Playoffs - guess at what it looks like

[delawarenole]

So looked at the current records, likely wins and bonus points and took a guess at the playoffs. It's for fun and a total guess, we will shee how accurate it is next Sunday.

1 Sallies
2 Sanford
3 DMA
4 Cape
4t Archmere
6 CR
7 Caravel
8 Newark Charter
9 Charter School
9t Sussex Academy
9t Smyrna
12 Indian River
12t Tower Hill
14 Dover
15 Appo
15t Friends

-----------------------------------------------

Teams on the bubble but not making the cut

St Andrews
Conrad
Middletown
Concord
St Marks
Poly Tech

A few thoughts:
1 - this bracket would have Cape and Salesianum on the same side, dont like that as I feel they are a clear #1 & #2
2 - Sussex Academy all the way down at 9 - 11 seems crazy at 14-1 but makes sense given weakest schedule (least bonus points) of teams that make tournament
3 - DMA, Newark Charter and Caravel all will have great records and pretty high seeds but 1 or 2 will probably lose in 1st round
4 - most of these teams are already locked into the tournament, or close to it, the last 1 1/2 weeks will decide seeding.
5 - Also I have no idea how to break the ties that will happen some that understand that better will have to figure that mess out

Again this was just for fun and hopefully trigger some good conversation. I doubt it will be that accurate but we will see!

 

[Edp445]

If Cape and Sals are on the same side of the bracket somebody needs to be fired. If DMA lands the #3 seed then somebody needs to be shot. Why does DMA consistently find themselves seeded so highly just to be embarrassed in the first or second round? So crazy to me. DMA's lacrosse program is not top 10, you can't convince me otherwise.

 

[Edp445]

Also, no Milford??? Grow up

 

[dellylax]

I feel (hope) that the DIAA will make the right call. There are some decisive games coming up in these last few weeks here, so it will be interesting to watch.
Strength of schedule should definitely take president in the ranking process -- as this argument has been had on this forum for over a year now.

 

[dellylax]

If Cape and Sals are on the same side of the bracket somebody needs to be fired. If DMA lands the #3 seed then somebody needs to be shot. Why does DMA consistently find themselves seeded so highly just to be embarrassed in the first or second round? So crazy to me. DMA's lacrosse program is not top 10, you can't convince me otherwise.

As grim as this is, it's inappropriately accurate.

 

[delawarenole]

It could easily change, the differences in the points index between 3 - 6 or 7 is real tight. If I guessed wrong on any game it could change. Cape beats IMG (which is possible), DMA has a few tough games left and drops one etc. So Cape could easily move to 3 and jump to other side.

What will also be funny is watch teams trying to schedule games against Caravel down the stretch. THey have 1 open slot, they are worth 2 bonus points (11+ wins is highly likely) and are a good but beatable team so if you beat them you get 4 points - a HUGE swing.. Anyone on the bubble will be trying to get on their schedule.

 

[delawarenole]

1 Week out of tournament announcement here is an updated guess / calculation:

1 - Sanford School
2 - Archmere Academy
3 - Salesianum School
4 - DE Military Academy
5 - Cape Henlopen HS
6 - Caesar Rodney HS
6t - Newark Charter School
6t - Smyrna HS
9 - Conrad School
9t - Sussex Academy
9t - Tower Hill School
12 - Caravel Academy
13 - Indian River HS
14 - Tatnall School
15 - Charter School
16 - Wilm Friends School

Bubble teams:
Dover HS
St. Mark's HS
Red Lion CA
Appoquinimink HS
Middletown HS
St. Andrew's School

Some assumptions made here - that could easily be wrong and would make a difference if wrong.

IMG beats Cape. Think this is likely.
IMG beats Sallies. Think this is a toss up.
Caravel beats Middletown. Think this is a toss up.
Charter beats Middletown. Think this is likely.
Smyrna beats Appo. Think this is likely.
Friend goes 3-1 in last 4 games. Good chance this happens.
DMA beats NCS. Think this is likely.

Remember this is just fun I have no idea if I am accurate or not but I did take into account all the current records, made some predictions and this is where it lands.

Also keep in mind the committee really doesn't do anything other then follow a calculation it's not like they can say "no Salesianum should be #2" it's just straight points wins + bonus points / total games = index value. That decides everything.

 

[DE Lax Phan]

I played around and my educated guess looks similar. With the Cape/IMG cancelled, will their game tonight v Sussex Academy count in the tournament index? If so I see them moving into a 3 way tie for third with Sallies and DMA.

 

[delawarenole]

I played around and my educated guess looks similar. With the Cape/IMG cancelled, will their game tonight v Sussex Academy count in the tournament index? If so I see them moving into a 3 way tie for third with Sallies and DMA.

Saw the brackets came out and it was pretty close, Caravel got bumped abs Dover got it due to a 5 way tie evidently abs the tie breakers.

 

[laxdeusa]

Where can we view the bracket?

 

[delawarenole]

I saw them on the 302 Facebook page

 

[soccer07]

Not one traditional high school from above the canal.....

 

[DoItWrite]

Not one traditional high school from above the canal.....

The impact of the charters and Conrad on public schools has been at least as big as it has on the privates. In baseball, the highest seeds from traditional public schools above the canal is Concord at 12. The next highest is Brandywine ... at 31.

 

[soccer07]

The impact of the charters and Conrad on public schools has been at least as big as it has on the privates. In baseball, the highest seeds from traditional public schools above the canal is Concord at 12. The next highest is Brandywine ... at 31.

Damn....
The death of the traditional public school above the canal is rapidly approaching....