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Rankings May 11 AM - Projected Final

DELax100

Getting reps on JV
May 8, 2008
211
0
16
Here are the current seedings, based on some assumptions about the games Saturday.

Again - these were calculated using laxpower, which is not an official record.

On Saturday's games -

I assume a Friends victory over Sanford. If Friends loses, it will change 8 or 9 seedings, so I will re-do the whole list.

I assume an Archmere victory over Tatnall - if Archmere loses, they drop two spots, Appo and Smyrna go up one. Tatnall would also jump into a 4 way tie at #16 - that tebreaker would be a complicated and close calculation.

I assume a DMA victory over Mt Pleasant - if DMA loses, they drop 3 spots and Archmere, Appo and Smyrna move up 1.

I assume a Concord victory over St E's - if Concord loses, they are definitely out, but I don't think it affects DMA or Archmere, the only playoff teams that played St. Es (and would get an extra point from their 8-7 record).

I assume an Indian River victory over Milford. If Indian River loses, Delmar drops 3 spots, and DMA, Archmere and Appo move up one.

I assume a Middletown over St. Andrews - If Middletown loses, They are out, Charter and Sussex Tech move up 1, and Concord is in.

1. Sallies (48/15)
2. Cape (41/15)
3. Polytech (39/15)
4. Tower Hill (38/15)
5. St Marks (37/15) - win tiebreaker with CR by head to head win
6. Caesar Rodney (37/15)
7. Dover (36/15)
8. Friends (35/15) - wins tiebreaker on better common opponent record
9. Delmar (35/15)
10. DMA (34/15)
11. Archmere (33/15) - win tiebreaker on strength of schedule
12. Appo (33/15)
13. Smyrna (32/15)
14. Middletown (29/15) - wins tiebreaker on better common opponent record
15 Sussex Tech (29/15)
16. Wilmington Charter (28/15) - win tiebreaker on strength of schedule over Caravel and Concord
17. Concord (28/15)
18. Caravel (28/15)

On the last tiebreaker, on a 3 way tie, you use head to head record (1st tiebreaker) only if all 3 have played each other. Concord beat Charter, but neither Charter or Concord played Caravel. I have gotten this prediction wrong before on 3 way ties, so let's see how it plays out -

Also, on an obscure rule, you only count games against opponents who have played 10 varsity games on their schedule. Friends played Westtown, who finished 6-4, the minimum of 10 games. But one of their games was against Oxford Area, who only shows 4 games on their schedule - I do not know if they qualify as a varsity team. If not, Friends and Delmar switch seeds - they still play each other, just at Delmar instead of at Friends.
 
With Indian River losing (costing Delmar 2 bonus points) and Middletown losing, here is how I see the final seeds - this assumes a Friends win over Sanford today (no score yet)

1. Sallies
2. Cape
3. Polytech
4. Tower hill
5 St Marks
6. Caesar Rodeny
7. Dover
8. Friends
9 DMA
10. Archmere
11. Delmar
12. Appo
13. Smyrna
14. Sussex tech
15. Charter
16. Concord

There is a 4 way tie at 14th (that includes Caravel) - I think I did the tiebreaker right (strength of schedule)



This post was edited on 5/11 5:23 PM by DELax100
 
Do the top four seeds no longer get a first round bye? The link to the site has the top four seeds playing a day before the lower seeds.
 
Got rid of the bye when they expanded to 16 teams. Only way to get DIAA to buy the expansion.
 
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