Play it on the field. Now, all we have to go on is the mutual games with Hodgson.

We did have probably the only city game this year with St. E's beating Tower Hill......
Click to expand...

St. E's beating Tower Hill? Hillers won 30-7.
 
pksundevil said:
St. E's beating Tower Hill? Hillers won 30-7.
Click to expand...

My faux pas. St. Lizzies just beat Tatnall. Somehow I typed the wrong school obviously. It still bugs me that there are very few city series games. Having said that I better check Charter's schedule. Yes, Charter did play Tower Hill!! 2 city games.
 
I was told that Lake Forrest lost both their QB and RB (due to injuries) against Delmar. Anyone know if this is true and extent of injuries? The QB is very quick and does a nice job of extending plays and the RB runs hard. Losing either of them could have a big impact with WB and Milford on the horizon.
 
If the RB is Johnson he is 75% of their offense.. not counting mop up stats by others during blow outs. The QB is second on the team in rushing but has only attempted 20 passes completing 12.. Lake averages 3 pass attempts a game more of a loss as a ying to Johnsons yang... see what I did there? lol
 
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Titanium Shadow said:
Projected opponent wins:

Delmar 57
Friends 57
Archemre 38

Would still be tied, so second tiebreaker.

Projected opponent losses:
Delmar 40
Friends 30

Friends benefits from only having 9 games here and not playing Seaford and IR (17 loss just for those two).

We're still too far out to know with any certainty at this point who the 6-8 seeds will be.
Click to expand...

Delmar 57
Friends 57
Archemre 38
.
Titanium in this scenario it would revert back to the 1st tie breaker head to head which Friends has that
 
Tower Hill, Woodbridge, DMA, Caravel and Howard would have to collapse to miss out on the playoffs. The last three spots are contested between 5 teams.

Lake will beat Seaford and Laurel and has to beat either WB (not likely) or Milford (possible) to get in.

AI has to win out to get in. This means beating Howard (not likely) and Brandywine (favored) plus Glasgow and McKean (likely). AI is the least likely of the 5 to get in.

Friends has to win out (likely) and get help form somebody (most likely Milford) to get in. Although depending on bonus points (New Church wins out) could still get in without help.

Delmar has to beat IR, Seaford and Laurel (if they lose to any of those three they don't deserve to get in) but can lose to Woodbridge and still get in. Although depending on bonus points (St. Mary's loses one of their next 3, New Church wins out and Lake beats Milford) could miss out unless they beat Woodbridge.

Archmere has to win out to get into get in (likely, their hardest reaming game is against Red Lion).​

The Lake-Milford game looks to be big. If Lake wins it will come down to bonus points and tiebreakers as to which of the remaining 4 teams get the last three spots. If Lake loses to Milford it will most likely be Friends, Delmar and Archmere.
 
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Actually looking at DMA's schedule again, there is a possibility they could lose to St. Mark's and miss out on the playoffs, which would throw all the above predictions out the window. Not likely, but St. Mark's lost a close game to Archmere and DMA won a close one against them. Massey has DMA as a 3 point favorite and MaxPreps has DMA as a 12.5 point favorite.

DMA can still lose to Caravel (likely) if they win their other three and still make it in. The other two are against FSMA and Conrad, easy wins.

Edit: If Lake Loses to Milford in Week 10, the loser of the DMA/Caravel game can still make it in. Looks like they would be in a tiebreaker with AI.
 
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Lake can go 3-1 and be at that 4.0 but not guaranteed in.... If it goes to the tie 4.0 breaker scenario they would be out.

To be honest Lake should be the one out between the 4 as they had the weakest schedule by far.
 
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