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Seedings

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DELax100

Getting reps on JV
May 8, 2008
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Still a number of key games left to finalize the top seeds -

Despite Sallies dominance in DE, there is a very real possibility Tower Hill will end up with #1 seed if they beat Cape this week. Sallies could end up with no bonus points for playing PA powerhouses Malvern and Penn Charter.

The Top four seeds look to be some mix of Tower, Sallies, Archmere and CR. Cape needs to beat both Tower and CR this week to break into that top four.

Looks like Cape / Friends would be in the 5/6 spots.
 
in the lower seeds there is going to be a bit of changes as the last few games are played this week i believe

DMA lost an OT game to ai which will not help them get a decent seed luckily they have two easy wins with mckean and mount this week

appo seems to be way out with losses to wilmington charter, middletown and probably ai on tuedsday

ai may take appo and get a playoff bid with wins over appo and mtown this week

polytech could drop with a loss to sussex tech or red lion which seems unlikely but is possible

dover would drop with a loss to appo

st marks needs a win over wilmington charter to stay above them in seeding and vice versa charter needs a win over st marks to get a higher seed with an almost identical playoff rating
 
and somehow st e's is still in the mix with wins over no one good... if they get in thats a blowout in the first round in my opinion
 
Don't know how StE is still in. I've done the math and they are long out with the loss the other day.
 
Unless something crazy happens, Archmere looks locked in at #4. CR will be #1 or #2. Sallies does not have enough bonus points to be #1 - they will be 2 or 3. A Tower/CR tie in rating, which could happen if they beat Cape, will come down to cumulative record of opponents, which right now is very close.
 
Sorry - screwed that last post up.

If Tower beats Cape, it drops Cape to 10-5, which takes away a bonus point from everyone who played them.

So assuming no crazy upsets anywhere (not just in their own games), if Tower beats Cape, they will be #1. CR-Sallies will be 2/3 (depending on Sallies - Penn Charter game) and Archmere #4.

If Cape beats Tower, Then the #1 seed will depend on The Sallies - Penn Charter game. A Sallies win would make them #1 and CR #2. A Sallies loss makes them #2 and CR #1. Tower would be #3 and Archmere still at #4.

I don't see any scenario where these four teams are not the top 4 seeds.
 
One last note - there are 6 teams with 4 losses and games remaining:

Cape 10-4
Charter 10-4
Friends 9-4
AI duPont 10-4
DMA 10-4
Dover 9-4

With the exception of Cape, All should be favored to win their remaining games and end the season at 11-4, which means all of their opponents get 2 bonus points for playing them. here are the teams affected if they lose their 5th game -

Cape - Tower, Archmere, CR, Friends and Sallies all lose a point
Charter - CR, Tower and Friends lose 1
Friends - Tower loses 2, Archmere, Sallies,Cape lose 1
AI duPont - Archmere loses 1
DMA - Archmere, Tower lose 1
Dover - CR and Cape lose 1

So an upset for any of the non-Cape 4 loss teams will change the top seedings.
 
I am not a fan of doing a ranking "as of today records" because the games left to be played will change the final records and bonus points of all the teams. So, for the purposes of this list, I assumed the higher ranked team on laxpower will win all the games left to be played. If that happens, here is the list I came up with, showing expected rating points and games played:

1. Tower (43/15)
2. CR (42/15)
3. Sallies (41/15)
4. Archmere (40/15)
5 Friends (38/15)
6. Cape (37/15)
7. St Marks (37/15) - lost to Cape
8. Poly (36/15)
9. Charter (34/15)
10. Dover (33/15) - tiebreaker
11. AI duPont (33/15) - tiebreaker
12. DMA (33/15)
13. Brandywine (32/15)
14. St Andrews - (29/15) - common opponent tiebreaker
15. Appo - (29/15)
16. Middletown, Caravel, Sussex Tech (27/15) - not sure on tiebreaker

There will be upsets, and teams will move up and down a couple of spots, but this is the best estimate as of now -
This post was edited on 5/9 9:55 AM by DELax100
 
St Andrew in at 3-10 right now is crazy. I know they play some of the best but that is crazy
 
Looks like a strong possibility of a 5 way tie for the 8 seed. How would that get broken ? St. Andrews could be out or a 13/14 seed with a win. 4 wins gets you in, shows the formula has some merit as they must be a top 16 team.
 
I am a fan of the formula used for seeding the tournament - 95%+ of the time, it gets the right teams in, and in roughly the right position.

Having said that, the formula has two flaws, both on display this year.

The first flaw is it works best when everyone plays the same mix of teams, so that the final team records reflect results among playoff participants.
Sallies this year played 4 teams no one else in DE played. Each one of those teams would have had +.700 records if they played a DE schedule, so Sallies would get maximum bonus points for playing them. Instead, their records reflect much tougher league schedule, and as a result Sallies gets less bonus points than they "deserve".

The second flaw is the St. Andrews situation - When a team plays a schedule overloaded with top teams, they get an artificially high ranking just for showing up. Here is a ridiculous example to prove the point - say Tower and St Andrews played 15 times, and Tower won all but one game. At 14-1, Tower would have a 28/15 rating - 2 point for 14 wins and no bonus points for any opponent. St Andrews would be 32/15 - 2 points for their one win, and 30 bonus points because they played 15 games against a +.700 opponent.



These examples don't happen very often, and again, things are roughly right - Sallies will still get a very high seed, and St Andrews may very well be a Top 16 team.
This post was edited on 5/10 12:07 PM by DELax100
This post was edited on 5/10 12:12 PM by DELax100
 
I agree with DELax100 with the system. It definitely favors a team who plays a tough schedule and rightfully should. If St. Andrew wasn't in the independant conference they would play pretty well against other teams but since they play TH 2x and Friends 2x and Tatnall 2x they get those points. This year 8 points for just showing up to play TH and Friends and another 4 for beating Tatnall.
Again after the top teams in the state things get really messed up. At one point you had teams like St.E and Caravel and Delmar as potential tourney teams but than they get hurt because of who is on there schedule.

What if the state made everyone's schedule like the NFL does. Would that help things out or no?
 
I believe the system as a whole works...look at St. Andrews scores vs some of those teams that are at the "top" of delaware. They are a top 16 team no doubt! Yes...having 4 wins should not get you into the tourney...but who would you put in if you take them out honestly that isn't in?
 
I would like to see more of a premium placed om winning. For instance, instead of giving two points for a win how about 4 points for a win then still award the bonus points as they are awarded now. I am sorry but I think its rediculous that a team who may finish 4-11 gets into the playoffs I don't care who they play.As it stands now, you get the same amount of points for losing to a team say 16-1 if that team has a 701 winning percentage as you do when you actually win a game!
 
I noticed the earlier comment regarding DIAA involvement in the scheduling process. I can't think of anything worse for the development of quality lacrosse in Delaware.
 
How about we keep the point system/seeding system the way it is but add an additional qualifier of minimum wins or winning percentage to get into the tournament. Similar to the college bowl system that says you need to finish .500 to get into a bowl.
 
Why have a win percentage hurdle unless you're saying St. Andrews isn't one of the best 16 in the state. Playing Home and Home in that conference can be brutal, why penalize a team for a tough schedule. The teams they bump are Mtown or Caravel, you're not going to make a case that either of them is better than St. A are you? If they beat Friends it could possibly be a 12 seed for them and justification.
 
Seeding don't matter in Delaware...Blowouts round 1, Blowouts round 2, Final 4 the norm (Sallies, Tower Hill, Friends and a Down Stater Sallies by 12 in the Championship.
 
Quite frankly, I am not sure St Andrew's is one of the top 16 in the state.They beat Dover 7-5 and Tatnall 3-2 and were blown out by everybody else. By your logic Vanderbuilt must be one of the best college football teams in the county simply since they play in the SEC which is the best conferance and get blown away by everybody in the conferance!
 
My guess is that Saint Andrews "is" one of the best 16 in state. They played Worcester and Shipley pretty close. That being said I don't think a team with that bad of a record merits consideration for a championship tourney. But if the system says they get in then they get in. BTW, anyone go to the Sallies/Penn Charter game?
 
Here is what I have come up with and I'm sure I am wrong but you can tell me and I can fix it.

1. CR-2.8
2. Tower Hill-2.667
3. Sallies-2.533
4. Archmere-2.533
5. St. Marks-2.533
6. Friends-2.4
7. Cape-2.4
8. Charter-2.2
9-12 not sure the exact order (all have 2.2, but I think it will look like this)
A.I
Polytech
Dover
DMA
13. Brandywine- 2
14. St. Andrew-1.93
15. Sussex Tech-1.93
16. Appo-1.93





17. Middletown

18. Red Lion

19. St. Elizabeth

20. Delmar

21. McKean

22. Caravel
This post was edited on 5/11 10:34 AM by EBCendofthebenchclub
 
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