FINAL PROJECTIONS 02/21/18

[GateKeeperRefugee]

All the games that matter are over now so here's what I think the DIAA committee will release (or something close to it) on Friday:

1. Caravel 15x2 +1+2+1+1+1+2+2+2+2+2+1+2+2+2+2 55/20 = 2.75
2. Conrad 17x2 +2+2+1+2+2+1+2+2+1+2+1 52/20 = 2.6
3. Sanford 17x2 +1+2+2+1+2+2+2+2+2 50/20 = 2.5
4. Hodgson 18x2 +2+2+2+1+1+2+2+1+1 49/20 = 2.45
5. St. E 16x2 +1+2+1+2+1+2+1+2+1 45/19 = 2.36
6. Howard 15x2 +1+2+2+1+1+2+2+2+1+1+2 47/20 = 2.35
7. Ursuline 9x2 +1+2+1+1+2+1+2+2+2+2+2+1+1+2+2+2 44/19 = 2.3157
8. Sussex Tech 17x2 +1+1+2+2+1+1+1 43/20 = 2.15
9. St. Thomas More 14x2 +2+1+1+2+2+2 38/18 = 2.1111
10. Appo 12x2 +1+2+2+2+2+2+1+2+1+2+1 42/20 = 2.1 (Appo's SOS >>>> Archmere's)
11. Archmere 12x2 +1+2+1+1+1+1+1+2+2+2+2+2 42/20 = 2.1 (Archmere's SOS >>> St. George's)
12. St. Georges 17x2 +1+1+2+1+1+2 42/20 = 2.1
13. Newark Charter 13x2 +2+2+1+1+1+2+1+2+2 40/20 = 2.0
14. CR 13x2 +2+2+2+2+2+1+2 39/20 = 1.95 (CR's SOS >>>> Padua's)
15. Padua 14x2 +1+1+2+1+2+1+1+1+1 39/20 = 1.95 (Padua SOS >>>> Tatnall's)
16. Tatnall 15x2 +1+1+2+1+2+1+1 39/20 = 1.95 (Tatnall's SOS >>> Delmarva Christian's)
17. Delmarva Christian 16x2 +1+1+2+2+1 39/20 = 1.95
18. Wilmington Christian 14x2 +2+2+2+1+2+1 38/20 = 1.9 (Wilmington Christian's SOS >>>> Woodbridge's)
19. Woodbridge 16x2 +1+1+1+1+2+2 38/20 = 1.9
20. Dickinson 15x2 +1+2+1+2 36/19 = 1.8947
21. Concord 9x2 +2+1+2+2+1+2+2+1+2+1+2 36/20 = 1.8
22. St. Mark’s 11x2 +1+2+1+2+2+2+1+2 35/20 = 1.75
23. Sussex Central 9x2 +1+2+2+1+2+2+2+1+2 33/20 = 1.65 (Sussex Central SOS >>> Delcastle's)
24. Delcastle 11x2 +2+2+1+2+2+1+1 33/20 = 1.65 (Delcastle wins head to head tiebreaker over Mount)
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25. Mt. Pleasant 9x2 +2+2+2+1+1+1+2+2+2 33/20 = 1.65

So first round match-ups would be:

9 STMA vs 24 Delcastle
10 Appo vs 23 Sussex Central
11 Archmere vs 22 St. Mark's
12 St. Georges vs 21 Concord
13 Newark Charter vs 20 Dickinson
14 CR vs 19 Woodbridge
15 Padua vs 18 Wilmington Christian
16 Tatnall vs 17 Delmarva Christian

Byes:

1. Caravel
2. Conrad
3. Sanford
4. Hodgson
5. St. E
6. Howard
7. Ursuline
8. Sussex Tech

 

[Sports_Fan72]

Delmarva Christian lost to Sussex Academy tonight. Let that sink in.

 

[GateKeeperRefugee]

They won't be long for this tournament. Honestly, I feel like they steal a spot each year because they play a largely Maryland-based schedule and their best win against a DE team is against Wilmington Christian.

 

[Art Corvelay]

Where did Cape end up? it looked like they may sneak in at 10-10.

 

[GateKeeperRefugee]

By my calcs, Cape ended with a 1.6 index (32/20). They needed just one more win and they would've jumped Delcastle and Central.

 

[DoItWrite]

St. Thomas More was 12-4 a few days ago. They picked up a forfeit over Tri-State Christian, and now the canceled game at Ss. Peter and Paul is listed as a forfeit win. That would make them 14-4 and eligible for the tourney, and I see you have them in. I have seen the Ravens, and they could win a game or two.

 

[Art Corvelay]

thanks - I had them at 33 - how would a 4 way tie be broken. Opponents SOS?

 

[GateKeeperRefugee]

If they haven't played each other, SOS is the tiebreaker.

 

[GateKeeperRefugee]

St. Thomas More was 12-4 a few days ago. They picked up a forfeit over Tri-State Christian, and now the canceled game at Ss. Peter and Paul is listed as a forfeit win. That would make them 14-4 and eligible for the tourney, and I see you have them in. I have seen the Ravens, and they could win a game or two.

It looks like they could. A 2nd round matchup of STMA/Sussex Tech would be great because they're both young teams with talent.

 

[Sports_Fan72]

I’d take STMA in that matchup

 

[GateKeeperRefugee]

I would too. CR could be a match-up problem for Sanford in the 2nd round too.

 

[Onlooker7]

I would too. CR could be a match-up problem for Sanford in the 2nd round too.

I don't profess to know a whole lot about Sanford's team but I did read that they went undefeated in the state. CR on the other hand has lost (by double digits in every game but one) to every team from up North that they have faced with the exception of a weak DMA team. I think this maybe wishful thinking at best.

 

[Filmore00]

I don't profess to know a whole lot about Sanford's team but I did read that they went undefeated in the state. CR on the other hand has lost (by double digits in every game but one) to every team from up North that they have faced with the exception of a weak DMA team. I think this maybe wishful thinking at best.

Sanford also did not play St. E’s or Conrad. Sanford conference is very very weak & don’t be surprised if it cost them come tournament time. Sanford will lose to Ursuline if the play in the quarters. Caravel should of beat them the other night and I think Caravel would like another shot.

 

[pksundevil]

Sanford also did not play St. E’s or Conrad. Sanford conference is very very weak & don’t be surprised if it cost them come tournament time. Sanford will lose to Ursuline if the play in the quarters. Caravel should of beat them the other night and I think Caravel would like another shot.

Sanford will lose to Ursuline? They just beat them 59-38.

 

[Justabasketballfan]

Listen. I know there are some down state representatives on here who want to really give those down state school some shout outs. but honestly there only a couple of schools down state that will closely come really making some noise in the tournament. there are only two teams i see winning based on how the brackets fall today at 2pm. caravel and Sanford are the best on paper. I have those two teams in the chip this year, unless the next three surprises them in the semi or final four. other outside teams are conrad, st. elizabeth, and ursuline. Again how ever the brackets fall. others that could scare those teams are hodgson, and howard. now the only down state teams that even come close to competing against any of them is st. thomas more, cr, and sussex tech. and those three have been blown out by one or more of these teams except st thomas more who beat hodgson in a close game. But it is wishful thinking if your going to beat those other five teams.

 

[Filmore00]

Sanford will lose to Ursuline? They just beat them 59-38.

Ursuline didn’t have there 2 post players which will make a huge difference. There 2 post player played vs Cardinal O’Hara, Conrad, & St. E’s and were difference makers.

 

[Justabasketballfan]

Ursuline didn’t have there 2 post players which will make a huge difference. There 2 post player played vs Cardinal O’Hara, Conrad, & St. E’s and were difference makers.

I would love to think that they would make a difference. but both are still coming back from injury. Kay Wulah is still having a hard time getting up and down the floor as well as Olivia. The can clog the lane but they wont give much offense as they typically would if not injured. there minutes will be reduced. When they played Sanford Sam had her way with them in the middle. She finished with 20 points and a Sanford beat down. Ursuline's weakness is the paint area this year.

 

[SenatorPride]

Listen. I know there are some down state representatives on here who want to really give those down state school some shout outs. but honestly there only a couple of schools down state that will closely come really making some noise in the tournament. there are only two teams i see winning based on how the brackets fall today at 2pm.

Since I'm a downstate rep I'll agree with you, but the downstate talent level is approving if not already on par with up north but until the coaching follows suit this will always be the case IMHO.

 

[COACH"D"]

What’s up with st. Thomas more with two forfeits at the end of the year giving them enough games. Anyone know ????????

 

[GateKeeperRefugee]

My guess is the schools they were scheduled to play didn't want to play and they agreed to forfeit. They were both private schools so I imagine it doesn't hurt their respective state tournament goals.

 

[Justabasketballfan]

Since I'm a downstate rep I'll agree with you, but the downstate talent level is approving if not already on par with up north but until the coaching follows suit this will always be the case IMHO.

I would Love to think that they are on par as talent. i think effort is more on par. and the only reason i say talent is not there yet with the northern teams is because the kids up here have facilities to play in and more leagues to play-in year round. i talked to a coach down south and he said they have a hard time getting use of a facility to practice or train. There is no "hicks" anderson center, and boys and girls clubs that the kids can go to. They have AAU and summer league with there high school. the kids up here. have AAU, Summer league, Duffy, silk league, and training. Both can get into the y, but it is not the same. So i think the down state kids have a hard uphill battle when trying to compete against all of that. And i wont even go into coaching. Cause that is an issue everywhere. And as long as the coaching is bad in some of these schools the normal teams will keep being in the chip every year. if the some of the Athletic directors stop highering there friends in those positions maybe there would be better parody in high school system. But that's another story..

 

[Justabasketballfan]

What’s up with st. Thomas more with two forfeits at the end of the year giving them enough games. Anyone know ????????

the one team freire charter had to end there season due to kids injuries and grades. The team only had 7 players and couldn't field a team the rest of the season. not sure of the other schools

 

[Simmonj4618]

I would Love to think that they are on par as talent. i think effort is more on par. and the only reason i say talent is not there yet with the northern teams is because the kids up here have facilities to play in and more leagues to play-in year round.

The raw talent is there. I'm looking at it from the grassroots and the younger age levels let say 5th to 8th grade middle school level were raw talent is better assessed. Real development starts in maybe in the 7th grade on into HS. Downstate has equal or in some cases more raw talent then up upstate. The reason I believe this because several facts:

In some case we do have decent middle school programs down here. You will be hard press to find a middle school team in the state that could beat Beacon girls this year period! Dover Central and CR's middle school's have decent programs that I will put up against any team up state.

Three years ago the talented Kulesza sisters and the Whittlesey girl from an undefeated Conrad Middle School that everybody thought nobody could beat came down and got smack by Central Middle School and Kayla Barnes in the Capital Classic. A couple years earlier a totally stacked undefeated Gauger-Cobbs girls team w/ Kaynour Wulah, Senay Clark, A'maja Mack, Kanisa Tucker and Trinity Brittingham got torn apart by Mariner. STMA with 3 freshman goes into the Bob and almost beat favorite Concord with Sasha Marvel, Anhia Patterson, Simmons.

Why 2 to 3 years later those girls up north are up for All-State honors or their teams are playing deep in the playoffs, how can things change so much to account for the deep drop off from down state teams in that short period of time? You hit on them, but downstate has talent it's just not molded.

 

[Justabasketballfan]

The raw talent is there. I'm looking at it from the grassroots and the younger age levels let say 5th to 8th grade middle school level were raw talent is better accessed. Real development starts in maybe in the 7th grade on into HS. Downstate has equal or in some cases more raw talent then up upstate. The reason I believe this because several facts:

In some case we do have decent middle school programs down here. You will be hard press to find a middle school team in the state that could beat Beacon girls this year period! Dover Central and CR's middle school's have decent programs that I will put up against any team up state.

Three years ago the talented Kulesza sisters and the Whittlesey girl from an undefeated Conrad Middle School that everybody thought nobody could beat came down and got smack by Central Middle School and Kayla Barnes in the Capital Classic. A couple years earlier a totally stacked undefeated Gauger-Cobbs girls team w/ Kaynour Wulah, Senay Clark, A'maja Mack, Kanisa Tucker and Trinity Brittingham got torn apart by Mariner. STMA with 3 freshman goes into the Bob and almost beat favorite Concord with Sasha Marvel, Anhia Patterson, Simmons.

Why 2 to 3 years later those girls up north are up for All-State honors or their teams are playing deep in the playoffs, how can things change so much to account for the deep drop off from down state teams in that short period of time? You hit on them but the raw talent is down here just not molded.

yes- i was at the game when that guager -cobb team smacked. i was shocked at the same time mad like how in the world did this team beat them like this.. and the boys side was tough down there too. yes i will have to agree not sure why there is a big drop off when they get to high school. one would think why not have them go to one school? i don't have the total answer. but i will say the coaching all around is not good in the high school level. but i will say this, there are some schools that cant get kids and have great coaching and then there is talented teams with bad coaching. so its rough either way.

 

[Sports_Fan72]

Let’s not forget Edison Charter with Taelynn Brooks .... I believe undefeated for 3 years ... and lost in Championship at Capital Classic to a Postlethwait Middle girl’s team that had Jada McCullough (CR) & Jazmine Kelam (Polytech).

 

[Simmonj4618]

Please don't tell me the points system can't be manipulated STMA should have a class for other AD's SMH #5 seed and will walk into the quater finals!

Let’s not forget Edison Charter with Taelynn Brooks .... I believe undefeated for 3 years ... and lost in Championship at Capital Classic to a Postlethwait Middle girl’s team that had Jada McCullough (CR) & Jazmine Kelam (Polytech).

I was going to mention them also they had some very good teams!

 

[Filmore00]

the one team freire charter had to end there season due to kids injuries and grades. The team only had 7 players and couldn't field a team the rest of the season. not sure of the other schools

The raw talent is there. I'm looking at it from the grassroots and the younger age levels let say 5th to 8th grade middle school level were raw talent is better assessed. Real development starts in maybe in the 7th grade on into HS. Downstate has equal or in some cases more raw talent then up upstate. The reason I believe this because several facts:

In some case we do have decent middle school programs down here. You will be hard press to find a middle school team in the state that could beat Beacon girls this year period! Dover Central and CR's middle school's have decent programs that I will put up against any team up state.

Three years ago the talented Kulesza sisters and the Whittlesey girl from an undefeated Conrad Middle School that everybody thought nobody could beat came down and got smack by Central Middle School and Kayla Barnes in the Capital Classic. A couple years earlier a totally stacked undefeated Gauger-Cobbs girls team w/ Kaynour Wulah, Senay Clark, A'maja Mack, Kanisa Tucker and Trinity Brittingham got torn apart by Mariner. STMA with 3 freshman goes into the Bob and almost beat favorite Concord with Sasha Marvel, Anhia Patterson, Simmons.

Why 2 to 3 years later those girls up north are up for All-State honors or their teams are playing deep in the playoffs, how can things change so much to account for the deep drop off from down state teams in that short period of time? You hit on them, but downstate has talent it's just not molded.

Child-please... going back to middle school girls hoops. Really? Complete joke!!