Week 8 Playoff Projection 2A

[Titanium Shadow]

The only game that was an upset in Week 7 (again, upset according to the computer ratings) was Friends beating Howard. This changed some seeding and bonus point calculations, but did not change the teams projected to make the playoffs. The projected playoff teams and seeding as of Week 8 are below.

Seed	Team	District Wins	District Losses	Overall Wins	Overall Losses	Points	Bonus Points	Index	Opponent Win Percentage
1	Woodbridge	6	0	10	0	42	12	5.40	56%
2	DMA	6	0	10	0	40	10	5.00	47%
3	Archmere	6	0	9	1	38	11	4.90	51%
4	Caravel	5	1	9	1	36	10	4.60	55%
5	Friends	5	1	9	1	36	9	4.50	50%
6	Delmar	3	2	6	3	26	14	4.44	62%
7	St. Mark's	5	1	7	3	28	11	3.90	48%
8	Howard	4	2	6	4	24	14	3.80	60%
9	Tower Hill	2	3	6	3	24	9	3.67	49%
10	Milford	2	3	5	4	22	9	3.44	54%
11	Concord	4	2	5	5	20	10	3.00	47%
12	Newark	3	3	5	5	20	6	2.60	37%

Bonus points:

Team	Bonus points
Woodbridge	2 St Mark's, 1 Tech, 1 Delmar, 2 Laurel, 3 Caravel, 1 Milford, 1 Lake, 1 Howard
Archmere	1 Tatnall, 1 Howard, 3 Friends, 2 StM, 1 TH, 3 DMA
Caravel	1 Tech, 3 WB, 1 Lake, 1 Delmar, 1 Milford, 3 St E
DMA	2 Bonner, 1 Howard, 2 St Mark's, 3 Archmere, 1 Newark, 1 Concord
Friends	1 Delmar, 1 Tatnall, 1 TH, 3 Archmere, 1 Howard, 2 St A
Delmar	3 Friends, 3 WB , 3 Caravel, 1 Lake, 1 Tech, 1 IR, Laurel 2
St. Mark's	3 WB, 1 Newark, 3 Archmere, 1 Concord, 3 DMA
Howard	1 Concord, 3 Archmere, 3 DMA, 3 Friends, 1 TH, 3 WB
Tower Hill	2 Friends, 2 St A, 3 Archmere, 1 Howard, 1 Tatnall
Milford	1 Lake, 1 Central, 3 WB, 1 Tech, 3 Caravel
Concord	1 Howard, 1 Newark, 3 Caravel, 2 St M, 3 DMA
Newark	1 Concord, 2 St M, 3 DMA

Edit: Had 6-3 Delmar giving 2 Bonus Points. Fixed to only give 1 Bonus Point.

Edit 2: DMA is now rated higher than Archmere, changing the projected outcome of their week 10 game, and moving DMA up to the 2nd seed and Archmere down to the 3rd seed.

 

[Titanium Shadow]

For the Delmar fans (hello to my son's friends), below is what the final standings are projected to be if Delmar wins out (Go Wildcats!). Note that Delmar moves up to the fourth seed and gets a first round bye.

Seed	Team	District Wins	District Losses	Overall Wins	Overall Losses	Points	Bonus Points	Index	Opponent Win Percentage
1	Woodbridge	6	0	10	0	42	13	5.50	57%
2	DMA	6	0	10	0	40	10	5.00	50%
3	Archmere	6	0	9	1	38	11	4.90	53%
4	Delmar	4	1	7	2	30	14	4.89	62%
5	Friends	5	1	9	1	36	10	4.60	59%
6	Caravel	4	2	8	2	32	11	4.30	56%
7	St. Mark's	5	1	7	3	28	11	3.90	51%
8	Howard	4	2	6	4	24	14	3.80	59%
9	Tower Hill	3	3	6	3	28	9	3.70	53%
10	Milford	2	3	5	4	22	9	3.44	44%
11	Concord	4	2	5	5	20	10	3.00	48%
12	Newark	3	3	5	5	20	6	2.60	39%

 

[Longagoplayer]

@Titanium Shadow so adding up the percentages for DMA and Friends:

Friends opponents 59% win percentage
DMA opponents 50% win percentage

 

[Titanium Shadow]

@Titanium Shadow so adding up the percentages for DMA and Friends:

Friends opponents 59% win percentage
DMA opponents 50% win percentage

Is that the projected final numbers or the current numbers @Longagoplayer?

 

[Longagoplayer]

Is that the projected final numbers or the current numbers @Longagoplayer?

@Titanium Shadow those were the projected

 

[BackinBlack86]

Can you please fix Archmere... It's diving me crazy cuz I can't fix it ..lol

 

[BackinBlack86]

For the Delmar fans (hello to my son's friends), below is what the final standings are projected to be if Delmar wins out (Go Wildcats!). Note that Delmar moves up to the third seed and gets a first round bye.

Seed	Team	Projected District Wins	Projected District Losses	Overall Wins	Overall Losses	Projected Points	Projected Bonus Points	Index
1	Woodbridge	6	0	10	0	42	13	5.50
2	Archemre	6	0	10	0	42	11	5.30
3	Delmar	4	1	7	2	30	14	4.89
T4	DMA	6	0	9	1	36	10	4.60
T4	Friends	5	1	9	1	36	10	4.60
6	Caravel	4	2	8	2	32	11	4.30
7	St. Mark's	5	1	7	3	28	11	3.90
8	Howard	4	2	6	4	24	14	3.80
9	Tower Hill	3	3	7	3	28	9	3.70
10	Milford	2	3	5	4	22	9	3.44
11	Concord	4	2	5	5	20	10	3.00
12	Newark	3	3	5	5	20	6	2.60

 

[Titanium Shadow]

@Titanium Shadow those were the projected

Thanks @Longagoplayer. Updated projections with the win % tie breaker.

 

[Titanium Shadow]

Can you please fix Archmere... It's diving me crazy cuz I can't fix it ..lol

Thanks for pointing that out @BackinBlack86. Fixed.

 

[Titanium Shadow]

For those of you who don't know, @BackinBlack86 is a Caravel fan.

 

[MikeAlbero]

However the playoff seeding winds up…. There are going to be some great quarterfinal football games when they get to the final 8.

 

[Titanium Shadow]

Had 6-3 Delmar giving 2 Bonus Points. Fixed projections in first post to only give 1 Bonus Point from Delmar.

 

[BackinBlack86]

@Titanium Shadow haha.. just stirring up some 💩 Lt.BiB is in town and we will be attending this week.. 😁


Flashback 🤫

 

[Longagoplayer]

For those of you who don't know, @BackinBlack86 is a Caravel fan.

Quote definitely makes a lot more sense now. While reading it I thought I was having a stroke because my brain hurt so much 🙃

 

[Ikeyfbst2]

Quote definitely makes a lot more sense now. While reading it I thought I was having a stroke because my brain hurt so much 🙃

I know alright, that BIB guy is nothing but trouble. I had a lawn Gnome stolen last year, the night of the Caravel game last year. I know it was you BIB, gonna get you back!!!!!
Couldn't make the game my ass!!!!

 

[Huskerman7]

Our newest ep is up if interested. We break down 1A & 2A playoff picture, district by district

 

[Titanium Shadow]

Our newest ep is up if interested. We break down 1A & 2A playoff picture, district by district

I expect residuals if you used my analysis

 

[HSftballlaxFan]

Titanium…..your bonus points….I might be missing something but how is any of the teams giving 3 bonus points in your calculations…they have to be a .900 team….I’m guessing these are just your final predictions? Not current bonus points?

 

[Titanium Shadow]

Titanium…..your bonus points….I might be missing something but how is any of the teams giving 3 bonus points in your calculations…they have to be a .900 team….I’m guessing these are just your final predictions? Not current bonus points?

It's a projection of the final standings. All games are projected based on the computer ratings as of the week the projections are made.

 

[HSftballlaxFan]

I understand now. Thank you!! In the process of doing mine and I knew yours and mine didn’t match.

trying to figure out bonus points giving me a headache. I miss the 7/8…9/10 format. Not the record percentage. Now I have to go back and find out which teams are only playing 8/9/10 games total to calculate.

 

[BackinBlack86]

. Now I have to go back and find out which teams are only playing 8/9/10 games total to calculate.

no you don't

The teams win percentage is on the standings page of Websiteforsports and MaxPreps. If you are doing current not projected. But you should just wait to do the bonus at the end because if a team is at .700 now they may not be there in the end.

You could use a formula for guaranteed to give off based on current wins

10 game team: 5wins 1pt, 7wins 2pts, 9wins 3pts
9 game team: 5wins 1pt, 7wins 2pts, 9 wins 3pts
8 game team: 4 wins 1pt, 6wins 2pts, 8wins 3pts
7 game team: 4wins 1pt, 5wins 2pts, 7wins 3pts

*it's 7 games to qualify now not 8

keep in mind games could get cancelled and possibly change the outcome. 10 and 9 game teams it is the same number of wins for the bonus. but let's say a 9 games scheduled team has 6 wins currently so they are giving 1 BP now but if they get a game cancelled and don't win again they would then be a 8 game team with 6 wins and give 2 BP's

 

[Titanium Shadow]

no you don't

The teams win percentage is on the standings page of Websiteforsports and MaxPreps. If you are doing current not projected. But you should just wait to do the bonus at the end because if a team is at .700 now they may not be there in the end.

You could use a formula for guaranteed to give off based on current wins

10 game team: 5wins 1pt. 7wins 2pts, 9wins 3pts
9 game team: 5wins 1pt, 7wins 2pts, 9 wins 3pts
8 game team: 4 wins 1pt, 6wins 2pts, 8wins 3pts
7 game team: 4wins 1 pt, 5 wins 2pts, 7wins 3pts

*it's 7 games to qualify now not 8

keep in mind games could get cancelled and possibly change the outcome. 10 and 9 game teams it is the same number of wins for the bonus. but let's say a 9 games scheduled team has 6 wins currently so they are giving 1 BP now but if they get a game cancelled and don't win again they would then be a 8 game team with 6 wins and give 2 BP's

The projections last year were not very helpful due to all the games that got cancelled. They will most likely be a lot better this year, but things could easily change.

 

[HSftballlaxFan]

no you don't

The teams win percentage is on the standings page of Websiteforsports and MaxPreps. If you are doing current not projected. But you should just wait to do the bonus at the end because if a team is at .700 now they may not be there in the end.

You could use a formula for guaranteed to give off based on current wins

10 game team: 5wins 1pt, 7wins 2pts, 9wins 3pts
9 game team: 5wins 1pt, 7wins 2pts, 9 wins 3pts
8 game team: 4 wins 1pt, 6wins 2pts, 8wins 3pts
7 game team: 4wins 1pt, 5wins 2pts, 7wins 3pts

*it's 7 games to qualify now not 8

keep in mind games could get cancelled and possibly change the outcome. 10 and 9 game teams it is the same number of wins for the bonus. but let's say a 9 games scheduled team has 6 wins currently so they are giving 1 BP now but if they get a game cancelled and don't win again they would then be a 8 game team with 6 wins and give 2 BP's

I have been doing the 10 game team, 9 game team and etc but I wasn’t thinking about the website4sports percentage. I’ll keep that in mind when I get off work. Thanks BiB!

 

[BackinBlack86]

I have been doing the 10 game team, 9 game team and etc but I wasn’t thinking about the website4sports percentage. I’ll keep that in mind when I get off work. Thanks BiB!

How come Middletown hasn't put the results of the SJP game into websiteforsports yet?

 

[HSftballlaxFan]

How come Middletown hasn't put the results of the SJP game into websiteforsports yet?

In all honesty I have no clue. I’ve thought it was entered. Maybe they forget too that week and don’t remember what the score was? Which I can help them out….it was 24-6 lol. The only thing I can do is send a text to them to see if they fix it.

 

[BackinBlack86]

In all honesty I have no clue. I’ve thought it was entered. Maybe they forget too that week and don’t remember what the score was? Which I can help them out….it was 24-6 lol. The only thing I can do is send a text to them to see if they fix it.

Typically the winning team is responsible for reporting the score but obviously the out of state teams don't. Maybe someone at MT thinks it will just happen on it's own lol

 

[Titanium Shadow]

New computer ratings are out for the week and DMA is now rated higher than Archmere, causing DMA to move up to the 2nd seed and Archmere to move down to the third seed based off of the projected result of their week 10 game. Again, all results are projected.

First post updated.

 

[HSftballlaxFan]

Typically the winning team is responsible for reporting the score but obviously the out of state teams don't. Maybe someone at MT thinks it will just happen on it's own lol

I sent a text, they are gonna take care of it

 

[upstatewrestlingfan]

Anyone do the playoff points for 1A & 3A?

 

[HSftballlaxFan]

Anyone do the playoff points for 1A & 3A?

I’m in the middle of it. I’ll have them posted later this afternoon after work.

 

[upstatewrestlingfan]

I’m in the middle of it. I’ll have them posted later this afternoon after work.

Awesome, thanks

 

[Titanium Shadow]

Anyone do the playoff points for 1A & 3A?

I don't care enough about 1A or 3A to spend the time to do projections for them.

 

[Longagoplayer]

@Titanium Shadow I did Woodbridges projected win % at 57% if you wanted to add that

 

[Titanium Shadow]

@Titanium Shadow I did Woodbridges projected win % at 57% if you wanted to add that

Thanks for the help @Longagoplayer. Updated above.

 

[Longagoplayer]

Remaining opponent win % for D2 projected

Archmere 53%
Delmar 54%
St. Marks 51%
Howard 59%
Tower Hill 53%
Milford 44%
Concord 48%
Newark 39%.

I'm pretty sure that these are rights lol.

 

[Titanium Shadow]

Remaining opponent win % for D2 projected

Archmere 53%
Delmar 54%
St. Marks 51%
Howard 59%
Tower Hill 53%
Milford 44%
Concord 48%
Newark 39%.

I'm pretty sure that these are rights lol.

They only become critical after all games are played and final tie breakers are needed. They become more accurate as the season winds down, providing better projections. And they have to be checked each week to make sure the games that were projected for that week turned out as projected.

A 1% difference is only one game out of the 100 played and could easily change when projecting 30 games. A 5 or 6% difference is 5 or 6 games and probably won't even if projecting more than 30 games. Three weeks left in the season (~30 games projected/team) is probably the earliest you can even do a reasonably accurate projection of opponent wins.

 

[Titanium Shadow]

@Longagoplayer I spot checked Delmar's numbers and came up with a projected 62% opponent Win Percentage:

Team	Wins	Losses
Friends	9​	1​
Red Lion	3​	7​
Woodbridge	10​	0​
Cape	1​	9​
Tech	5​	5​
IR	5​	4​
Caravel	9​	1​
Lake	5​	5​
Laurel	8​	2​
Total	55​	34​
	Win %	62%​

Can you check your numbers when you get a chance?

 

[Longagoplayer]

You don't have the bonner game for DMA which is 8 Wins and I believe I had Conrad as 4-6 on the year

 

[Longagoplayer]

And you are right on Delmar I may have accidently did it off of 10 games and not 9

 

[Titanium Shadow]

You don't have the bonner game for DMA which is 8 Wins and I believe I had Conrad as 4-6 on the year

I noticed I left Bonner off of DMAs calculation.