So with May right around the corner been thinking about who makes the tournament this year.
Obviously upsets happen but in general we can identify teams in a few groups, lets say we use the following 3:
Definitely In (>%90 chance) = 5 Teams
Salesianum
CR
Friends
DMA
Archmere
Probably In (>%75 chance) = 6 Teams
Cape - Could be in the top group but they are likely a 10 or so seed not as high as usual.
Appo - Seriously need to watch this they have a TOUGH stretch left could easily be 9-6 low seed.
Dover - Shuld get to 10 wins and make it in.
MOT Charter - 12 wins isnt out of the quesiton probably belongs in the confirmed group.
Milford - 12 wins is likely, maybe even 13, but strength of schedule makes them suspect and on the fence.
St Andrews - 12 wins isnt out of the quesiton probably belongs in the confirmed group.
Bubble Teams (%50/%50) = Leaves 5 teams out of this group to make it.
Caravel - 8 - 2 right now with 3 or 4 winnable games left. Should be in at 10-5 or 11-4.
Conrad - High bonus points should put them in if they win games expected down stretch.
Sanford - Bonus points should get them in @ 9-7.
Tatnall - Bonus points should get them in @ 9-7.
Poly Tech
STM
Smyrna
Newark Charter
Charter - If they get to 8 wins I think they are in, crazy hard scheduled will equal a ton of bonus points
STE
St Georges
Missing anyone?
Obviously upsets happen but in general we can identify teams in a few groups, lets say we use the following 3:
Definitely In (>%90 chance) = 5 Teams
Salesianum
CR
Friends
DMA
Archmere
Probably In (>%75 chance) = 6 Teams
Cape - Could be in the top group but they are likely a 10 or so seed not as high as usual.
Appo - Seriously need to watch this they have a TOUGH stretch left could easily be 9-6 low seed.
Dover - Shuld get to 10 wins and make it in.
MOT Charter - 12 wins isnt out of the quesiton probably belongs in the confirmed group.
Milford - 12 wins is likely, maybe even 13, but strength of schedule makes them suspect and on the fence.
St Andrews - 12 wins isnt out of the quesiton probably belongs in the confirmed group.
Bubble Teams (%50/%50) = Leaves 5 teams out of this group to make it.
Caravel - 8 - 2 right now with 3 or 4 winnable games left. Should be in at 10-5 or 11-4.
Conrad - High bonus points should put them in if they win games expected down stretch.
Sanford - Bonus points should get them in @ 9-7.
Tatnall - Bonus points should get them in @ 9-7.
Poly Tech
STM
Smyrna
Newark Charter
Charter - If they get to 8 wins I think they are in, crazy hard scheduled will equal a ton of bonus points
STE
St Georges
Missing anyone?