HS PRESEASON BREAKDOWN REBOOT
- Thread starter MTownCavs09
- Start date
Well tomorrow is it ladies and Gents. Every football team in the state will meet up to start their path to the start of the 2019 season and their quest to win a State Championship.
This year I decided to come out of retirement and enlighten you with what I like to call the HS Breakdown Reboot. From here on out I will return to weekly breakdowns, predictions, analysis of every top game I can cover as I am only one man doing something I enjoy. So without further ado, Welcome to the 2019 Breakdown Reboot
DIVISION 1 PRESEASON TOP 10
1. Salesianum
2. Hodgson
3. Dover
4. Middletown
5. Smyrna
6. Sussex Central
7. Sussex Tech
8. St. Georges
9. Appo
10. William Penn
DIVISION 2 PRESEASON TOP 10
1. Woodbridge
2. Friends
3. Tower Hill
4. Howard
5. Delmar
6. Caravel
7. Archmere
8. Laurel
9. St. Marks
10. Brandywine
TOP 15 PLAYERS TO SEE THIS SEASON
1. Javon Peace (Dover)
2. Andrew Watkins (Sallies)
3. CJ Henry (Hodgson)
4. Bradon Davis (Middletown)
5. Eric Samuels (Dover)
6. Kasim Lewis (Sussex Central)
7. Zach Covington (Delmar)
8. Wyatt Nelson (Friends)
9. Isiah Brown (Tower Hill)
10. Najair Smith (Middletown
11. Darius Hale (Hodgson)
12. Kemond Massey (Delmar)
13. Wayne Knight (Smyrna)
14. Debo Williams (Smyrna)
15. Jakob Hoffman (Caravel)
TOP 3 GAMES TO SEE BY EACH TEAM
A.I. DUPONT – (9/7 – Friends, 10/26 – Howard, 11/1 – Brandywine)
APPO – (9/6 – Caesar Rodney, 10/12 – St. Georges, 10/18 – Middletown)
BRANDYWINE – (9/6 – Laurel, 9/20 – Howard, 11/1 – A.I. Dupont)
CHRISTIANA – (9/6 – St. Elizabeths, 9/28 – Glasgow, 11/9 – Newark)
CONCORD – (9/28 – Woodbridge, 10/4 – Hodgson, 10/18 – Caravel)
DELCASTLE – (10/5 – Mt. Pleasant, 10/25 – Mckean, 11/2 – Christiana)
DICKINSON – (9/20 – Christiana, 9/27 – FSMA, 10/18 – Red Lion)
GLASGOW – (9/6 – Newark, 10/5 – Caravel, 11/1 – St. Marks)
HODGSON – (9/7 – Dover, 9/21 – Middletown, 10/25 – Sallies)
HOWARD – (9/6 – Concord, 10/12 – Hodgson, 10/26 – A.I. Dupont)
MCKEAN – (9/26 – Howard, 10/4 – Brandywine, 10/11 – Red Lion)
MIDDLETOWN - (9/6 – Smyrna, 9/21 – Hodgson, 11/2 – Sallies)
MT. PLEASANT - (9/7 – Archmere, 10/19 - William Penn, 10/26 – Appo)
NEWARK – (9/6 – Glasgow, 9/14 – Mt. Pleasant, 9/27 – A.I. Dupont)
ST. GEORGES – (9/6 – Cape Henlopen, 9/27 – Caravel, 10/12 – Appo)
WILLIAM PENN – (9/6 – Sallies, 9/21 – Sussex Tech, 10/11 – Middletown)
ST. ELIZABETHS – (9/14 – St. Marks, 10/19 – Archmere, 11/8 – Caravel)
ARCHMERE – (9/7 – Mt. Pleasant, 9/28 St. Marks, 10/4 – Woodbridge)
CHARTER – (10/12 – Conrad, 10/18 – FSMA, 11/8 – Red Lion)
CONRAD – (9/21 – FSMA, 9/27 – Red Lion, 11/2 St. Andrews)
DMA – (9/13 – Milford, 10/11 – Archmere, 11/1 – Caravel)
FIRST STATE MILLITARY – (9/6 – Red Lion, 10/26 – DMA, 11/9 – Archmere)
RED LION – (9/20 – DMA, 10/4 – Tatnall, 10/26 – Archmere)
CAESAR RODNEY – (9/6 – Appo, 9/27 – Sussex Central, 11/8 – Dover)
CAPE HENLOPEN – (9/6 – St. Georges, 10/11 – Sussex Central, 11/1 – Smyrna)
DELMAR – (10/5 – Friends, 11/1 – Laurel, 11/8 – Woodbridge)
DOVER – (9/7 – Hodgson, 9/14 – Sallies, 11/8 – Caesar Rodney)
INDIAN RIVER – (9/6 – Milford, 10/5 – Lake Forest, 11/8 Sussex Central)
LAKE FOREST – (9/27 – Friends, 10/11 – Delmar, 11/8 – Milford)
LAUREL – (9/13 – Howard, 9/20 – Caravel, 11/1 – Delmar)
MILFORD – (9/20 – Cape Henlopen, 10/4 – Dover, 11/8 – Lake Forest)
POLYTECH – (9/13 – Indian River, 9/27 – Laurel, 11/1 – Milford)
SEAFORD – (9/27 – Indian River, 10/18 – Lake Forest, 11/8 – Laurel)
SUSSEX CENTRAL – (9/20 – Smyrna, 9/27 – Caesar Rodney, 11/1 – Dover)
SUSSEX TECH – (10/4 – Smyrna, 10/18 – Sussex Central, 10/25 – Dover)
WOODBRIDGE – (9/6 – Caravel, 9/21 – Friends, 11/8 – Delmar)
ST. ANDREWS – (9/13 – Red Lion, 10/12 – Caravel, 11/2 – Conrad)
TATNALL – (9/20 – Archmere, 9/27 – Tower Hill, 10/19 – Friends)
TOWER HILL – (9/6 – Delcastle, 9/27 – Tatnall, 11/8 – Friends)
WILMINGTON FRIENDS – (9/21 – Woodbridge, 10/5 – Delmar, 11/8 – Tower Hill)
CARAVEL – (9/6 – Woodbridge, 9/13 – Caesar Rodney, 9/27 – St. Georges)
SALESIANUM – (9/14 – Dover, 9/27 – Smyrna, 11/2 – Middletown)
ST. MARKS – (9/28 – Archmere, 10/4 – Appo, 11/8 – Sallies)
This year I decided to come out of retirement and enlighten you with what I like to call the HS Breakdown Reboot. From here on out I will return to weekly breakdowns, predictions, analysis of every top game I can cover as I am only one man doing something I enjoy. So without further ado, Welcome to the 2019 Breakdown Reboot
DIVISION 1 PRESEASON TOP 10
1. Salesianum
2. Hodgson
3. Dover
4. Middletown
5. Smyrna
6. Sussex Central
7. Sussex Tech
8. St. Georges
9. Appo
10. William Penn
DIVISION 2 PRESEASON TOP 10
1. Woodbridge
2. Friends
3. Tower Hill
4. Howard
5. Delmar
6. Caravel
7. Archmere
8. Laurel
9. St. Marks
10. Brandywine
TOP 15 PLAYERS TO SEE THIS SEASON
1. Javon Peace (Dover)
2. Andrew Watkins (Sallies)
3. CJ Henry (Hodgson)
4. Bradon Davis (Middletown)
5. Eric Samuels (Dover)
6. Kasim Lewis (Sussex Central)
7. Zach Covington (Delmar)
8. Wyatt Nelson (Friends)
9. Isiah Brown (Tower Hill)
10. Najair Smith (Middletown
11. Darius Hale (Hodgson)
12. Kemond Massey (Delmar)
13. Wayne Knight (Smyrna)
14. Debo Williams (Smyrna)
15. Jakob Hoffman (Caravel)
TOP 3 GAMES TO SEE BY EACH TEAM
A.I. DUPONT – (9/7 – Friends, 10/26 – Howard, 11/1 – Brandywine)
APPO – (9/6 – Caesar Rodney, 10/12 – St. Georges, 10/18 – Middletown)
BRANDYWINE – (9/6 – Laurel, 9/20 – Howard, 11/1 – A.I. Dupont)
CHRISTIANA – (9/6 – St. Elizabeths, 9/28 – Glasgow, 11/9 – Newark)
CONCORD – (9/28 – Woodbridge, 10/4 – Hodgson, 10/18 – Caravel)
DELCASTLE – (10/5 – Mt. Pleasant, 10/25 – Mckean, 11/2 – Christiana)
DICKINSON – (9/20 – Christiana, 9/27 – FSMA, 10/18 – Red Lion)
GLASGOW – (9/6 – Newark, 10/5 – Caravel, 11/1 – St. Marks)
HODGSON – (9/7 – Dover, 9/21 – Middletown, 10/25 – Sallies)
HOWARD – (9/6 – Concord, 10/12 – Hodgson, 10/26 – A.I. Dupont)
MCKEAN – (9/26 – Howard, 10/4 – Brandywine, 10/11 – Red Lion)
MIDDLETOWN - (9/6 – Smyrna, 9/21 – Hodgson, 11/2 – Sallies)
MT. PLEASANT - (9/7 – Archmere, 10/19 - William Penn, 10/26 – Appo)
NEWARK – (9/6 – Glasgow, 9/14 – Mt. Pleasant, 9/27 – A.I. Dupont)
ST. GEORGES – (9/6 – Cape Henlopen, 9/27 – Caravel, 10/12 – Appo)
WILLIAM PENN – (9/6 – Sallies, 9/21 – Sussex Tech, 10/11 – Middletown)
ST. ELIZABETHS – (9/14 – St. Marks, 10/19 – Archmere, 11/8 – Caravel)
ARCHMERE – (9/7 – Mt. Pleasant, 9/28 St. Marks, 10/4 – Woodbridge)
CHARTER – (10/12 – Conrad, 10/18 – FSMA, 11/8 – Red Lion)
CONRAD – (9/21 – FSMA, 9/27 – Red Lion, 11/2 St. Andrews)
DMA – (9/13 – Milford, 10/11 – Archmere, 11/1 – Caravel)
FIRST STATE MILLITARY – (9/6 – Red Lion, 10/26 – DMA, 11/9 – Archmere)
RED LION – (9/20 – DMA, 10/4 – Tatnall, 10/26 – Archmere)
CAESAR RODNEY – (9/6 – Appo, 9/27 – Sussex Central, 11/8 – Dover)
CAPE HENLOPEN – (9/6 – St. Georges, 10/11 – Sussex Central, 11/1 – Smyrna)
DELMAR – (10/5 – Friends, 11/1 – Laurel, 11/8 – Woodbridge)
DOVER – (9/7 – Hodgson, 9/14 – Sallies, 11/8 – Caesar Rodney)
INDIAN RIVER – (9/6 – Milford, 10/5 – Lake Forest, 11/8 Sussex Central)
LAKE FOREST – (9/27 – Friends, 10/11 – Delmar, 11/8 – Milford)
LAUREL – (9/13 – Howard, 9/20 – Caravel, 11/1 – Delmar)
MILFORD – (9/20 – Cape Henlopen, 10/4 – Dover, 11/8 – Lake Forest)
POLYTECH – (9/13 – Indian River, 9/27 – Laurel, 11/1 – Milford)
SEAFORD – (9/27 – Indian River, 10/18 – Lake Forest, 11/8 – Laurel)
SUSSEX CENTRAL – (9/20 – Smyrna, 9/27 – Caesar Rodney, 11/1 – Dover)
SUSSEX TECH – (10/4 – Smyrna, 10/18 – Sussex Central, 10/25 – Dover)
WOODBRIDGE – (9/6 – Caravel, 9/21 – Friends, 11/8 – Delmar)
ST. ANDREWS – (9/13 – Red Lion, 10/12 – Caravel, 11/2 – Conrad)
TATNALL – (9/20 – Archmere, 9/27 – Tower Hill, 10/19 – Friends)
TOWER HILL – (9/6 – Delcastle, 9/27 – Tatnall, 11/8 – Friends)
WILMINGTON FRIENDS – (9/21 – Woodbridge, 10/5 – Delmar, 11/8 – Tower Hill)
CARAVEL – (9/6 – Woodbridge, 9/13 – Caesar Rodney, 9/27 – St. Georges)
SALESIANUM – (9/14 – Dover, 9/27 – Smyrna, 11/2 – Middletown)
ST. MARKS – (9/28 – Archmere, 10/4 – Appo, 11/8 – Sallies)
#14? Really? I get he doesn’t play offense but damn. You sleeping on Debo bigly. He was a man amongst boys as a sophomore and injured last year. He gonna bust some serious ass this year. Hide yo kids hide yo wife
Pickle - it’s nothing against Debo, he’s an excellent player and young man. It’s just how I feel at the current moment, as the season flies he could work up that. But playing linebacker on a 3-6 team last year and Wayne coming into his own, he’s not the must see show down in duck creek anymore like he was last year.
And no I do not. They lost their entire offense. Howard is the heart of that conference, and Brandywine showed some real promise last year. The independents and the henlopen has more talent returning. They might be able to be flexed into 7-10 but I just feel like they lost too much talent to be a playoff team. I’ll be the first to say I’m wrong if I am.
HS, nice piece of analysis. I think that the Sals Yelbert and Healey will do some damage. Still, I think you overrate the Sals team a bit. They better start to get improved special teams play this season.
Ethan Potter and Jermaine Earl (easily 2 of the top 10 WR's in the state), should give DC's fits this year. I'd be surprised if they don't make it to at least the D2 state semifinals.HS Ethan Potter Caravel should be on the list IMO Villanova committ
Those two have a fair argument. But remember, I just chose to do 15, of course they’d be in the top 50. I did the best I could with what I knew. I do really like the Potter boy, plays really well.
Earl let me down this offseason, he tried to transfer out of Newark, got rejected from a Appo because school is too full, didn’t pass the exam to get into Caravel (or so I was told) so he stayed at Newark. Newark was terrible during 7on7. Idk how much better Earl can take them, but I wasn’t impressed. They have one Kid who played not. Basketball lining up at receiver, besides Earl he might be their best player. I just have to see more from them. If I was anyone on that team I’d be pissed that my best player tried leaving twice.
But thanks for the remarks guys. Doing Any top rankings, teams or player, it’s all subjective, so where I have someone you guys could have them farther up or down the list. I do my best with what I know.
Earl let me down this offseason, he tried to transfer out of Newark, got rejected from a Appo because school is too full, didn’t pass the exam to get into Caravel (or so I was told) so he stayed at Newark. Newark was terrible during 7on7. Idk how much better Earl can take them, but I wasn’t impressed. They have one Kid who played not. Basketball lining up at receiver, besides Earl he might be their best player. I just have to see more from them. If I was anyone on that team I’d be pissed that my best player tried leaving twice.
But thanks for the remarks guys. Doing Any top rankings, teams or player, it’s all subjective, so where I have someone you guys could have them farther up or down the list. I do my best with what I know.
Between D1 and D2, no less than 15 teams can fairly claim to have a shot at a state title, so it's going to be a very interesting year.
Hodgson and Middletown just have to stay motivated through their conference schedule til they play each other and Sallies (though Dover and Smyrna will be tough opponents for them each to open up with).
This might be the best Sallies team Coach DiNardo's had and maybe an all-timer. The talent is there, the skill is there...only thing missing is the home field advantage (for now).
Henny North is going to be a battle royale as usual, with Central having the (state) champions' advantage. Can Smyrna regroup? Does Dover have a QB ready? Can Tech put it all together?
D2 is in for one of those years that we'll see whoever won it on November 30th and go "well yeah, they were the best team left."
Flight B is between Howard and AI, although Brandywine and Newark could make things difficult for either of them.
Henny South is Woodbridge's to lose, but we can't count out Delmar, even with two major transfers and some graduating players gone.
Independent Conference will be Friends and Tower as it is every year, the big battle is who can score two home playoff games instead of 1?
ETA: Forgot the Diamond State. Not a whole lot there, but DMA and Archmere should make things interesting.
Caravel was already on my radar with how they finished 2018, but the entire state should be on alert. Marvin Dooley with a year under his belt should have St. E's much improved.
4 weeks of practice ahead to install plays/game plans, get depth charts, build team chemistry and then September 5, 6 and 7, it all begins. Looking forward to this season.
Hodgson and Middletown just have to stay motivated through their conference schedule til they play each other and Sallies (though Dover and Smyrna will be tough opponents for them each to open up with).
This might be the best Sallies team Coach DiNardo's had and maybe an all-timer. The talent is there, the skill is there...only thing missing is the home field advantage (for now).
Henny North is going to be a battle royale as usual, with Central having the (state) champions' advantage. Can Smyrna regroup? Does Dover have a QB ready? Can Tech put it all together?
D2 is in for one of those years that we'll see whoever won it on November 30th and go "well yeah, they were the best team left."
Flight B is between Howard and AI, although Brandywine and Newark could make things difficult for either of them.
Henny South is Woodbridge's to lose, but we can't count out Delmar, even with two major transfers and some graduating players gone.
Independent Conference will be Friends and Tower as it is every year, the big battle is who can score two home playoff games instead of 1?
ETA: Forgot the Diamond State. Not a whole lot there, but DMA and Archmere should make things interesting.
Caravel was already on my radar with how they finished 2018, but the entire state should be on alert. Marvin Dooley with a year under his belt should have St. E's much improved.
4 weeks of practice ahead to install plays/game plans, get depth charts, build team chemistry and then September 5, 6 and 7, it all begins. Looking forward to this season.
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So my “trustworthy intel” was wrong for the second time this off season. Safe to say, I won’t be going back to him. Thanks for clearing that up for me Truth, that’s TWO you got over on me now. Wanna switch jobs? Lol
Below are the preseason rankings from MaxPreps for the top 20 teams in Delaware that was updated August 11th. Take it with a huge grain of salt as it is fully computer generated with an algorithm that is not publicly documented. As the season goes on, the algorithm gets better and the rankings get closer to reality, although it never gets 100% "accurate". So take it for what is worth.
# School Rating
1 Hodgson Vo-Tech 18.9
2 Sussex Central 15.2
3 Woodbridge 4.9
4 Middletown 4.7
5 Salesianum 4.5
6 Smyrna 2.4
7 Delmar 0.8
8 Dover 0.7
9 Sussex Tech -2.7
10 Wilmington Friends -3.1
11 Delaware Military Academy -5.2
12 William Penn -9.3
13 Tower Hill -9.4
14 DuPont -9.7
15 Howard -11.8
16 Appoquinimink -11.9
17 Archmere Academy -13.2
18 Caesar Rodney -13.2
19 Laurel -13.3
20 Milford -13.6
# School Rating
1 Hodgson Vo-Tech 18.9
2 Sussex Central 15.2
3 Woodbridge 4.9
4 Middletown 4.7
5 Salesianum 4.5
6 Smyrna 2.4
7 Delmar 0.8
8 Dover 0.7
9 Sussex Tech -2.7
10 Wilmington Friends -3.1
11 Delaware Military Academy -5.2
12 William Penn -9.3
13 Tower Hill -9.4
14 DuPont -9.7
15 Howard -11.8
16 Appoquinimink -11.9
17 Archmere Academy -13.2
18 Caesar Rodney -13.2
19 Laurel -13.3
20 Milford -13.6
What are some of the variables that are taken into consideration on one of these? Strength of schedule, last years record, and what else?
I know for preseason rankings there is something like a "dynasty" factor, where teams that have been historically rated high get a bonus. They most likely use strength of schedule as well, but I'm not positive.
During the season, they use a mathematical model that cranks through every game for every team that they have data for and compares the current rankings to the weekly results. It keeps running the algorithm until the results converge on a "solution" where the rankings don't change between runs. All games for each team are included in the runs, so as the season progresses the results get more and more accurate.
You can read about their ranking system here: https://www.maxpreps.com/news/X4MCEfnBEeC-rAAmVebEWg/how-the-maxpreps-rankings-work.htm
Most the coaches dont send in returning starting players and what not. The computer algorithms are pointless until at least 3 games have been played then they drop data from last year. Its a moving rating week to week because only game played go into the SOS. Really its not worth much until all the games have been played. Remember it's not a ranking its a rating system. Rankings are done by human polls
http://calpreps.com/ratings.htm
and for HS.. Reminder: We do not project games until October 1st.
So a team preview looks like this.. with the last line being important
St. John's (Washington, DC) previews home
GENERAL
Nickname: Cadets
Colors: Scarlet/Gray
Coach: Joe Casemento
League: Washington Catholic - Capital
State (Plays In): Maryland
Playoff Division: none
D1 PROSPECTS
Rakim Jarrett 6'0" 205 Senior WR
Tre Williams 6'2.5" 305 Senior DT
Mekhail Sherman 6'3" 235 Senior OLB
Mordecai McDaniel 6'1" 195 Senior S
Greg Hudgins 6'4" 230 Senior WDE
Sol-Jay Maiava 6'0" 190 Senior QB
Demond Arter 6'4" 305 Senior OG
Alex Peitsch 6'2" 220 Senior LS
COLLEGE PROSPECTS LOST TO GRADUATION
Keilan Robinson 5'9" 185 Senior RB
Tre'Mon Morris-Brash 6'3" 230 Senior WDE
Quinten Johnson 5'11" 190 Senior S
Brayden Bapst 6'8" 245 Senior OT
Aman Greenwood 6'0" 180 Senior S
Cameron Ross 6'0" 160 Senior WR
Drew Berggren 6'3" 265 Senior OG
Rian Haigler 6'3" 285 Senior OG
Ron Cook Jr. 5'8" 185 Senior WR
RATINGS
2018 Final Power Rating: 69.4
2018 National Rank: #20
2018 State Rank: #1 (in DC)
D1 Talent (Back/Lost) Rating Adjustment: +18.1
Non-Senior D1 Talent Rating Bonus: +17
Roster-Based (Players Back/Lost) Rough Rating Adjustment: +3.5
2019 Starting Power Rating: 92.6
2019 National Rank: #4
2019 State Rank: #1 (in DC)
Dynasty Rating (Average 2003-2018 Rating): 42.7
Dynasty National Rank: #342
2019 Rating vs. Dynasty Rating Comparison: better by 49.9
Dynasty Record: 108-63 (66-35 in league)
HISTORICAL
2018 Overall Record: 9-1
2018 League Record/Finish: 4-0 (1st)
2018 Points For Average: 34.2
2018 Points Against Average: 16.9
2018 Differential: +17.3
2018 Wins: #11 Christian Brothers (St. Louis, MO) (59-49), #29 Central (Miami, FL) (37-34), #35 Gonzaga (Washington) (34-17), #39 DeMatha (Hyattsville, MD) (13-7), #90 Our Lady of Good Counsel (Olney, MD) (31-10), #121 Hoover (AL) (42-14), #483 Marietta (GA) (21-14), #1545 Johns Creek (GA) (49-0), #2104 Bishop McNamara (Forestville, MD) (42-0)
2018 Losses: #35 Gonzaga (Washington) (24-14)
2018 Opponents W-L: 81-36
Recent State Championships: 2017 (WCAC)
Recent League Championships: 2018, 2017 (Washington Catholic), 2007 (tied for 1st; Washington Catholic)
Winning Streak Entering 2019 Season: none
SCHEDULE
2019 Schedule: 8/24 Southridge (Miami, FL), 8/31 Deerfield Beach (FL), 9/6 vs St. Joseph's Prep (Philadelphia, PA), 9/14 at Duncanville (TX), 9/21 IMG Academy (Bradenton, FL), 9/27 Mater Dei (Santa Ana, CA), 10/12 at Bishop McNamara (Forestville, MD), 10/18 at Our Lady of Good Counsel (Olney, MD), 11/2 DeMatha (Hyattsville, MD), 11/9 vs Gonzaga (Washington)
Highest-Rated 2019 Regular Season Opponents: Mater Dei (Santa Ana, CA) (110.4), IMG Academy (Bradenton, FL) (82.5), Duncanville (TX) (78.4)
Lowest-Rated 2019 Regular Season Opponents: Bishop McNamara (Forestville, MD) (-2.5), Southridge (Miami, FL) (25.1), Deerfield Beach (FL) (52.7)
2018 Regular Season Schedule Strength: 57.6 (55.1 overall)
2019 Regular Season Schedule Strength: 62.6
2019 vs. 2018 Schedule Strength Comparison: +5
2019 Regular Season Schedule Strength State Rank: #1
2019 Regular Season Schedule Strength National Rank: #2
2019 Projected Regular Season Record: 9-1
2019 Projected League Finish: 1st
2019 Undefeated Regular Season Probability: 5%
We were unable to contact coach to obtain preview info.
http://calpreps.com/ratings.htm
and for HS.. Reminder: We do not project games until October 1st.
So a team preview looks like this.. with the last line being important
St. John's (Washington, DC) previews home
GENERAL
Nickname: Cadets
Colors: Scarlet/Gray
Coach: Joe Casemento
League: Washington Catholic - Capital
State (Plays In): Maryland
Playoff Division: none
D1 PROSPECTS
Rakim Jarrett 6'0" 205 Senior WR
Tre Williams 6'2.5" 305 Senior DT
Mekhail Sherman 6'3" 235 Senior OLB
Mordecai McDaniel 6'1" 195 Senior S
Greg Hudgins 6'4" 230 Senior WDE
Sol-Jay Maiava 6'0" 190 Senior QB
Demond Arter 6'4" 305 Senior OG
Alex Peitsch 6'2" 220 Senior LS
COLLEGE PROSPECTS LOST TO GRADUATION
Keilan Robinson 5'9" 185 Senior RB
Tre'Mon Morris-Brash 6'3" 230 Senior WDE
Quinten Johnson 5'11" 190 Senior S
Brayden Bapst 6'8" 245 Senior OT
Aman Greenwood 6'0" 180 Senior S
Cameron Ross 6'0" 160 Senior WR
Drew Berggren 6'3" 265 Senior OG
Rian Haigler 6'3" 285 Senior OG
Ron Cook Jr. 5'8" 185 Senior WR
RATINGS
2018 Final Power Rating: 69.4
2018 National Rank: #20
2018 State Rank: #1 (in DC)
D1 Talent (Back/Lost) Rating Adjustment: +18.1
Non-Senior D1 Talent Rating Bonus: +17
Roster-Based (Players Back/Lost) Rough Rating Adjustment: +3.5
2019 Starting Power Rating: 92.6
2019 National Rank: #4
2019 State Rank: #1 (in DC)
Dynasty Rating (Average 2003-2018 Rating): 42.7
Dynasty National Rank: #342
2019 Rating vs. Dynasty Rating Comparison: better by 49.9
Dynasty Record: 108-63 (66-35 in league)
HISTORICAL
2018 Overall Record: 9-1
2018 League Record/Finish: 4-0 (1st)
2018 Points For Average: 34.2
2018 Points Against Average: 16.9
2018 Differential: +17.3
2018 Wins: #11 Christian Brothers (St. Louis, MO) (59-49), #29 Central (Miami, FL) (37-34), #35 Gonzaga (Washington) (34-17), #39 DeMatha (Hyattsville, MD) (13-7), #90 Our Lady of Good Counsel (Olney, MD) (31-10), #121 Hoover (AL) (42-14), #483 Marietta (GA) (21-14), #1545 Johns Creek (GA) (49-0), #2104 Bishop McNamara (Forestville, MD) (42-0)
2018 Losses: #35 Gonzaga (Washington) (24-14)
2018 Opponents W-L: 81-36
Recent State Championships: 2017 (WCAC)
Recent League Championships: 2018, 2017 (Washington Catholic), 2007 (tied for 1st; Washington Catholic)
Winning Streak Entering 2019 Season: none
SCHEDULE
2019 Schedule: 8/24 Southridge (Miami, FL), 8/31 Deerfield Beach (FL), 9/6 vs St. Joseph's Prep (Philadelphia, PA), 9/14 at Duncanville (TX), 9/21 IMG Academy (Bradenton, FL), 9/27 Mater Dei (Santa Ana, CA), 10/12 at Bishop McNamara (Forestville, MD), 10/18 at Our Lady of Good Counsel (Olney, MD), 11/2 DeMatha (Hyattsville, MD), 11/9 vs Gonzaga (Washington)
Highest-Rated 2019 Regular Season Opponents: Mater Dei (Santa Ana, CA) (110.4), IMG Academy (Bradenton, FL) (82.5), Duncanville (TX) (78.4)
Lowest-Rated 2019 Regular Season Opponents: Bishop McNamara (Forestville, MD) (-2.5), Southridge (Miami, FL) (25.1), Deerfield Beach (FL) (52.7)
2018 Regular Season Schedule Strength: 57.6 (55.1 overall)
2019 Regular Season Schedule Strength: 62.6
2019 vs. 2018 Schedule Strength Comparison: +5
2019 Regular Season Schedule Strength State Rank: #1
2019 Regular Season Schedule Strength National Rank: #2
2019 Projected Regular Season Record: 9-1
2019 Projected League Finish: 1st
2019 Undefeated Regular Season Probability: 5%
We were unable to contact coach to obtain preview info.
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Its documented and fully explained right here. Calpreps is Maxpreps. Max downloads the ratings from Cal and Cal downloads the scores from Max
http://calpreps.com/ratings.htm
RATINGS FIXES (Early-Season Inaccuracies)
The purpose of this tweak/change was to fix the credibility problem associated with the ratings being less accurate early in the season as well as the fact that ratings weren't available at all for the first three weeks of the year. Now, ratings exist the entire season, even before the first games are played. Some teams simply start (roughly) at the point they finished at the previous year; most are updated from last year's final rating, up or down, based on information on what all they have coming back. Early-season ratings are a combination-- partially based on the starting point and partially based on the early results of the new season. This helps avoid the early-season anomalies because the sample size of data now isn't so small early in the year, as we're essentially using the (adjusted) data from the previous year, to an extent, as well, in order to gauge schedule strength. As such, the sample size is quite large.
There are two main reasons why this hadn't been done prior to 2007. Having starting points for (non-national) power ratings systems is quite common-- in fact, much more common than is starting with the teams zeroed-out. The two reasons why this had never been tried with this system had been a strong desire to keep the ratings "pure" (current year data only) and that there hadn't been a realistic way to get a starting point for the teams, given that with a national system, it's very difficult to read up on 15,000+ schools to see what kind of year they're expected to have. The desire for purity has waned over the years and there now exists a realistic way to get a decent guess at a good starting point for most schools.
As mentioned above, we manually research the adjustments (eg: a team is determined to be a +3, a -1.5, etc. based on info re: returners) for nearly all teams. In a few cases, we use roster/statistical info from the prior year to auto-adjust teams. While admittedly more than a bit crude, a roster alone can provide the opportunity to make a mathematical estimate on whether the team should be stronger/roughly the same/weaker in the following year. If 42 of 49 kids on last year's roster were seniors, things probably don't look too good for the following year. If there were only eight seniors on the roster, the future more than likely looks bright. Obviously, there are many problems with doing this, such as transfers, injuries and, certainly most problematic, the notion of treating all players equally. We would still argue that it'd give a proposed adjustment that'd be "better than nothing". For teams with statistics available as well as a roster, the info gleaned will obviously be more accurate as it can be determined whether some of the key statistical performers are expected back or not.
While those are, again, somewhat crude adjustments, our best adjustments involve the teams we're able to do full previews for because we've heard back from the coach. In those situations, our adjustments are based on very sound info such as how many off/def starters a team has coming back, whether last year's starting QB is back, whether last year's top defensive player is back, how much of their team's potential Division 1 talent is returning, etc.
It is important to understand that the adjustments will be quickly washed out, particularly in cases where a small up-or-down change was made. The wash out will begin as soon as the first game result rolls in, and as every further game is played, where the team started will continue to lessen in importance. It's really the fact that a start of the year rating is being used at all that is the key aspect of this plan (that, for example, a team starts at a 22), but whether we move them to 23 or 20.5 won't make much of a difference at all once the season is underway.
Ratings in the early-to-mid season will be a combination of the current year data and the starting point. After a team has played several games, the starting rating will be completely eliminated from the process and their rating will be just as it would have been under the old system.
Please be clear that the ratings from mid-season on are exactly as they were under the "old system". As such, no biases, such as the teams' starting points are a factor in any way at that point in the year. Therefore, states using the ratings for playoff purposes are not in any way be affected by the change, as the differences from the old method are wiped out by the point they'd be using them.
The purpose of this tweak/change was to fix the credibility problem associated with the ratings being less accurate early in the season as well as the fact that ratings weren't available at all for the first three weeks of the year. Now, ratings exist the entire season, even before the first games are played. Some teams simply start (roughly) at the point they finished at the previous year; most are updated from last year's final rating, up or down, based on information on what all they have coming back. Early-season ratings are a combination-- partially based on the starting point and partially based on the early results of the new season. This helps avoid the early-season anomalies because the sample size of data now isn't so small early in the year, as we're essentially using the (adjusted) data from the previous year, to an extent, as well, in order to gauge schedule strength. As such, the sample size is quite large.
There are two main reasons why this hadn't been done prior to 2007. Having starting points for (non-national) power ratings systems is quite common-- in fact, much more common than is starting with the teams zeroed-out. The two reasons why this had never been tried with this system had been a strong desire to keep the ratings "pure" (current year data only) and that there hadn't been a realistic way to get a starting point for the teams, given that with a national system, it's very difficult to read up on 15,000+ schools to see what kind of year they're expected to have. The desire for purity has waned over the years and there now exists a realistic way to get a decent guess at a good starting point for most schools.
As mentioned above, we manually research the adjustments (eg: a team is determined to be a +3, a -1.5, etc. based on info re: returners) for nearly all teams. In a few cases, we use roster/statistical info from the prior year to auto-adjust teams. While admittedly more than a bit crude, a roster alone can provide the opportunity to make a mathematical estimate on whether the team should be stronger/roughly the same/weaker in the following year. If 42 of 49 kids on last year's roster were seniors, things probably don't look too good for the following year. If there were only eight seniors on the roster, the future more than likely looks bright. Obviously, there are many problems with doing this, such as transfers, injuries and, certainly most problematic, the notion of treating all players equally. We would still argue that it'd give a proposed adjustment that'd be "better than nothing". For teams with statistics available as well as a roster, the info gleaned will obviously be more accurate as it can be determined whether some of the key statistical performers are expected back or not.
While those are, again, somewhat crude adjustments, our best adjustments involve the teams we're able to do full previews for because we've heard back from the coach. In those situations, our adjustments are based on very sound info such as how many off/def starters a team has coming back, whether last year's starting QB is back, whether last year's top defensive player is back, how much of their team's potential Division 1 talent is returning, etc.
It is important to understand that the adjustments will be quickly washed out, particularly in cases where a small up-or-down change was made. The wash out will begin as soon as the first game result rolls in, and as every further game is played, where the team started will continue to lessen in importance. It's really the fact that a start of the year rating is being used at all that is the key aspect of this plan (that, for example, a team starts at a 22), but whether we move them to 23 or 20.5 won't make much of a difference at all once the season is underway.
Ratings in the early-to-mid season will be a combination of the current year data and the starting point. After a team has played several games, the starting rating will be completely eliminated from the process and their rating will be just as it would have been under the old system.
Please be clear that the ratings from mid-season on are exactly as they were under the "old system". As such, no biases, such as the teams' starting points are a factor in any way at that point in the year. Therefore, states using the ratings for playoff purposes are not in any way be affected by the change, as the differences from the old method are wiped out by the point they'd be using them.
BiB thanks but I Already knew that
I actually saw their “rating” and was laughing my ass off cause they are clearly way off on it
I actually saw their “rating” and was laughing my ass off cause they are clearly way off on it
There are definitely a lot of flaws in the system, but they are the only ones trying to rate all the teams in the country. In the end, it only matters what the teams do on the field, but it does give something for us old guys to talk about.
It actually works well for Delaware being a small amount of teams and allot of teams play each other. You just have to wait until some games have been played but the end of the year ratings are pretty spot on in most cases
For those of you who are interested, the fully computerized ranking systems are modeled off of a system presented in a paper caller "A Solution To The Unequal Strength Of Schedule Problem" by Roy Bethel and can be found here: http://homepages.cae.wisc.edu/~dwilson/rsfc/rate/papers/BethelRank.pdf
I noticed the historical factor and that might be why the Sals fell. Uncle Bummy has pointed out the special team minus kille® plays but this year, LOOK OUT! The REVENGE TOUR
If you asked anyone in Delaware, Sallies is one of the most consistent programs in the state. So the historical factor should have risen them.
Sallies IS good every year yet never had that dominance like the Newark and William Penn teams. Speaking of William Penn, they might be a sleeper to wreck some dreams after the lose a close one to Salesianum.
Sallies has had some rough breaks over their history in the state tournament era, like losing the semis to Delcastle on an unplayable field in 1983 and running into Middletown and Sussex Central buzzsaws in this decade, but they're absolutely one of the five programs you'd mention to an out-of-state football fan if they asked you who are Delaware's dynasties.
So should Wm Penn & CR ? ( 2019 male enrollments 1136 & 1023) according to the State of Delaware website
