Week 9 Playoff Projection 2A

[Titanium Shadow]

There were two "upsets" this week. Sussex Tech beat Milford to take Milford's place in the projected playoff picture and Tower Hill beat Howard to move Tower Hill up and Howard down in the projected playoff seedings.

Seed	Team	District Wins	District Losses	Overall Wins	Overall Losses	Points	Bonus Points	Index	Opponent Win Percentage
1	Woodbridge	6	0	10	0	42	11	5.30	55.1%
2	DMA	6	0	10	0	40	10	5.00	46.0%
3	Archmere	6	0	9	1	38	12	5.00	54.7%
4	Caravel	5	1	9	1	36	10	4.60	55.1%
5	Friends	5	1	9	1	36	10	4.60	50.5%
6	Delmar	3	2	6	3	26	14	4.44	62.9%
7	Tower Hill	3	2	7	2	28	10	4.22	49.4%
8	St. Mark's	5	1	7	3	28	11	3.90	48.0%
9	Tech	3	3	6	4	24	10	3.40	51.5%
10	Howard	3	3	5	5	16	15	3.10	60.4%
11	Concord	4	2	5	5	20	10	3.00	45.4%
12	Newark	3	3	5	5	20	7	2.70	37.0%

Team	Bonus points
Woodbridge	2 St Mark's, 1 Tech, 1 Delmar, 2 Laurel, 3 Caravel, 1 Lake, 1 Howard
Archmere	1 Tatnall, 1 Howard, 3 Friends, 2 StM, 2 TH, 3 DMA
DMA	2 Bonner, 1 Howard, 2 St Mark's, 3 Archmere, 1 Newark, 1 Concord
Caravel	1 Tech, 1 Concord, 3 WB, 1 Lake, 1 Delmar, 3 St E
Friends	1 Delmar, 1 Tatnall, 2 TH, 3 Archmere, 1 Howard, 2 St A
Delmar	3 Friends, 3 WB , 3 Caravel, 1 Lake, 1 Tech, 1 IR ,2 Laurel
Tower Hill	3 Friends, 2 St A, 3 Archmere, 1 Howard, 1 Tatnall
St. Mark's	3 WB, 1 Newark, 2 Archmere, 1 Concord, 3 DMA
Tech	2 Laurel, 3 Caravel, 3 Woodbridge, 1 Lake, 1 Delmar
Howard	1 Concord, 3 Archmere, 3 DMA, 3 Friends, 2 TH, 3 WB
Concord	1, Howard, 1 Newark, 3 Caravel, 2 St M, 3 DMA
Newark	1 Concord, 2 St M, 1 Lake, 3 DMA

Edit: Forfeits included and all game projections updated. 4th/5th seeds are projected to come down to Opponent Wins tiebreaker.

 

[Longagoplayer]

@Titanium Shadow I'm not sure how much it would change but I do believe Tower Hills first game of the year was cancelled and they will only playing a 9 game schedule this year.

 

[Titanium Shadow]

@Titanium Shadow I'm not sure how much it would change but I do believe Tower Hills first game of the year was cancelled and they will only playing a 9 game schedule this year.

Fixed, and you were right, it didn't change anything. Thank you.

 

[CityFielder]

Archmere-AI is now officially a forfeit, which will move numbers around a little. Will presumably also be forfeits officially for AI vs Howard and vs Charter.

 

[BackinBlack86]

Howard will be 3-3 ID and 5-5 overall

However Mt Pleasant can still get in over them if they can find a way to beat Friends this week...

TH plays Tatnall week 10 and Mt P plays Milford

Wonder if the TH v Mt P game mattered for playoffs inclusion would it be considered to mix up the opponents to get the TH v Mt. P game in.. TH plays Mt P and Tatnall would play Milford?

 

[Titanium Shadow]

Archmere-AI is now officially a forfeit, which will move numbers around a little. Will presumably also be forfeits officially for AI vs Howard and vs Charter.

I thought the AI games would be no contest. I will update the projection tonight to make them forfeits.

 

[Huskerman7]

Howard will be 3-3 ID and 5-5 overall

However Mt Pleasant can still get in over them if they can find a way to beat Friends this week...

TH plays Tatnall week 10 and Mt P plays Milford

Wonder if the TH v Mt P game mattered for playoffs inclusion would it be considered to mix up the opponents to get the TH v Mt. P game in.. TH plays Mt P and Tatnall would play Milford?

Spoke with the committee chair this week, and they haven’t yet decided how to handle this if Mount upsets Friends. Don’t know how you could possibly deny Mount in that case though. Howard will scream about their 36-8 demolition of MP, but not sure they have a case.

 

[First_state_gridiron]

I thought the AI games would be no contest. I will update the projection tonight to make them forfeits.

No contest are for COVID AI forfeits are due to number of players. Thermos roster was small and they had injuries and then several players supposedly quit

 

[BackinBlack86]

Man AI fell fast.. only had 20 players on roster to start.. fast tracking to 1A..SMH

 

[Longagoplayer]

It is crazy to think that a school with almost 1000 students would only have 20 kids come out to play...I'm sure that there are a lot of reasons for this buy I wonder if the fear of concussions and CTE and parents not wanting their kids to participate is more prevalent then ever before.

 

[First_state_gridiron]

AI is not even close to 1000 students, i believe closer to 600

 

[Longagoplayer]

AI is not even close to 1000 students, i believe closer to 600

One website I looked at had it at 999 and another had it at 807 for 2019-2020

 

[BackinBlack86]

https://www.doe.k12.de.us/site/handlers/filedownload.ashx?moduleinstanceid=2782&dataid=25167&FileName=FINAL%20FY%2021%20Web%20Version%20updated%207.12.2021.pdf

AI- 558 regular 159 special so 717 for placement count

 

[Longagoplayer]

I'm surprised it was that low...but still even with that number 20 does still seem like a low number. And I wonder if where I looked somehow combined the high school and middle school since they have the same name.

 

[BackinBlack86]

I'm surprised it was that low...but still even with that number 20 does still seem like a low number. And I wonder if where I looked somehow combined the high school and middle school since they have the same name.

It was only just a few years ago they had over 1100 and were in D1

2010-1386
2013- 1110
2015 - 1093
2016- 1062
then a steady yearly decline from here

 

[Longagoplayer]

It was only just a few years ago they had over 1100 and were in D1

That is just insane to lose almost half of your student body.

 

[First_state_gridiron]

i wonder what the traditional D1/D2 split would be like now.

 

[Titanium Shadow]

Updated projections with current data.

 

[Longagoplayer]

@Titanium Shadow if the season projects with the way you have it DMA would be the two seed and Archmere would be the 3 seed. The first tiebreaker is head to head and this projection would have DMA beating Archmere.

 

[Titanium Shadow]

@Titanium Shadow if the season projects with the way you have it DMA would be the two seed and Archmere would be the 3 seed. The first tiebreaker is head to head and this projection would have DMA beating Archmere.

My spreadsheet doesn't have head to head available for sorting @Longagoplayer so I missed that. Thanks.