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Predicted final playoff pairings (with point explanation)

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steviking1414

Feb 20, 2017
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Here are the match-ups based on how I predict things finishing over the end of this week. The biggest game that will change projections is Sanford vs Hodgson. This is obviously a projection and while I'm spot on 75-80% of the time (I'm being generous) it's not always perfect. Anyway, here goes nothing:

#9 St. George's (16-4) vs. #24 Archmere (10-10)

St. George's: 32 base points, plus bonus 13 points for the following: RLC (1) St. Joe Prep (PA) (1) Glasgow (1) AI (1) WP (1) Frankford (PA) (1) Math Civics (PA) (1) Woodbridge (2) Howard (1) Hodgson (2) Appo (1) Total Index: 2.25

Archmere (10-10) this last spot is going to go to the Diamond State Conference champion. A win by Archmere over DMA on Tuesday would give this to the Auks. A DMA win would leave DMA, Archmere and NCS all with conferences records of 5-3. Not sure how they break their tiebreaker, but not sure it matters as none of those teams will upset St. George's. I will predict the cleanest scenario, which is an Archmere win on Tuesday for now.

Winner gets #8 Glasgow (14-6 -- assumes final 2 wins over Caravel and Christiana)
28 base points plus 18 bonus points for the following: Sanford (1) Tri-State Christian (MD) (2) RLC (1) Mount (2) St. George's (2) Hodgson (2) WP (1) Appo (1) Newark (2) Howard (1) Woodbridge (2) Caravel (1) Total Index: 2.30

#16 A.I. DuPont (11-9) vs. #17 Cape Henlopen (14-6)

A.I.: 22 base points plus 19 bonus points for the following: Tatnall (1) St. E (1) Friends (1) Appo (1) CR (1) St. Mark's (2) St. George's (2) Hodgson (2) Newark (2) WP (1) Howard (1) Mount (2) Smyrna-forfeit (2). It is unclear whether this forfeit vs. Smyrna is removed from their schedule or counted as a loss, but either way, it is 2 points for them and doesn't change their index much. Total Index 2.05 -- tiebreaker given to #16 AI since higher SOS than #17 Cape or #18 St. Mark's

Cape: 28 base points plus 13 bonus points: CR (1) Milford (1) Mount (2) Eleanor Roosevelt (MD) (2) Smyrna (2) LF (1) CR (1) IR (1) Smyrna (2) Total Index 2.05 -- lower SOS than #16 AI but higher than #18 St. Mark's

Winner gets #1 MP (18-2)
36 base points plus 17 bonus for the following: Tatnall (1) Glasgow (1) Cape (1) St. Michael's (Canada) (1) Appo (1) Howard (1) Friends (1) Hazleton Area (PA) (2) Hodgson (2) Newark (2) Sallies (2) WP (1) AI (1) Total Index 2.55

#12 Milford (12-8) vs. #21 Red Lion (12-8)

Milford: 24 base points plus 19 bonus points for the following: Woodbridge (2) Cape (1) LF (1) Smyrna (2) IR (1) Laurel (1) St. Mark's (2) Woodbridge (2) St. TM (2) LF (1) IR (1) CR (1) Laurel (1) Appo (1) Total Index 2.15 -- tiebreaker given to #11 Sanford based on higher SOS

RLC: 24 base points plus 14 bonus points for the following: Glasgow (1) LF (1) St. George's (2) Lincoln Leadership (PA) (1) Upper Perkiomen (PA) (1) St. TM (2) Newark (2) Hodgson (2) Friends (1) Caravel (1) Total Index 1.90 -- tiebreaker given to #21 RLC due to higher SOS than LF or Laurel

Winner gets #5 St. E's (13-7)
26 base points plus 22 bonus points for the following: AI (1) Howard (1) Hodgson (2) LaSalle (PA) (1) Sallies (2) WP (1) Sanford (1) St. Mark's (2) MLK (PA) (2) Sallies (2) Caravel (1) St. Mark's (2) Smyrna (2) Friends (1) Appo (1) Total Index 2.40 -- split record with #4 Sallies, but less wins vs common opponents

#13 William Penn (11-9) vs. #20 Caravel (13-7)
WP: 22 base points plus 20 bonus points for the following: Sallies (2) Smyrna (2) Newark (2) St. E (1) Glasgow (1) Our Saviour Lutheran (NY) (1) St. George's (2) AI (1) Shawnee (NJ) (2) Mount (2) Appo (1) Howard (1) Hodgson (2) Total Index 2.10 -- tiebreaker given to #13 WP over #14 CR and #15 Hodgson due to higher SOS

Caravel: 26 base points plus 13 bonus points: Appo (1) NCS (1) St. TM (2) Tri-State Christian (MD) (2) Tatnall (1) St. Mark's (2) St. E (1) RLC (1) LF (1) Glasgow (1) Total Index 1.95

Winner gets #4 Sallies (15-5)
30 base points plus 18 bonus points: Howard (1) WP (1) Tatnall (1) Bergen Catholic (NJ) (2) St. E (1) Smyrna (2) St. Mark's (2) Sanford (1) St. E (1) Appo (1) Mount (2) St Mark's (2) Friends (1) Total Index 2.40 -- tiebreaker over #5 Sallies even though split record due to more wins over common opponents

#14 Caesar Rodney (14-6) vs. #19 Indian River (12-8)
CR: 28 base points plus 14 bonus points: Cape (1) LF (1) Smyrna (2) AI (1) Woodbridge (2) Cape (1) St. Mark's (2) Smyrna (2) Milford (1) IR (1) Total Index 2.1 tiebreaker given to #13 WP for higher SOS, but higher SOS than #15 Hodgson

IR: 24 base points plus 16 bonus points: Worcester Prep (MD) (1) Woodbridge (2) Milford (1) LF (1) Laurel (1) Woodbridge (2) Cape (1) Milford (1) CR (1) Salisbury School (MD) (1) LF (1) Laurel (1) St. TM (2) Total Index 2.00

Winner gets #3 Woodbridge (18-2)
36 base points plus 13 bonus points: Milford (1) IR (1) LF (1) Laurel (1) IR (1) CR (1) Milford (1) St. George's (2) Washington HS (MD) (1) Laurel (1) LF (1) Glasgow (1) Total Index 2.45 -- lower SOS than #2 St. Thomas More

#11 Sanford (12-8 -- assumes win over Hodgson) vs. #22 Lake Forest (12-8)
Sanford: 24 base points plus 19 bonus points: Glasgow (1) Blue Ridge (VA) (2) Archbishop Wood (2) Smyrna (2) Tatnall (1) Friends (1) St E (1) Hatboro Horsham (PA) (1) Sallies (2) Friends (1) Tatnall (1) Kennedy (NJ) (2) Hodgson (2) Total Index 2.15 -- higher SOS than #12 Milford

Lake: 24 base points plus 14 bonus points: Laurel (1) CR (1) Milford (1) RLC (1) Woodbridge (2) IR (1) Cape (1) Laurel (1) Milford (1) Woodbridge (2) Caravel (1) IR (1) Total Index 1.90 -- lower SOS than #21 RLC

Winner gets #6 Newark (17-3)
34 base points plus 13 bonus points due to the following: Frankford (PA) (1) Cheltenham (PA) (2) Chester (PA) (2) WP (1) RLC (1) AI (1) Glasgow (1) Mount (2) Appo (1) NCS (1) Total Index 2.35 -- tiebreaker given to #6 Newark over #7 Smyrna due to higher SOS

#10 Appo (13-7 -- assumes W over Milford) vs. #23 Middletown (8-12)
Appo: 26 base points plus 18 bonus points: Hodgson (2) AI (1) Caravel (1) Mount (2) NCS (1) Glasgow (1) Howard (1) Sallies (2) Newark (2) WP (1) St. George's (2) St E (1) Milford (1) Total Index 2.20

I have Laurel, Middletown, Friends, and Howard all with indexes of 1.80. I'm giving this to Middletown due to them having the toughest schedule, but I never seem to get this one right. Could be any of these 4.

Winner gets #7 Smyrna (18-2)
36 base points plus 11 bonus points: WP (1) CR (1) Milford (1) Sanford (1) Cape (1) Sallies (2) CR (1) St E (1) Cape (1) AI (1) Total Index 2.35 -- tiebreaker given to #6 Newark for higher SOS

#15 Hodgson (15-5 -- assumes L to Sanford) vs. #18 St. Mark's (15-5)

Hodgson: 30 base points, plus bonus 12 points for the following: Appo (1) St. E (1) Glasgow (1) AI (1) RLC (1) Mount (2) St. George's (2) Howard (1) WP (1) Sanford (1) Total Index 2.10 -- lower SOS than #13 WP or #14 CR

St. Mark's: 30 base points plus 11 bonus points: Burlington City (NJ) (1) AI (1) Milford (1) St E (1) Sallies (2) Caravel (1) CR (1) St E (1) Sallies (2) Total Index 2.05 -- lowest SOS between #16 AI and #17 Cape

Winner gets #2 St. Thomas More (17-3)
34 base points plus 15 bonus points: St. Benedict's (NJ) (2) Sterling HS (NJ) (1) Woodrow Wilson (DC) (2) Archbishop Ryan (PA) (2) Coatesville (PA) (2) RLC (1) Caravel (1) Wildwood Catholic (NJ) (1) Penn Wood (PA) (1) Milford (1) IR (1) Total Index 2.45 -- tiebreak given over #3 Woodbridge due to higher SOS
 
steviking1414, thanks for all your hard work, why the new screen name? must of lost your old password lol, excellent work as always steviking14
 
steviking1414 said:
Here are the match-ups based on how I predict things finishing over the end of this week. The biggest game that will change projections is Sanford vs Hodgson. This is obviously a projection and while I'm spot on 75-80% of the time (I'm being generous) it's not always perfect. Anyway, here goes nothing:

#9 St. George's (16-4) vs. #24 Archmere (10-10)

St. George's: 32 base points, plus bonus 13 points for the following: RLC (1) St. Joe Prep (PA) (1) Glasgow (1) AI (1) WP (1) Frankford (PA) (1) Math Civics (PA) (1) Woodbridge (2) Howard (1) Hodgson (2) Appo (1) Total Index: 2.25

Archmere (10-10) this last spot is going to go to the Diamond State Conference champion. A win by Archmere over DMA on Tuesday would give this to the Auks. A DMA win would leave DMA, Archmere and NCS all with conferences records of 5-3. Not sure how they break their tiebreaker, but not sure it matters as none of those teams will upset St. George's. I will predict the cleanest scenario, which is an Archmere win on Tuesday for now.

Winner gets #8 Glasgow (14-6 -- assumes final 2 wins over Caravel and Christiana)
28 base points plus 18 bonus points for the following: Sanford (1) Tri-State Christian (MD) (2) RLC (1) Mount (2) St. George's (2) Hodgson (2) WP (1) Appo (1) Newark (2) Howard (1) Woodbridge (2) Caravel (1) Total Index: 2.30

#16 A.I. DuPont (11-9) vs. #17 Cape Henlopen (14-6)

A.I.: 22 base points plus 19 bonus points for the following: Tatnall (1) St. E (1) Friends (1) Appo (1) CR (1) St. Mark's (2) St. George's (2) Hodgson (2) Newark (2) WP (1) Howard (1) Mount (2) Smyrna-forfeit (2). It is unclear whether this forfeit vs. Smyrna is removed from their schedule or counted as a loss, but either way, it is 2 points for them and doesn't change their index much. Total Index 2.05 -- tiebreaker given to #16 AI since higher SOS than #17 Cape or #18 St. Mark's

Cape: 28 base points plus 13 bonus points: CR (1) Milford (1) Mount (2) Eleanor Roosevelt (MD) (2) Smyrna (2) LF (1) CR (1) IR (1) Smyrna (2) Total Index 2.05 -- lower SOS than #16 AI but higher than #18 St. Mark's

Winner gets #1 MP (18-2)
36 base points plus 17 bonus for the following: Tatnall (1) Glasgow (1) Cape (1) St. Michael's (Canada) (1) Appo (1) Howard (1) Friends (1) Hazleton Area (PA) (2) Hodgson (2) Newark (2) Sallies (2) WP (1) AI (1) Total Index 2.55

#12 Milford (12-8) vs. #21 Red Lion (12-8)

Milford: 24 base points plus 19 bonus points for the following: Woodbridge (2) Cape (1) LF (1) Smyrna (2) IR (1) Laurel (1) St. Mark's (2) Woodbridge (2) St. TM (2) LF (1) IR (1) CR (1) Laurel (1) Appo (1) Total Index 2.15 -- tiebreaker given to #11 Sanford based on higher SOS

RLC: 24 base points plus 14 bonus points for the following: Glasgow (1) LF (1) St. George's (2) Lincoln Leadership (PA) (1) Upper Perkiomen (PA) (1) St. TM (2) Newark (2) Hodgson (2) Friends (1) Caravel (1) Total Index 1.90 -- tiebreaker given to #21 RLC due to higher SOS than LF or Laurel

Winner gets #5 St. E's (13-7)
26 base points plus 22 bonus points for the following: AI (1) Howard (1) Hodgson (2) LaSalle (PA) (1) Sallies (2) WP (1) Sanford (1) St. Mark's (2) MLK (PA) (2) Sallies (2) Caravel (1) St. Mark's (2) Smyrna (2) Friends (1) Appo (1) Total Index 2.40 -- split record with #4 Sallies, but less wins vs common opponents

#13 William Penn (11-9) vs. #20 Caravel (13-7)
WP: 22 base points plus 20 bonus points for the following: Sallies (2) Smyrna (2) Newark (2) St. E (1) Glasgow (1) Our Saviour Lutheran (NY) (1) St. George's (2) AI (1) Shawnee (NJ) (2) Mount (2) Appo (1) Howard (1) Hodgson (2) Total Index 2.10 -- tiebreaker given to #13 WP over #14 CR and #15 Hodgson due to higher SOS

Caravel: 26 base points plus 13 bonus points: Appo (1) NCS (1) St. TM (2) Tri-State Christian (MD) (2) Tatnall (1) St. Mark's (2) St. E (1) RLC (1) LF (1) Glasgow (1) Total Index 1.95

Winner gets #4 Sallies (15-5)
30 base points plus 18 bonus points: Howard (1) WP (1) Tatnall (1) Bergen Catholic (NJ) (2) St. E (1) Smyrna (2) St. Mark's (2) Sanford (1) St. E (1) Appo (1) Mount (2) St Mark's (2) Friends (1) Total Index 2.40 -- tiebreaker over #5 Sallies even though split record due to more wins over common opponents

#14 Caesar Rodney (14-6) vs. #19 Indian River (12-8)
CR: 28 base points plus 14 bonus points: Cape (1) LF (1) Smyrna (2) AI (1) Woodbridge (2) Cape (1) St. Mark's (2) Smyrna (2) Milford (1) IR (1) Total Index 2.1 tiebreaker given to #13 WP for higher SOS, but higher SOS than #15 Hodgson

IR: 24 base points plus 16 bonus points: Worcester Prep (MD) (1) Woodbridge (2) Milford (1) LF (1) Laurel (1) Woodbridge (2) Cape (1) Milford (1) CR (1) Salisbury School (MD) (1) LF (1) Laurel (1) St. TM (2) Total Index 2.00

Winner gets #3 Woodbridge (18-2)
36 base points plus 13 bonus points: Milford (1) IR (1) LF (1) Laurel (1) IR (1) CR (1) Milford (1) St. George's (2) Washington HS (MD) (1) Laurel (1) LF (1) Glasgow (1) Total Index 2.45 -- lower SOS than #2 St. Thomas More

#11 Sanford (12-8 -- assumes win over Hodgson) vs. #22 Lake Forest (12-8)
Sanford: 24 base points plus 19 bonus points: Glasgow (1) Blue Ridge (VA) (2) Archbishop Wood (2) Smyrna (2) Tatnall (1) Friends (1) St E (1) Hatboro Horsham (PA) (1) Sallies (2) Friends (1) Tatnall (1) Kennedy (NJ) (2) Hodgson (2) Total Index 2.15 -- higher SOS than #12 Milford

Lake: 24 base points plus 14 bonus points: Laurel (1) CR (1) Milford (1) RLC (1) Woodbridge (2) IR (1) Cape (1) Laurel (1) Milford (1) Woodbridge (2) Caravel (1) IR (1) Total Index 1.90 -- lower SOS than #21 RLC

Winner gets #6 Newark (17-3)
34 base points plus 13 bonus points due to the following: Frankford (PA) (1) Cheltenham (PA) (2) Chester (PA) (2) WP (1) RLC (1) AI (1) Glasgow (1) Mount (2) Appo (1) NCS (1) Total Index 2.35 -- tiebreaker given to #6 Newark over #7 Smyrna due to higher SOS

#10 Appo (13-7 -- assumes W over Milford) vs. #23 Middletown (8-12)
Appo: 26 base points plus 18 bonus points: Hodgson (2) AI (1) Caravel (1) Mount (2) NCS (1) Glasgow (1) Howard (1) Sallies (2) Newark (2) WP (1) St. George's (2) St E (1) Milford (1) Total Index 2.20

I have Laurel, Middletown, Friends, and Howard all with indexes of 1.80. I'm giving this to Middletown due to them having the toughest schedule, but I never seem to get this one right. Could be any of these 4.

Winner gets #7 Smyrna (18-2)
36 base points plus 11 bonus points: WP (1) CR (1) Milford (1) Sanford (1) Cape (1) Sallies (2) CR (1) St E (1) Cape (1) AI (1) Total Index 2.35 -- tiebreaker given to #6 Newark for higher SOS

#15 Hodgson (15-5 -- assumes L to Sanford) vs. #18 St. Mark's (15-5)

Hodgson: 30 base points, plus bonus 12 points for the following: Appo (1) St. E (1) Glasgow (1) AI (1) RLC (1) Mount (2) St. George's (2) Howard (1) WP (1) Sanford (1) Total Index 2.10 -- lower SOS than #13 WP or #14 CR

St. Mark's: 30 base points plus 11 bonus points: Burlington City (NJ) (1) AI (1) Milford (1) St E (1) Sallies (2) Caravel (1) CR (1) St E (1) Sallies (2) Total Index 2.05 -- lowest SOS between #16 AI and #17 Cape

Winner gets #2 St. Thomas More (17-3)
34 base points plus 15 bonus points: St. Benedict's (NJ) (2) Sterling HS (NJ) (1) Woodrow Wilson (DC) (2) Archbishop Ryan (PA) (2) Coatesville (PA) (2) RLC (1) Caravel (1) Wildwood Catholic (NJ) (1) Penn Wood (PA) (1) Milford (1) IR (1) Total Index 2.45 -- tiebreak given over #3 Woodbridge due to higher SOS
Click to expand...
St. Thomas Moore number #1. Just beat Linedwold (N.J.)... Got 2 pionts for win .. Gives them 51 total pionts..
2.55 .. Better SOS than Mount ...
 
hoopsdownstate said:
St. Thomas Moore number #1. Just beat Linedwold (N.J.)... Got 2 pionts for win .. Gives them 51 total pionts..
2.55 .. Better SOS than Mount ...
Click to expand...
No, I assumed St. Thomas would beat Lindenwold and Indian River to finish 17-3...this is where the 34 base points came from. Mount has #1 wrapped up.
 
hoopsdownstate said:
St. Thomas Moore number #1. Just beat Linedwold (N.J.)... Got 2 pionts for win .. Gives them 51 total pionts..
2.55 .. Better SOS than Mount ...
Click to expand...

St. Thomas More's win over a team under .501 only gets them 2 total points so it brings there point index down considering that their index was already over 2.00, so this game did them no good at all.
 
J12 said:
St. Thomas More's win over a team under .501 only gets them 2 total points so it brings there point index down considering that their index was already over 2.00, so this game did them no good at all.
Click to expand...
Oh ok.. Forgot about IR... My fault
 
J12 said:
St. Thomas More's win over a team under .501 only gets them 2 total points so it brings there point index down considering that their index was already over 2.00, so this game did them no good at all.
Click to expand...

Being the 1 seed this year isn't that great a thing, cod see Sanford and St. George's before the final 4
 
steviking1414 said:
my thought is everyone below AI would move up one spot and now that leaves two spots available for the 4 bubble teams I mentioned (Middletown, Howard, Friends, Laurel)
Click to expand...

Got a chance to see Howard at Delcastle showcase yesterday. They have a nice squad. It would be a shame if they got shut out. If they get in, look out.
 
steviking - is there any way you can recalculate to get that stinking 8-12 team out? Thats' an embarrassment.
 
I don't know exactly what C means to the Auks

1. Conference/Flight/Division Champions’ automatic berths will be determined by the following qualifying criteria:
a. A Conference/Flight/Division must consist of five participating schools to receive an automatic berth. If a Conference/Flight/Division has fewer than five participating teams, the teams are still eligible for at-large berths.)
b. The Conference/Flight/Division Champion must possess a .500 winning percentage record or better.
c. The Conference/Flight/Division Champion must be in the top 50% of all eligible teams in the state tournament field
 
Newark beat a northeast prep team at widener univ according to their schedule but don't see points for them on your totals steviking
 
ShowTalent40 said:
http://www.delawareonline.com/story...otes-boys-wont-play-diaa-tournament/98227220/
Click to expand...

A.I. boys won't play in DIAA tournament

A.I. du Pont will not participate in the upcoming DIAA Boys Basketball Tournament.

A.I. du Pont High principal Kevin Palladinetti made the decision on Tuesday, based on an incident after the team’s 58-46 loss at Delaware Military Academy last Thursday.

“We are going to forego any remaining basketball games, including the playoffs,” Palladinetti said.

School was not in session on Friday or Monday, so Tuesday was the first opportunity Palladinetti had to talk with the team. He gathered the players, head coach Tom Tabb and his staff, athletic director Mark Alley and other school administrators for a morning meeting.

“My focus was on incidents or allegations of things that transpired after the game, involving our team,” Palladinetti said. “It did not have anything to do with the DMA team at all. When the clock hit zero, the game was over. There were some things being reported to me that I needed to follow up on.”

An A.I. player was ejected with about 40 seconds left in the game. That’s when Palladinetti said Tabb decided to forego the customary postgame handshake line involving players from both teams.

“He informed the team that there was not going to be a handshake line, that he would shake the hand of the [DMA] coach and they would then walk to the locker room together,” Palladinetti said. “Essentially, that was how he intended to quell any emotions from boiling over in the handshake line. I commend Mr. Tabb for having the foresight to put a plan like that in place.

“Unfortunately, before he could even get to the handshake with the coaches from DMA, our players acted in a way that I don’t support. It violates our standards of sportsmanship and conduct.”

On Friday, the decision was made to forfeit Tuesday’s regular-season finale against No. 1-ranked Smyrna. The Tigers (11-9) were still likely to qualify for the 24-team state tournament, but their season is now finished.

“I know it’s not the popular decision,” Palladinetti said. “I know it is very unpopular with the players and with their parents, and rightfully so. It’s a disappointing way to end the season. But it’s something that I am comfortable with after consulting with the coaching staff and the assistant principal.”
 
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8yaz said:
steviking - is there any way you can recalculate to get that stinking 8-12 team out? Thats' an embarrassment.
Click to expand...

Make that a "7-13" team...Polytech beat Middletown last night so yeah Middletown is probably out.
 
I'm predicting that Connor Rufo, his big arms, and the rest of the Sanford Warriors will make a run in the tournament.
 
debballguy said:
I'm predicting that Connor Rufo, his big arms, and the rest of the Sanford Warriors will make a run in the tournament.
Click to expand...
Those arms- combined with Stan waterman's smoldering good looks and masterful basketball mind- should be absolutely unstoppable come tournament time
 
New match-up predictions with final records in:
#16 Cape (14-6) vs #17 Caravel (14-6) -- winner gets #1 Mount (18-2)

#9 Glasgow (13-7) vs #24 Newark Charter (13-7) - get in ahead of Auks due to 1.55 index vs 1.50 index
Winner gets #8 St. George's (16-4)

#12 Milford (12-8) vs #21 Lake Forest (12-8) -- winner gets #5 St. E's (13-7)

#13 William Penn (11-9) vs #20 Red Lion (12-8) -- winner gets #4 Sallies (15-5)

#14 CR (14-6) vs #19 Indian River (12-8) -- winner gets #3 Woodbridge (18-2)

#11 Sanford vs #22 Friends (12-8) -- winner gets #6 Newark (17-3)

#10 Appo (13-7) vs #23 Laurel (12-8) -- winner gets #7 Smyrna (18-2)

#15 Hodgson (15-5) vs #18 St. Mark's (15-5) -- winner gets #2 St. Thomas More

It's worth noting that #22 Friends #23 Laurel and #25 Howard all have the same index. Their SOS are all within .1 of each other, with Laurel and Howard having multiple out of state opponents. One of these 3 are not getting in, and I assumed Howard for now, but could easily be one of the others depending on final records.
 
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