Early Playoff Teams

[delawarenole]

Did this last year wound up being pretty accurate. Think we have seen enough to make some early guesses.

Locks (%99)

Salesianum
Cape

Most Likely (%75)
Appo - even posing to Archmere, Cape and CR worst record is 9-6 and they probably in Blue Hen A.
Archmere 10+ wins easy
Sanford 10+ wins easy
Tatnall 10+ wins easy
Smyrna - 12-3 at worst puts them in
Middletown - worst case is 11-4 think that gets them in
Tower Hill - 9 wins likely, Tons a quality points
Dover - will get 9 to 10 wins should be enough

Still have a shot (50/50)
Charter - despite 6-1 record they have a hard schedule left and points will not get them in at 7-9 or 8-8 like last year
CR - good team but the schedule is ugly last 8 games.
DMA - 8 wins but many more then that will be hard to find
Milford - probably gets to 8 or 9 wins
Indian River - won 5 straight with 9+ looking realistic
Newark Charter - 9+ wins possible
STG
Conrad
Mt Pleasant


A few things stand out.

Top heavy after # 6 or so there is a big drop off
A team with losing record probably makes it in with quality points
Really a two team race right now with sallies & cape
Some one I don’t have on this list makes it in

 

[Leverage1991]

Did this last year wound up being pretty accurate. Think we have seen enough to make some early guesses.

Locks (%99)

Salesianum
Cape

Most Likely (%75)
Appo - even posing to Archmere, Cape and CR worst record is 9-6 and they probably in Blue Hen A.
Archmere 10+ wins easy
Sanford 10+ wins easy
Tatnall 10+ wins easy
Smyrna - 12-3 at worst puts them in
Middletown - worst case is 11-4 think that gets them in
Tower Hill - 9 wins likely, Tons a quality points
Dover - will get 9 to 10 wins should be enough

Still have a shot (50/50)
Charter - despite 6-1 record they have a hard schedule left and points will not get them in at 7-9 or 8-8 like last year
CR - good team but the schedule is ugly last 8 games.
DMA - 8 wins but many more then that will be hard to find
Milford - probably gets to 8 or 9 wins
Indian River - won 5 straight with 9+ looking realistic
Newark Charter - 9+ wins possible
STG
Conrad
Mt Pleasant


A few things stand out.

Top heavy after # 6 or so there is a big drop off
A team with losing record probably makes it in with quality points
Really a two team race right now with sallies & cape
Some one I don’t have on this list makes it in

What order will top 4 be you think ?

 

[delawarenole]

What order will top 4 be you think ?

God thats tough - Sallies has some real hard games left its possible they are only 9-6 or 10-5 (actually this is the likely best record they have) byt they will get tons of quality points. But a wild guess here:

1) Cape
2) Sallies
3) Archmere
4) Tatnall or Sanford

 

[Leverage1991]

God thats tough - Sallies has some real hard games left its possible they are only 9-6 or 10-5 (actually this is the likely best record they have) byt they will get tons of quality points. But a wild guess here:

1) Cape
2) Sallies
3) Archmere
4) Tatnall or Sanford

Thanks
Agree, Those bonus points add up quick the strength of schedule really helps.

 

[delawarenole]

Thanks
Agree, Those bonus points add up quick the strength of schedule really helps.

I didn’t realize how much of an impact they have until last year when I started looking closely at it. 7-8 Charter made it an 6-9 TH almost did because both had huge quality points.

That’s why it’s touchy on the bottom half of the bracket. Teams in Blue Hen, Henlopen South, etc that don’t schedule OOS and harder games (cape, Archmere) can get bumped. An example would Middletown vs Appo this year. Say MT finishes 11-4 and Appo 9-6, Appo would probably go over MT due to 6-8 more quality points which = 3 to 4 wins.

For the record think they both making it this year it was asxample.

 

[E-Torro]

From DIAA:
Index Calculation: The tournament index will be calculated according to the following procedures: 1. Teams will receive two (2) points for each win and 0 points for each loss played during the regular season. 2. In addition, one (1) bonus point will be awarded for each opponent with a regular season win/loss record of .501 or better. 3. An additional bonus point will be awarded for each opponent with a regular season win/loss record of .701 or better. 4. Each team’s point index will be determined by dividing the total points earned by the number of varsity games played.

So a team playing Sallies will likely not get the 2 bonus points, only 1 because Sals plays such a tough out of state schedule and will not end up with the winning % over .700

 

[delawarenole]

From DIAA:
Index Calculation: The tournament index will be calculated according to the following procedures: 1. Teams will receive two (2) points for each win and 0 points for each loss played during the regular season. 2. In addition, one (1) bonus point will be awarded for each opponent with a regular season win/loss record of .501 or better. 3. An additional bonus point will be awarded for each opponent with a regular season win/loss record of .701 or better. 4. Each team’s point index will be determined by dividing the total points earned by the number of varsity games played.

So a team playing Sallies will likely not get the 2 bonus points, only 1 because Sals plays such a tough out of state schedule and will not end up with the winning % over .700

Yeah this year thats true - usually they are good for 2 points. It pretty much if a team wins 8 games its worth 1, if they win 11 or more they are worth 2.

Now Sallies should get a ton of points themselves as many of the teams they will play will be 2, if not at least 1.

 

[E-Torro]

Yeah this year thats true - usually they are good for 2 points. It pretty much if a team wins 8 games its worth 1, if they win 11 or more they are worth 2.

Now Sallies should get a ton of points themselves as many of the teams they will play will be 2, if not at least 1.

While true that they will get the 1 or 2 bonus points, they will not get the 2 for wins as they've lost to most of those teams so it will even itself out.

 

[BafpLLJ]

I think you’re sleeping on Sussex central. Wilm. U commit Devin pearsal is an animal on face offs and number 10 knows how to finish.

 

[E-Torro]

I think you’re sleeping on Sussex central. Wilm. U commit Devin pearsal is an animal on face offs and number 10 knows how to finish.

Number 10 is very good. Got to watch him play last week. With a 1-7 record I don't think playoffs are in the cards for them but would love to see them continue to build their program.

 

[delawarenole]

While true that they will get the 1 or 2 bonus points, they will not get the 2 for wins as they've lost to most of those teams so it will even itself out.

I see them at 9-6 or 10-5 with 1 or 2 quality points for 2/3 of thier schedule they still probably top 3 or 4 seed.

Now if they lose a game or two I dont expect - I expect loss to Hill & Malver - then things could get dicey for them.

 

[Edp445]

I think you’re sleeping on Sussex central. Wilm. U commit Devin pearsal is an animal on face offs and number 10 knows how to finish.

You’re smoking dick.

 

[Leverage1991]

I think you’re sleeping on Sussex central. Wilm. U commit Devin pearsal is an animal on face offs and number 10 knows how to finish.

Our definition of good is definitely different

 

[Fightingbluehen]

Did this last year wound up being pretty accurate. Think we have seen enough to make some early guesses.

Locks (%99)

Salesianum
Cape

Most Likely (%75)
Appo - even posing to Archmere, Cape and CR worst record is 9-6 and they probably in Blue Hen A.
Archmere 10+ wins easy
Sanford 10+ wins easy
Tatnall 10+ wins easy
Smyrna - 12-3 at worst puts them in
Middletown - worst case is 11-4 think that gets them in
Tower Hill - 9 wins likely, Tons a quality points
Dover - will get 9 to 10 wins should be enough

Still have a shot (50/50)
Charter - despite 6-1 record they have a hard schedule left and points will not get them in at 7-9 or 8-8 like last year
CR - good team but the schedule is ugly last 8 games.
DMA - 8 wins but many more then that will be hard to find
Milford - probably gets to 8 or 9 wins
Indian River - won 5 straight with 9+ looking realistic
Newark Charter - 9+ wins possible
STG
Conrad
Mt Pleasant


A few things stand out.

Top heavy after # 6 or so there is a big drop off
A team with losing record probably makes it in with quality points
Really a two team race right now with sallies & cape
Some one I don’t have on this list makes it in

Looks like a pretty solid list- from what I’ve seen (and I’m not super involved in DE lax, just a spectator) I don’t think smyrna is quite as good as their record reflects, possibly Sanford too and I think CR is actually better than theirs reflects. Just my opinion but I guess we will see next week- It’s very possible that I’m just a crazy old man who should stick to crossword puzzles.

 

[84rider]

Big win for DMA over Appo today imo

 

[delawarenole]

Big win for DMA over Appo today imo

Agreed - puts Appo at risk and probably saves DMA season. 3-5 with their remaining schedule would have bene tough.

Appo now have to win either the CR or Middletown game or they are in trouble - assume loss to Archmere & Cape which is likely. Newark, Delcastle, STG, WM Penn are 4 pretty easy wins so thats 7 - need to get to 8-7 and beat Mtown to win Blue Hen and get autobid.

 

[84rider]

Correct, that about sums it up

 

[MightyMik]

Middletown wins flight A this year. They have come a long way and the players this year have put in off season work playing outside of season like many Appo kids.

 

[E-Torro]

Middletown wins flight A this year. They have come a long way and the players this year have put in off season work playing outside of season like many Appo kids.

Just judging by the results they are playing well ( I haven't seen them). Seems that the last game against Appo will be a good one to watch.

 

[delawarenole]

Middletown wins flight A this year. They have come a long way and the players this year have put in off season work playing outside of season like many Appo kids.

Plus they are mostly SR's and that helps too.

I think Flight A will be settled in that last game between MT & Appo. If Appo doesnt get the D resolved MT wins, if Appo gets that settled I think they win.

 

[delawarenole]

Plus they are mostly SR's and that helps too.

I think Flight A will be settled in that last game between MT & Appo. If Appo doesnt get the D resolved MT wins, if Appo gets that settled I think they win.

So saw them last night against Caravel. MT has a good group of seniors but they aren’t better then Appo, despite them beating DMA and Appo losing.

Let me rephrase that - Appo is definitely more talented and IF they get their act together they beat MT 8 out of 10 games. BUT being honest they haven’t gotten it together in a single game this season. Which is funny because they whipped Friends, Kenneth, Dover, etc in pre season but have. Not played close to that since then.

 

[Downstate4]

I think you’re sleeping on Sussex central. Wilm. U commit Devin pearsal is an animal on face offs and number 10 knows how to finish.

Lol.. Smh

 

[E-Torro]

So saw them last night against Caravel. MT has a good group of seniors but they aren’t better then Appo, despite them beating DMA and Appo losing.

Let me rephrase that - Appo is definitely more talented and IF they get their act together they beat MT 8 out of 10 games. BUT being honest they haven’t gotten it together in a single game this season. Which is funny because they whipped Friends, Kenneth, Dover, etc in pre season but have. Not played close to that since then.

As a Cape parent, Appo always makes me nervous!!!

 

[delawarenole]

Pretty big week/weekend coming up that will have significant impact on the playoffs I think:

Tatnall vs Sanford - winner stands a good chance of being 13 or 14 win team in top 3 seeds.

Appo vs CR - think both make the playoffs but the winner will be a top 8, while loser maybe in trouble in the bottom half of the brackets.

Archmere vs Cape - good game. Both are playoff bound but impacts seeding.

Smyrna vs CR - honeslty think Smyrna might be overrated this is a chance to show they arent. A loss here and then play Appo Friday night could actually put CR on the bubble.

IR vs Lake Forest - these are two teams that could actually make a run for one of the bottom 3-4 spots. Big game for them.

Dover vs Mtown - interesting game. Dover needs some more wins to make the playoffs and Mtown is one of only 2 undefeated teams. From a schedule perspective I think Mtown makes the playoffs regaardless of the out come of this game but Dover might not.

Good week of lacrosse. Should be fun to watch as it plays out.

 

[Leverage1991]

Pretty big week/weekend coming up that will have significant impact on the playoffs I think:

Tatnall vs Sanford - winner stands a good chance of being 13 or 14 win team in top 3 seeds.

Appo vs CR - think both make the playoffs but the winner will be a top 8, while loser maybe in trouble in the bottom half of the brackets.

Archmere vs Cape - good game. Both are playoff bound but impacts seeding.

Smyrna vs CR - honeslty think Smyrna might be overrated this is a chance to show they arent. A loss here and then play Appo Friday night could actually put CR on the bubble.

IR vs Lake Forest - these are two teams that could actually make a run for one of the bottom 3-4 spots. Big game for them.

Dover vs Mtown - interesting game. Dover needs some more wins to make the playoffs and Mtown is one of only 2 undefeated teams. From a schedule perspective I think Mtown makes the playoffs regaardless of the out come of this game but Dover might not.

Good week of lacrosse. Should be fun to watch as it plays out.

Great summary and analysis. Thanks!

 

[84rider]

Great summary and analysis. Thanks!

Ditto!!!

 

[Fightingbluehen]

Looks like a pretty solid list- from what I’ve seen (and I’m not super involved in DE lax, just a spectator) I don’t think smyrna is quite as good as their record reflects, possibly Sanford too and I think CR is actually better than theirs reflects. Just my opinion but I guess we will see next week- It’s very possible that I’m just a crazy old man who should stick to crossword puzzles.

I guess I’ll put the crosswords down for now.. CR is playing well which could make them a problem for some teams if they continue. We are getting to that part of the season which separates and identifies the good and great teams, it’s fun to see.

 

[delawarenole]

Yep they put th

I guess I’ll put the crosswords down for now.. CR is playing well which could make them a problem for some teams if they continue. We are getting to that part of the season which separates and identifies the good and great teams, it’s fun to see.

e smack down on Smyrna. Friday night CR vs Appo is starting to look like a potential classic and definitely impacts the playoff picture.

 

[laxdeusa]

Yeah this year thats true - usually they are good for 2 points. It pretty much if a team wins 8 games its worth 1, if they win 11 or more they are worth 2.

Now Sallies should get a ton of points themselves as many of the teams they will play will be 2, if not at least 1.

 

[laxdeusa]

I looked at the records on Inside Lacrosse and it looks like the Sals will get a bonus point for most of the teams on their schedule. It also appears they have a chance for 2 bonus points for 7 teams on the schedule. They will need them because they have 5 loses already and tough games remaining against Hill and Fairfield Prep

 

[delawarenole]

I looked at the records on Inside Lacrosse and it looks like the Sals will get a bonus point for most of the teams on their schedule. It also appears they have a chance for 2 bonus points for 7 teams on the schedule. They will need them because they have 5 loses already and tough games remaining against Hill and Fairfield Prep

Yeah I see them losing Hill definitely, how good is Fairfield Prep?

 

[laxdeusa]

Fairfield is a "very" good team. Sallies beat Fairfield by 1 goal last season. This year Fairfield is 5-2 with loses to New York powers Massapequa and Chaminade. Chaminade beat the Sals by 7 and beat Fairfield by 4. The Sals can definitely win but it will depend on what team shows up.