Early look at 2023 realignment of the realignment

[BackinBlack86]

Let's start with 3A

Changes.

3A to 12 teams- 6 div 1, 6 div 2

In order to determine which team from 2A will move up to 3A the following steps will be taken

1. District 2A schools will be contacted to see if any team is interested in voluntarily moving up. The interested team will need to complete the application for reclassification

2. If no team is interested in voluntarily moving up, we would use data from the first two seasons of the current re-alignment (combining enrollment and record over the two year period) to identify potential teams for moving up. The proposed formula would be 50% enrollment and 50% record.

3. Once teams are identified, a final team will be selected to move up.

4. No team who is the bottom half of enrollment amongst the 46 teams would be forced to move up (AKA Howard rule). They may however apply to move.


Since DMA has stated publicly they don't intend to ask to move up let's assume there are no more volunteers.

List of possible 2A candidates based on rule 4 and 2020 enrollment

St Marks (600) and Howard (875) will be close to the over/under top half in enrollment so if either of them eclipse that they will probably be the choice. If not then these schools will be in play

These are the 2A teams that would have been above cut (23) based on 2020 enrollment

10 Delcastle (1578)
12 Tech (1239)
14 Milford (1122)
17 Mt Pleasant (1078)
18 Newark (1069)
19 Concord (1052)
21 Brandywine (940)
22 McKean (911)

the cut- 23 897 (Seaford)

24 Howard (875)
25 Lake (814)

36 St Marks (600) I believe they have more now might be close to 900

 

[Shine bright like a diamond]

Thanks for the numbers Bib. Looking at the teams going up, I just do not see any who can compete with the top tier. I am not sure if the purpose is to just make it more competitive.
Do we really have 12 teams in DE for the top tier?
Is it possible to have less?

 

[BackinBlack86]

Thanks for the numbers Bib. Looking at the teams going up, I just do not see any who can compete with the top tier. I am not sure if the purpose is to just make it more competitive.
Do we really have 12 teams in DE for the top tier?
Is it possible to have less?

What do you consider competing at the top tier? If you base it on vs the top programs then we might as well have only 6 teams in the top tier and they can play each other twice a season.. which is silly. There are 2A programs that can compete with the middle of 3A and lower, hence be able to make the playoffs in 3A. Which is what I would look at. If the team can make the playoffs in the the next class up then they are OK being there

 

[Woody_Wood]

Thanks for the numbers Bib. Looking at the teams going up, I just do not see any who can compete with the top tier. I am not sure if the purpose is to just make it more competitive.
Do we really have 12 teams in DE for the top tier?
Is it possible to have less?

Just bring down CR. It would give those kids a chance to be competitive again.

 

[BackinBlack86]

Just bring down CR. It wild give those kids a chance to be competitive again.

It has already been decided on what they are doing in terms of class and division numbers. Let's just stick with that for this thread please. CR has huge enrollment numbers they need to fix things internally not be sent down a level.

 

[BackinBlack86]

reg season record 2021 and 2022

10 Delcastle (1578) 3-15
12 Tech (1239) 9-10 playoffs 2021
14 Milford (1122) 6-11
17 Mt Pleasant (1078) 8-8
18 Newark (1069) 10-8 playoffs 2021, 2022
19 Concord (1052) 7-11 playoffs 2021, 2022
21 Brandywine (940) 2-14
22 McKean (911) 5-13 (wont have 7 Sr transfers 2023)

The cut-23 879 (Seaford)

24 Howard (875) 12-6 playoffs 2021, 2022
25 Lake (814) 11-7 playoffs 2022

36 St Marks (600) 15-4 playoffs 2021 (rd2), 2022
I believe they have more now might be close to 900

 

[BackinBlack86]

So based on all that here is my prediction.. St Marks goes up. St Georges moves to div 2

Here is how I see 3A

3AD1
Middletown
Sallies
St Marks
Appo
WPenn
HVT

3AD2
Smyrna
Central
Dover
St Georges
Cape
CR

 

[BackinBlack86]

On to 2A.. 3 divisions 6 teams each

Here are the rules

In order to determine which teams from 2A will move down to 1A the following steps will be taken

1. Combining the final regular season records from 2021 and 2022 the teams with the lowest in classification winning percentage will be identified.

2. The two teams with the lowest in classification winning percentage will be suggested to move down.

3. If a team from 1A is interested in moving up to 2A, the team with the third lowest winning percentage would be suggested to move down.

4. No teams who have an above .500 winning percentage or have qualified for the playoffs will be considered to move down.

OK So we know Laurel will move up and 3 have to go down to get 2A from 21 to 18

AI, McKean, Brandywine, Delcastle, Conrad. All could go down but I think it will be AI, McKean, Brandywine

So my predict here will be

2AD1
DMA
Howard
Concord
Delcastle
Conrad
Mt Pleasant

2AD2
Archmere
Friends
Tower Hill
Caravel
Red Lion
Newark

2AD3
Delmar
Woodbridge
Lake
Laurel
Tech
Milford

shuffled a couple D1 and D2 teams for competitive balance.

 

[BackinBlack86]

1A 16 Teams 2 div of 8

prediction

1AD1
*St E's
Charter
Glasgow
Christiana
Dickinson
AI
McKean
Brandywine

1AD2
*Odessa
IR
Seaford
Poly
FSMA
ECS@DSU
St Andrews
Tatnall

* Really St E's and Odessa should also go up and Conrad and Delcastle also down

Odessa because they will have a full class next year and over 1000 enrollment with approx 100 players out for football

Note on Delcastle though is if you look at their 0-8 record this year they really played some teams closely and competitive. Tech 20-28, DMA 20-29, Newark 22-26, McKean 27-29

 

[BackinBlack86]

Now we just have to wait until the 2022 enrollments get posted (late Nov early Dec).. Then we can come back and tweak things.. lol

 

[Huskerman7]

1A 16 Teams 2 div of 8

prediction

1AD1
*St E's
Charter
Glasgow
Christiana
Dickinson
AI
McKean
Brandywine

1AD2
*Odessa
IR
Seaford
Poly
FSMA
ECS_DSU
St Andrews
Tatnall

* Really St E's and Odessa should also go up and Conrad and Delcastle also down

Odessa because they will have a full class next year and over 1000 enrollment with approx 100 players out for football

Note on Delcastle though is if you look at their 0-8 record this year they really played some teams closely and competitive. Tech 20-28, DMA 20-29, Newark 22-26, McKean 27-29

With 200 students, can’t imagine St.E would go up.

 

[BackinBlack86]

With 200 students, can’t imagine St.E would go up.

enrollment really doesn't mean as much for private schools. At least between 1A and 2A. St E's shows 250, Red Lion has 186. Caravel 362, Tower Hill 326. St E's can certainly compete in 2A..IMHO. Now do I think they will ask to go up? probably not. It's too much fun blowing out all the 1A teams

StE's has outscored their 1A opponents 754-129 the last 2 years that's an average score of 42-8

 

[Huskerman7]

I respect your opinion, but I’ll disagree. I don’t believe St.E would be competitive in 2A. They’ve got a once in a decade talent right now. When he leaves….

 

[BackinBlack86]

I respect your opinion, but I’ll disagree. I don’t believe St.E would be competitive in 2A. They’ve got a once in a decade talent right now. When he leaves….

Not sure about once in a decade talent. Yeah he is a very good back but he is putting these numbers up vs some of the worst teams in the country. So I guess we don't know how good he really is. One thing is for sure if they stay in 1A the good players won't come there. So I guess it becomes a self fulfilling prophecy at that point.

 

[SmyrnaOnTop]

I think Howard goes up before St Marks

 

[Seerock9223]

Not getting why st E's gets a break. I thought it was on competition results ffr

 

[Seerock9223]

Sorry, coordination is off tonight. I was saying sst

 

[Seerock9223]

One last time. Realignment was based off past success and the new realignment will be based on the same plus enrollment. St E's is lighting it up now, so that has to be part of the formula, right?

 

[84rider]

It has already been decided on what they are doing in terms of class and division numbers. Let's just stick with that for this thread please. CR has huge enrollment numbers they need to fix things internally not be sent down a level.

💯 agree

 

[Huskerman7]

Not sure about once in a decade talent. Yeah he is a very good back but he is putting these numbers up vs some of the worst teams in the country. So I guess we don't know how good he really is. One thing is for sure if they stay in 1A the good players won't come there. So I guess it becomes a self fulfilling prophecy at that point.

For St.E, he’s a once a decade talent. Take him away, and most likely they drift back toward the pack. And again, 200 total students (taken from St.E high school website enrollment #s.)

 

[BackinBlack86]

For St.E, he’s a once a decade talent. Take him away, and most likely they drift back toward the pack. And again, 200 total students (taken from St.E high school website enrollment #s.)

You take any 1A or 2A teams best player away they fall back to the pack. Bottom line is they are dominating 1A (sans Laurel who is a 2A team) and would beat half the teams in 2A IMO. I see they have 200 on that page on their website but who knows when that was updated last or if they are just saying 200 to make their teacher to student ratio look better or whatever. 250 is the official DIAA number for 2020 so unless they lost 50 students between then and their 2022 enrollment that is what they go by, Even so Red Lion's DIAA 2020 enrollment is 186 should they be dropped to 1A? If RLCA can compete in 2A with 186 certainly St E's can. again just my opinion. The second or third best team in the country is a inner city Catholic school that only has 210 students. It's different for private schools.. just saying

https://doewebmaster.wpenginepowered.com/diaa/wp-content/uploads/sites/2/2022/01/DIAA-Enrollment-September-30-2020-1-22-21.pdf

 

[BackinBlack86]

One last time. Realignment was based off past success and the new realignment will be based on the same plus enrollment. St E's is lighting it up now, so that has to be part of the formula, right?

Enrollment is only being used for 3A this go round (2023). There is no unilateral formula set going forward to 2025 as of yet. For moving up to 2A from 1A for 2023 they are going with teams requesting to move up. Laurel has and will. No other team will be forced up they would have to request it. It was my "opinion" St E and Odessa should go up so 5 bad teams could come down instead of 3


2A In order to determine which teams from 2A will move down to 1A the following steps will be taken

1. Combining the final regular season records from 2021 and 2022 the teams with the lowest in classification winning percentage will be identified.

2. The two teams with the lowest in classification winning percentage will be suggested to move down.

3. If a team from 1A is interested in moving up to 2A, the team with the third lowest winning percentage would be suggested to move down.

4. No teams who have an above .500 winning percentage or have qualified for the playoffs will be considered to move down.

1A In order to determine any teams from 1A who want to move up to 2A the following steps will be taken

1. 1A teams wanting to move up a classification will need to complete the application for reclassification

2. If more than one team is interested in moving up we will evaluate the teams and movement of classes to find the best fit

 

[BackinBlack86]

You take any 1A or 2A teams best player away they fall back to the back. Bottom line is they are dominating 1A (sans Laurel who is a 2A team) and would beat half the teams in 2A IMO. I see they have 200 on that page on their website but who knows when that was updated last or if they are just saying 200 to make their teacher to student ratio look better or whatever. 250 is the official DIAA number for 2020 so unless they lost 50 students between then and their 2022 enrollment that is what they go by, Even so Red Lion's DIAA 2020 enrollment is 186 should they be dropped to 1A? If RLCA can compete in 2A with 186 certainly St E's can. again just my opinion. The second or third best team in the country is a inner city Catholic school that only has 210 students. It's different for private schools.. just saying

https://doewebmaster.wpenginepowered.com/diaa/wp-content/uploads/sites/2/2022/01/DIAA-Enrollment-September-30-2020-1-22-21.pdf

An interesting look at the 2020 numbers, Under the old alignment (1-18 would be D1). Newark would have gone back up to D1 and Concord down to D2 for 2021-2022.

Kind of shows you how much the new system helps.

Teams that would be competing D1 (3A)

Delcastle
Charter
Tech
Poly
Milford
Mt Pleasant
Newark

Seems kinds crazy now..lol

 

[BackinBlack86]

I think Howard goes up before St Marks

Howard does not want to go up so if they are not in the top half in enrollment they can't be made to. I believe St Marks realizes moving to 3A would be good for their football program. I believe they would love to get back to where they were and compete with the Sallies. I think they would realize being in 3A would help them bring in more and better players to the program. Remember this would only be for football and all the other sports would still compete in D2. So St Marks could ask to go or at least raise their hand if DIAA asks for a volunteer to take the spot. JMHO

If not then that is when DIAA will select a program that is above the half way cut line of the Howard rule.

 

[SmyrnaOnTop]

Howard does not want to go up so if they are not in the top half in enrollment they can't be made to. I believe St Marks realizes moving to 3A would be good for their football program. I believe they would love to get back to where they were and compete with the Sallies. I think they would realize being in 3A would help them bring in more and better players to the program. Remember this would only be for football and all the other sports would still compete in D2. So St Marks could ask to go or at least raise their hand if DIAA asks for a volunteer to take the spot. JMHO

If not then that is when DIAA will select a program that is above the half way cut line of the Howard rule.

St Marks would struggle in 3a they would be where Dover/Appo is right now. I think this year they would be the most competitive in 3a. After this year I don’t see how good they would be. Howard I could see actually competing for a consistent amount of time in 3a. That’s just my opinion though. Isn’t a 5 year period considered in the equation too?

 

[DDBasketballCoach]

DMA TO D3! THEY CAN PLAY AND BEAT ANYONE BY ANY MEANS NECESSARY!!!

 

[Notursmine]

DMA TO D3! THEY CAN PLAY AND BEAT ANYONE BY ANY MEANS NECESSARY!!!

Now that's funny!

 

[BackinBlack86]

St Marks would struggle in 3a they would be where Dover/Appo is right now. I think this year they would be the most competitive in 3a. After this year I don’t see how good they would be. Howard I could see actually competing for a consistent amount of time in 3a. That’s just my opinion though. Isn’t a 5 year period considered in the equation too?

How is being where Dover/Appo is right now struggling? CR is struggling. Dover and Appo are just fine. My point is a school like St Marks can further build their football program by virtue of being in 3A. Who knows how good they will be after this year but I know their chances of attracting more and better players to the program are better if they play in 3A.

No one who moves up a class will ever be a threat to win the championship initially but they can be competitive enough to build a team that could in the future. If the litmus test is a team should only move up if they can compete with the top 2 or 3 teams in the class then no one will ever move up and this whole exercise is pointless. Might as well just save all the drama and go back to enrollment numbers like everyone else.

Currently there is no formula used to place teams. I think they used one to make the original suggestions and tweaked off it. This go round they are just using the plans posted. No formula or 5 year thing. Only using the last 2 years records under the new realignment.

My hope is after they make the adjustments for 2023 then they do come up with a formula, agree on it and stick to it. If they don't debating all this every 2 years will never work longtime. DIAA will just say it's not worth the drama and just split by enrollment numbers. Maybe keep the 3 Classes and do it.

 

[Woody_Wood]

St Marks would struggle in 3a they would be where Dover/Appo is right now. I think this year they would be the most competitive in 3a. After this year I don’t see how good they would be. Howard I could see actually competing for a consistent amount of time in 3a. That’s just my opinion though. Isn’t a 5 year period considered in the equation too?

St Mark's should have a decent team next year. Looking at their roster they are losing only 4 or 5 starting seniors next year. They are bringing back fourr linemen, their quarterback, a running back, most of their receivers and the tight end. They are also bringing back most of the defense. In addition, this past year they brought in a bunch of transfers. Based on their current record they will probably bring in more transfers this upcoming year. So they should be competitive in 2A again the next two years. But if they move up that will all change.

As SOT has stated I believe they wouldn't be competitive in 3A. Yes, they beat Appo but that was after having an additional week of practice. If they play today I think that game ends differently. But who knows for sure.

As for their enrollment I spoke to a St Mark's parent last night. The school numbers are closer to 800 rather than 900 so they shouldn't be forced to move up.

Bib, I'm sure you have forgotten more than I know about Delaware football so I respect your opinion but I can't see St Mark's moving up. But of course there are other factors involved. So only time will tell.

 

[BackinBlack86]

also from the Director of Admissions from St Marks

Over the past three years, Saint Mark's has developed into one of the fastest growing Catholic schools in the country. Bucking national trends in Catholic education, I am pleased to report enrollment is skyrocketing! To-date, enrollment at Saint Mark's High School has increased more than 50% overall since 2019.


So from 600 more than 50% puts them over 900. I am guessing right around a 1000 or a tad over for 2022

 

[Notursmine]

My only thought about any school moving up regardless of division. DIAA needs to make the decision sooner than later. Stepping up - biggest difference in my opinion, size of the line. Quality 2A programs have skill guys, that can compete @ 3A. Its the line, and depth at the line.

 

[connorr11]

My only thought about any school moving up regardless of division. DIAA needs to make the decision sooner than later. Stepping up - biggest difference in my opinion, size of the line. Quality 2A programs have skill guys, that can compete @ 3A. Its the line, and depth at the line.

couldn’t agree more with this, it isn’t the skills it is the line for sure

 

[DoItWrite]

also from the Director of Admissions from St Marks

Over the past three years, Saint Mark's has developed into one of the fastest growing Catholic schools in the country. Bucking national trends in Catholic education, I am pleased to report enrollment is skyrocketing! To-date, enrollment at Saint Mark's High School has increased more than 50% overall since 2019.


So from 600 more than 50% puts them over 900. I am guessing right around a 1000 or a tad over for 2022

Three years ago, St. Mark's had about 450 students, not 600. They are around 725 this year. This year's senior class is by far the smallest in the school. Next year, they will be at 800-850 if they keep up current enrollment trends.

 

[BackinBlack86]

Bib, I'm sure you have forgotten more than I know about Delaware football

I wouldn't say that. I have only been in Delaware since 2010. Before that I didn't even know Delaware played football and certainly couldn't name a team ..lol Well that is a lie I knew of Middletown from coming up here to play MOT in rec but I wasn't paying attention to HS football in those days. I probably know more about what's going on outside of DE in High School football than most though but not all

 

[BackinBlack86]

Three years ago, St. Mark's had about 450 students, not 600. They are around 725 this year. This year's senior class is by far the smallest in the school. Next year, they will be at 800-850 if they keep up current enrollment trends.

didn't realize it was that big of a jump from 2019 to what DIAA has posted (600) for the 2022 numbers. Figured 2019 was closer to 600. No big deal.. but someone has to move up and no one is going to want to.. which is going to be a problem with the new setup

 

[Uncle Bumfuzzled]

Gents, this has been a stimulating conversation. You guys get an A in Journalism 101.