Week 7 Playoff Projection 2A

[Titanium Shadow]

With the new playoff system, I decided to do a projection of the 2A District 3 playoff situation to see how it looks. There are a lot more bonus points with the new format (Red Lion is projected to earn 16 Bonus Points. That's 4 wins worth of Bonus Points.).

The projections will be more accurate after tonight's/tomorrow's games but, baring a big upset somewhere, it probably won't change much.

All winners are projected based on Computer Ratings. Most games are not projected to be close, but those that are projected to be close are listed as "Critical Games".

Note that Milford is projected to win over Tech but the game is projected to be close.

If Milford beats Tech (as projected) they are projected to be the 4th seed in District 3. If Tech wins, they are projected to be the 4th seed.

Team	Projected District Wins	Projected District Losses	Projected Overall Wins	Projected Overall Losses	Projected Points	Projected Bonus Points	Projected Index	Critical Games
Woodbridge	6	0	10	0	42	14	5.60	Howard
Caravel	5	1	9	1	36	11	4.70	Delmar
Delmar	3	2	6	3	26	13	4.33	Caravel, Laurel
Milford	2	3	5	4	22	9	3.44	Tech
Tech	2	4	5	5	20	11	3.10	Milford
Lake	1	5	5	5	20	10	3.00
RLCA	1	5	3	7	12	16	2.80

Projected Bonus Points are listed below:

Team	Bonus points
Woodbridge	2 St Mark's, 1 Tech, 2 Delmar, 2, Laurel, 3 Caravel, 1 Milford, 1 Lake, 2 Howard
Caravel	1 Tech, 3 WB, 1 Lake, 2 Delmar, 1 Milford, 3 St E
Delmar	2 Friends, 3 WB , 3 Caravel, 1 Lake, 1 Tech, IR 1, Laurel 2
Milford	1 Lake, 1 Central, 3 WB, 1 Tech, 3 Caravel
Tech	2 Laurel, 3 Caravel, 3 WB, 2 Delmar, 1 Milford
Lake	1 Milford, 1 Tech, 3 Caravel, 3 WB, 2 Delmar
RLCA	2 St M, 2 Delmar, 3 Caravel, 1 Milford, 3 DMA, 1 Lake, 1 Tech, 3 WB

 

[Titanium Shadow]

Below are the complete projections for the 12 playoff teams in 2A.

Same caveats as above. All games are projected based off of computer ratings. There is room for a lot of change in this list, and it will be more accurate after today's/tomorrow's games.

Team	Projected District Wins	Projected District Losses	Overall Wins	Overall Losses	Projected Points	Projected Bonus Points	Index
Woodbridge	6	0	10	0	42	14	5.60
Archemre	6	0	10	0	42	11	5.30
Caravel	5	1	9	1	36	11	4.70
DMA	6	0	9	1	36	11	4.70
Delmar	3	2	6	3	26	13	4.33
Friends	4	2	8	2	32	11	4.30
Howard	5	1	7	3	28	13	4.10
St. Mark's	5	1	7	3	28	11	3.90
Tower Hill	3	3	7	3	28	10	3.80
Milford	2	3	5	4	22	9	3.44
Concord	4	2	5	5	20	11	3.10
Newark	3	3	5	5	20	6	2.60

Bonus points:

Team	Bonus points
Woodbridge	2 St Mark's, 1 Tech, 2 Delmar, 2, Laurel, 3 Caravel, 1 Milford, 1 Lake, 2 Howard
Archemre	1 Tatnall, 2 Howard, 2 Friends, 2 StM, 1 TH, 3 DMA
Caravel	1 Tech, 3 WB, 1 Lake, 2 Delmar, 1 Milford, 3 St E
DMA	2 Bonner, 2 Howard, 2 St Mark's, 3 Archmere, 1 Newark, 1 Concord
Delmar	2 Friends, 3 WB , 3 Caravel, 1 Lake, 1 Tech, IR 1, Laurel 2
Friends	2 Delmar, 1 Tatnall, 1 TH, 3 Archmere, 2 Howard, 2 St A
Howard	1 Concord, 3 Archmere, 3 DMA, 2 Friends, 1 TH, 3 WB
St. Mark's	3 WB, 1 Newark, 3 Archmere, 1 Concord, 3 DMA
Tower Hill	2 Friends, 2 St A, 3 Archmere, 2 Howard, 1 Tatnall
Milford	1 Lake, 1 Central, 3 WB, 1 Tech, 3 Caravel
Concord	2 Howard, 1 Newark, 3 Caravel, 2 St M, 3 DMA
Newark	1 Concord, 2 St M, 3 DMA

Note: The above assumes that Howard beats Friends tomorrow. That game could go either way.

 

[Yunforce]

As a bonus, below are the projections for the top 8 in 2A (9 since St. Mark's and Tower Hill are Tied with a 3.8 index).

Same caveats as above. All games are projected based off of computer ratings. There is room for a lot of change in this list, and it will be more accurate after today's/tomorrow's games.

Team	Projected District Wins	Projected District Losses	Overall Wins	Overall Losses	Projected Points	Projected Bonus Points	Index
Woodbridge	6	0	10	0	42	14	5.60
Archemre	6	0	10	0	42	7	4.90
Caravel	5	1	9	1	36	11	4.70
DMA	6	0	9	1	36	10	4.60
Delmar	3	2	6	3	26	13	4.33
Friends	4	2	8	2	32	11	4.30
Howard	5	1	7	3	28	13	4.10
St. Mark's	5	1	7	3	28	10	3.80
Tower Hill	4	2	7	3	28	10	3.80

Bonus points:

Woodbridge	2 St Mark's, 1 Tech, 2 Delmar, 2, Laurel, 3 Caravel, 1 Milford, 1 Lake, 2 Howard
Caravel	1 Tech, 3 WB, 1 Lake, 2 Delmar, 1 Milford, 3 St E
Delmar	2 Friends, 3 WB , 3 Caravel, 1 Lake, 1 Tech, IR 1, Laurel 2
Milford	1 Lake, 1 Central, 3 WB, 1 Tech, 3 Caravel
Tech	2 Laurel, 3 Caravel, 3 WB, 2 Delmar, 1 Milford
Lake	1 Milford, 1 Tech, 3 Caravel, 3 WB, 2 Delmar
RLCA	2 St M, 2 Delmar, 3 Caravel, 1 Milford, 3 DMA, 1 Lake, 1 Tech, 3 WB
DMA	2 Bonner, 2 Howard, 2 St Mark's, 3 Archmere, 1 Concord
St. Mark's	3 WB, 3 Archmere, 1 Concord, 3 DMA
Archemre	1 Tatnall, 2 StM, 1 TH, 3 DMA
Friends	2 Delmar, 1 Tatnall, 1 TH, 3 Archmere, 2 Howard, 2 St A
Howard	1 Concord, 3 Archmere, 3 DMA, 2 Friends, 1 TH, 3 WB
Tower Hill	2 Friends, 2 St A, 3 Archmere, 2 Howard, 1 Tatnall

Archmere would get bonus from Howard, Friends, Tatnall and CR as well based on your projections

 

[BackinBlack86]

Archmere would get bonus from Howard, Friends and CR as well

CR no lol

 

[Titanium Shadow]

Somehow missed Friends and Howard BPs for Archmere (CR won't give BPs and Tatnall was already included). Thanks.

Fixed above. Let me know if anybody notice any other errors.

 

[BackinBlack86]

Somehow missed Friends and Howard BPs for Archmere (CR won't give BPs and Tatnall was already included). Thanks.

Fixed above. Let me know if anybody notice any other errors.

Yun probably making sure you got the 6 point win for CR. But that wouldn't really be "bonus points" in the new set up. I think in the past we used to add the points for playing D1 teams as bonus points at the end

 

[Titanium Shadow]

Yun probably making sure you got the 6 point win for CR. But that wouldn't really be "bonus points" in the new set up. I think in the past we used to add the points for playing D1 teams as bonus points at the end

That's why Archmere has 42 points. The extra two from the CR game.

 

[Titanium Shadow]

Updated second post with projections for all playoff teams for 2A.

It's interesting that District 3 is projected to have 3 of the top 5 teams in 2A.

 

[BackinBlack86]

Updated second post with projections for all playoff teams for 2A.

It's interesting that District 3 is projected to have 3 of the top 5 teams in 2A.

Still messed up take a look at Caravel and Archmere.. Caravel doesn't play Friends or itself also still missing Friends, Howard and Tatnall BP for Archmere

 

[Titanium Shadow]

Still messed up take a look at Caravel and Archmere.. Caravel doesn't play Friends or itself

That was a bad sort of my spreadsheet. I already fixed it.

 

[Titanium Shadow]

If the above scenarios play out as projected, every team in District 3 will have a higher point index than the 4th seed in District 1, Newark.

 

[Yunforce]

CR no lol

Any point that you get for any reason outside of winning a game is bonus in my eyes.

 

[Titanium Shadow]

Any point that you get for any reason outside of winning a game is bonus in my eyes.

In my view, any points you get just for playing a game aren't "Bonus". They're just points. But it doesn't matter either way.

 

[delawarenole]

If the above scenarios play out as projected, every team in District 3 will have a higher point index than the 4th seed in District 1, Newark.

Not a surprise the district layout was bullshit. 3 - the south + CA is by far the best and won all but 2 or 3 state titles in past 25 years (not counting Hodgson and Middletown which are now the top class)

 

[Yunforce]

Not a surprise the district layout was bullshit. 3 - the south + CA is by far the best and won all but 2 or 3 state titles in past 25 years (not counting Hodgson and Middletown which are now the top class)

That doesn’t make sense to not count Hodgson or Middletown. Also Howard st. Es and Concord have plenty of championships