Playoff Picture Pretty Clear

[delawarenole]

At this point you can get a feel for the wins and quality points. There are roughly 20 teams that have a shot to make it.

Locks - %99+
Cape - 13 wins and #1 seed look likely
Sanford - 14 wins
Middletown - Undefeated? I think 14-1 top 5 seed
Tatnall - Top 5 seed
Archmere
Sals - 8 or 9 wins but so many quality point 6 seed or higher is likely
DMA - 10+ wins
Tower Hill - 9 wins likely but tons of quality points
Dover - 8 or 9 wins with tons of quality points
CR - 9 or 10 wins with tons of quality points

Have a legit shot - %75+ likely
Charter - 8 or 9 wins with tons of quality points
Smyrna - lack of quality points only reason not in lock section
Appo - around 8 wins with tons of quality points

50/50 at best
Lake
Newark Charter
Caravel - around 8 wins with tons of quality points
Milford - lack of quality points
STG - weak schedule going ti hurt them
Mt Pleasant - weak schedule going ti hurt them
St Andrews
IR - weak schedule going ti hurt them

 

[DuckCreekCrusader]

My thoughts 99% lock:
Cape 1 seed
Sals 2 seed with out of state opponent points
These 3 are interchangable
Tatnall
Sanford
Archmere
MTOWN (top 6)
Fighting for home field
Dover
SMY
TH
Top 10
CR
Caravel

Rest of field:
Everyone else- Appo quality points may hurt them in the end. Rustin team doesn't look like they are above .501 and St. Mary's only giving a point bc of tough MIAA schedule.

 

[delawarenole]

My thoughts 99% lock:
Cape 1 seed
Sals 2 seed with out of state opponent points
These 3 are interchangable
Tatnall
Sanford
Archmere
MTOWN (top 6)
Fighting for home field
Dover
SMY
TH
Top 10
CR
Caravel

Rest of field:
Everyone else- Appo quality points may hurt them in the end. Rustin team doesn't look like they are above .501 and St. Mary's only giving a point bc of tough MIAA schedule.

Appo may come down to having to beat MT - win and they are in due to Blue Hen autobid. Lose and index might kill them.

 

[E-Torro]

My thoughts 99% lock:
Cape 1 seed
Sals 2 seed with out of state opponent points
These 3 are interchangable
Tatnall
Sanford
Archmere
MTOWN (top 6)
Fighting for home field
Dover
SMY
TH
Top 10
CR
Caravel

Rest of field:
Everyone else- Appo quality points may hurt them in the end. Rustin team doesn't look like they are above .501 and St. Mary's only giving a point bc of tough MIAA schedule.

If Sallies wins today and beat Fairfield they're likely #2. A Loss today or Fairfield or both will probably put Sanford and Tatnall ahead and possibly Middletown and Archmere

 

[delawarenole]

If Sallies wins today and beat Fairfield they're likely #2. A Loss today or Fairfield or both will probably put Sanford and Tatnall ahead and possibly Middletown and Archmere

Agreed what I saw what Sals could be as low as 5 or 6 - Sanford and Tatnall pass them if they lose today (I think they will) and the. MT & Archmere probably passes them if they lose the last game (I have no idea or insight into that game).

 

[E-Torro]

Fairfield lost to Chaminade 13-9. Sallies 13-6 is the only common opponent. Looks like it will be a good game

 

[delawarenole]

Agreed what I saw what Sals could be as low as 5 or 6 - Sanford and Tatnall pass them if they lose today (I think they will) and the. MT & Archmere probably passes them if they lose the last game (I have no idea or insight into that game).

So for Appo it will come down the MT game. Still think they should win it but it will be an intense game. MT trying to go undefeated most likely and Appo just trying to mske the playoffs. Rivalry game.

 

[HSftballlaxFan]

So for Appo it will come down the MT game. Still think they should win it but it will be an intense game. MT trying to go undefeated most likely and Appo just trying to mske the playoffs. Rivalry game.

Not a rivalry in my opinion. MT has never beaten Appo in lacrosse if my memory serves me right. Appo has dominated the series since they opened. i for one would love to see MT win it though. A chance to go undefeated in the season. And theyre having their best record so far since I was i played. Proud of those boys.

 

[delawarenole]

Not a rivalry in my opinion. MT has never beaten Appo in lacrosse if my memory serves me right. Appo has dominated the series since they opened. i for one would love to see MT win it though. A chance to go undefeated in the season. And theyre having their best record so far since I was i played. Proud of those boys.

Good group of seniors that have chemistry are hard to beat. They are playing well together. Shouldn’t overlook Charter but I do think they head into Appo 14-0

 

[delawarenole]

So the playoff picture is pretty clear if Appo beats MTown will look something like this. The bottom 13-16 could change order think they would all pretty much be tied.

1 - Cape Henlopen HS
2 - Sanford School
3 - Archmere Academy
4 - Middletown HS
5 - Tatnall School
6 - Salesianum School
7 - Tower Hill School
8 - Dover HS
9 - DE Military Academy
10 - Caesar Rodney HS
11 - Smyrna HS
12 - Charter School
13 - Caravel Academy
14 - Milford HS
15 - Appoquinimink HS
16 - Mt. Pleasant HS

If Appo loses to Mtown one of these 3 will probably replace them in the playoffs.

Indian River HS
St. Andrew's School
Newark Charter School

 

[84rider]

Not sure how Dover at 7-7 is currently occupying your #8 spot

 

[DuckCreekCrusader]

My predictions

1 - Cape Henlopen HS
2 - Sanford School
3 - Sallies (a lot of bonus with 11 out of state opponents)
4 - Tatnall
5 - Archmere
6 - Middletown
7 - Smyrna
8 - Tower HIll
9 - CR
10 - Dover
11- Charter
12 - Mt. P
13 - Caravel
14 - Milford
15 - St. Andrews
16 - DMA*
17- Appo*

*Interchangeable depending on bonus- DMA wins head to heads

 

[E-Torro]

Not sure how Dover at 7-7 is currently occupying your #8 spot

Dover gets points for many of their losses. 2 points for Cape, potentially 2 for Smyrna, 2 for Sanford, 2 for Middletown,
That's a lot of bonus points

 

[E-Torro]

Not sure how Dover at 7-7 is currently occupying your #8 spot

I've got Dover with 30-32 points and CR with 29. Very rough math and very presumptuous, however.

 

[DuckCreekCrusader]

I've got Dover with 30-32 points and CR with 29. Very rough math and very presumptuous, however.

Cr had 4 out of state games with bonus. Plus winner of Appo/Mtown will determine seed.

 

[E-Torro]

Cr had 4 out of state games with bonus. Plus winner of Appo/Mtown will determine seed.

Cr Had Kent Island - Record 9-3 (1 or 2 bonus depending on final record)
St. Peter and Paul - 5-9 record, no bonus points
Worcester Prep - 9-4 - 1 bonus point
Queen Annes - 6-7 no bonus points.
Only 2 out of state games with bonus points.

 

[E-Torro]

Cr had 4 out of state games with bonus. Plus winner of Appo/Mtown will determine seed.

Also, with Mtown and Appo, If Middletown wins they get 2 points for a win but no bonus because Appo will have a losing record. If they lose to Appo they will get one point for Appo having a winning record, so that game really only makes 1 point difference.

I think it is important to understand, unless I am wrong, you get a bonus points for playing a team with a winning record and an extra point for playing a team with a record of over 70% wins. There are no extra points to be given for playing a team out of state.

 

[DuckCreekCrusader]

Also, with Mtown and Appo, If Middletown wins they get 2 points for a win but no bonus because Appo will have a losing record. If they lose to Appo they will get one point for Appo having a winning record, so that game really only makes 1 point difference.

I think it is important to understand, unless I am wrong, you get a bonus points for playing a team with a winning record and an extra point for playing a team with a record of over 70% wins. There are no extra points to be given for playing a team out of state.

.501 is 1 pt & .701 is 2 pts.

Yup 3 additional points with opportunity with Archmere.

 

[E-Torro]

I think it is important to understand, unless I am wrong, you get a bonus points for playing a team with a winning record and an extra point for playing a team with a record of over 70% wins. There are no extra points to be given because a team is out of state.

.501 is 1 pt & .701 is 2 pts.

Yup 3 additional points with opportunity with Archmere.

Right, I think if CR loses to Archmere they finish behind Dover in points. Dover gets bonus points for teams like IR, DMA, Stephen Decatuar, Lake Forest
That is how they potentially seed higher than CR.

 

[delawarenole]

Dover gets points for many of their losses. 2 points for Cape, potentially 2 for Smyrna, 2 for Sanford, 2 for Middletown,
That's a lot of bonus points

Exactly Dover and Caravel have a ton of points

 

[delawarenole]

.501 is 1 pt & .701 is 2 pts.

Yup 3 additional points with opportunity with Archmere.

Yeah keep in mind my assessment was back of napkin and predicting final records. I am sure there will be an upset or two that changes it.

I would say it is “directional” at best.

 

[delawarenole]

some bonus point updates for OOs teams

Appo + 2 for St Mary’s 12-5

Sals & Cape +2 for Ocean City 14-1 (only loss was Sals)

Cr, Cape, etc at leas t +1 for Worcester Prep, +2 if they beat Calverton

Looks like Appo is catching a break. +1 is likely for Rustin which has won 8 straight and plays a weak Oxford team to break .500

Sals getting a bunch +2 for Easton MD, +2 Chaminade , +1 JM Bennett, +1 maybe +2 Malvern ( still have good game with Lasalle), Cape +2, Cr +1, +1 possibly Appo, +2 Hill,



Add to this list s you get other records

 

[delawarenole]

On a side note a few Appo & Mtown fans were taking me that the Blue Hen auto bid got a decent seed regardless of points. I don’t think that’s true is it? Anyone know?

My understanding was they use auto bids and points to see who is in rl then they rank order belt points / index 1 through 16

 

[DEHSFan22]

On a side note a few Appo & Mtown fans were taking me that the Blue Hen auto bid got a decent seed regardless of points. I don’t think that’s true is it? Anyone know?

My understanding was they use auto bids and points to see who is in rl then they rank order belt points / index 1 through 16

AQ gets you in, doesn't get you seeded though

 

[delawarenole]

Alright took a half hour over the weekend and looked at it. From what I can tell there are only a few games that matter left from a playoff perspective.

These teams are absolutely in:
Cape Henlopen HS
Sanford School
Archmere Academy
Salesianum School
Middletown HS
Tatnall School
DE Military Academy
Tower Hill School
Dover HS
Caesar Rodney HS
Smyrna HS

Only impact on these 11 teams above is seeding as the result of Sallies winning or lowing and IR vs Lake.

Five of these 6 are going to make it:
Lake Forest HS
Charter School
Caravel Academy
Milford HS
Appoquinimink HS
Indian River HS

This will be decided first by Appo vs MT, win and they are in. Lose the other 5 teams in this list make it. Lets assume they do beat MT then the results of the IR vs Lake game will probably decide the last 4 out of 5 on this list driven by quality points.

Its quite possible to have 4-6 teams tied from a points perspective so if Appo win the AQ then the committe is going to have to make some hard choices.

 

[Ikeyfbst2]

Milford is in by virtue of taking South, I believe.

 

[delawarenole]

Milford is in by virtue of taking South, I believe.

Damn forgot that, if that’s true then realistically we’re down to only a few games that impact list at all - mostly for seeding.

If Appo wins they are in.

If Milford is in as an AQ think IR & Lake loser is out period but both probably are regardless of who wins. And possibly could impact Charter or Caravel due to non AQ. IR va Lake still matters - +2 bonus for most henlopen south if IR wins and get to 11 wins. Impacts seeding.

 

[er43er]

Ok, I was really bored...
I think with Appo's win tonight Cape, Tatnall, Sallies, Sanford, Archmere, CR, Tower Hill, Middletown, DMA, Dover, CSW, Smyrna, Lake Forest, Appo, and Milford, are all in.. in roughly that order.
At the moment I have Caravel in the last spot but I think that could change if Sussex Academy beats Newark tomorrow. That would make SA a 1 point bonus team and could put IR in a tie with Caravel for the last spot. Not sure who would win that tie breaker. I believe a SA win would also move both Lake Forest and Milford up a spot.
I also have St Andrews, NCS, St Georges, and Mt Pleasant all missing the playoffs. St Andrews was hurt by Tower Hill's loss to Archmere today. If Tower Hill had won St Andrews would have picked up two additional bonus point because they played them twice this year.
If anyone has something different I would love to hear it.

 

[delawarenole]

So lets assume SA wins - I think they will.
1 - Caravel would be out IR beat then H2H.
2 - Appo drops to 15 and Milford is 14

If Sallies wins I have them #3, if they lose could be as low as #5.

As an Appo fan I want Sallies to lose and SA to win. Appo lands @ 15 vs Tatnall. Not a knock on them but I would rather play them then Sallies.

Plus if it worked out this way Cape & Sals would be on the opposite side of the brackets of Appo.

 

[DEHSFan22]

SA will definitely beat Newark

 

[delawarenole]

Anyone got the score of Newark vs SA

 

[Edp445]

So lets assume SA wins - I think they will.
1 - Caravel would be out IR beat then H2H.
2 - Appo drops to 15 and Milford is 14

If Sallies wins I have them #3, if they lose could be as low as #5.

As an Appo fan I want Sallies to lose and SA to win. Appo lands @ 15 vs Tatnall. Not a knock on them but I would rather play them then Sallies.

Plus if it worked out this way Cape & Sals would be on the opposite side of the brackets of Appo.

So you would rather have Cape and Sallies, the top two teams, by a mile, play in the semifinals. Solely for Appo to get knocked out of the second round instead of getting knocked out of the first round.... K

 

[er43er]

So you would rather have Cape and Sallies, the top two teams, by a mile, play in the semifinals. Solely for Appo to get knocked out of the second round instead of getting knocked out of the first round.... K

Not sure there is a fan of any team other than Cape or Sallies that wouldn’t like to see that. Anything to let your team keep playing lol.

 

[delawarenole]

So you would rather have Cape and Sallies, the top two teams, by a mile, play in the semifinals. Solely for Appo to get knocked out of the second round instead of getting knocked out of the first round.... K

Absolutely since I am an Appo fan!

 

[delawarenole]

Sallies lost so just waiting on Sussex Academy vs Newark score.

Sals @ 8-7 even with quality points fall to #5 or #6 I think.

Sussex Academy wins IR & Milford are in Caravel is out.

Newark wins Milford and Caravel are in IR is out.

So just waiting on seeding

 

[E-Torro]

Sallies lost so just waiting on Sussex Academy vs Newark score.

Sals @ 8-7 even with quality points fall to #5 or #6 I think.

Sussex Academy wins IR & Milford are in Caravel is out.

Newark wins Milford and Caravel are in IR is out.

So just waiting on seeding

Do you know the Sals score? I think they end up at 4 maybe 5.

 

[er43er]

I still have Sallies in the 3 spot with a ridiculous amount of bonus points. I actually have them tied with Tatnall with 39 total points but without looking into it further I am assuming Tatnall would win the tie breaker.

 

[E-Torro]

I still have Sallies in the 3 spot with a ridiculous amount of bonus points. I actually have them tied with Tatnall with 39 total points but without looking into it further I am assuming Tatnall would win the tie breaker.

Hmmmm I got 37 for Sallies

 

[E-Torro]

I still have Sallies in the 3 spot with a ridiculous amount of bonus points. I actually have them tied with Tatnall with 39 total points but without looking into it further I am assuming Tatnall would win the tie breaker.

Also, I don't think Tatnal would win the tie breaker. Assuming they are tied with both teams beating all common opponents and no head to head, Sallies would win strength of schedule

 

[delawarenole]

Do you know the Sals score? I think they end up at 4 maybe 5.

They lost 11-10