Too Early to Talk Playoffs?

[delawarenole]

So with May right around the corner been thinking about who makes the tournament this year.

Obviously upsets happen but in general we can identify teams in a few groups, lets say we use the following 3:

Definitely In (>%90 chance) = 5 Teams
Salesianum
CR
Friends
DMA
Archmere

Probably In (>%75 chance) = 6 Teams
Cape - Could be in the top group but they are likely a 10 or so seed not as high as usual.
Appo - Seriously need to watch this they have a TOUGH stretch left could easily be 9-6 low seed.
Dover - Shuld get to 10 wins and make it in.
MOT Charter - 12 wins isnt out of the quesiton probably belongs in the confirmed group.
Milford - 12 wins is likely, maybe even 13, but strength of schedule makes them suspect and on the fence.
St Andrews - 12 wins isnt out of the quesiton probably belongs in the confirmed group.

Bubble Teams (%50/%50) = Leaves 5 teams out of this group to make it.
Caravel - 8 - 2 right now with 3 or 4 winnable games left. Should be in at 10-5 or 11-4.
Conrad - High bonus points should put them in if they win games expected down stretch.
Sanford - Bonus points should get them in @ 9-7.
Tatnall - Bonus points should get them in @ 9-7.
Poly Tech
STM
Smyrna
Newark Charter
Charter - If they get to 8 wins I think they are in, crazy hard scheduled will equal a ton of bonus points
STE
St Georges


Missing anyone?

 

[84rider]

Tower Hill, not making the tourney is big, they’ve been a tourney staple for years

Cape with 1 instate loss to Sallies and 2 losses to Powerhouse schools is definitely in

Appo has Archmere, Cape, Dover & DMA left, they could possibly go 1-3 in that stretch. Other than CR all their losses are to out of state schools

 

[delawarenole]

Caravel won tonight so 9-2 with Red Lion so they will get to at least 10 wins. Decent bonus points as they have made the schedule a bit harder.

With STM, Dover and Smyrna as thier other 3 games another win and finishing 11-4 doesnt seem out of the question.

I would move them to probably in even at 10 wins.

 

[delawarenole]

Updated with recent games:

Definitely In (>%90 chance) = 6 Teams
Salesianum
CR (BH Champ)
Friends (Independent Champ)
DMA
Archmere (Diamond StateChamp)
Cape

Probably In (>%75 chance) = 6 Teams
Appo (Blue Hen Champ)
Dover
MOT Charter
Milford
St Andrews
Caravel

Bubble Teams (%50/%50) = Leaves 4 teams out of this group to make it.
Conrad
Sanford
Tatnall
Poly Tech
STM
Smyrna
Newark Charter
Charter
STE
St Georges

 

[302Boost]

Is seeding done with a point index like football or is it done some other way?

 

[84rider]

Conference champs that have won over .500 of their matches.

At large is based on:
2 pts for a win
0 pts for a lose
1 pt bonus for beating a team with a .501 record
Additional 1 pt for beating a team with a .701 record
Ties go to head to head competition, if the teams haven’t played each other it then goes to win/loss percentage against common opponents

Not sure if I missed anything

 

[delawarenole]

Conference champs that have won over .500 of their matches.

At large is based on:
2 pts for a win
0 pts for a lose
1 pt bonus for beating a team with a .501 record
Additional 1 pt for beating a team with a .701 record
Ties go to head to head competition, if the teams haven’t played each other it then goes to win/loss percentage against common opponents

Not sure if I missed anything

Rider what conferences are auto bids? I took a guess above but not sure.

 

[84rider]

Blue Hen,Henlopen, Indepedent & Diamond.

 

[84rider]

Conferences must have at least 5 schools that play and Conference winners must have an overall record of above.500

 

[84rider]

Non Conference schools for Lacrosse are:
Sallies
Caravel
St Marks
Delmarva Christian

Non Conference doesn’t have a auto-bid since there is only 4 participants not 5

 

[84rider]

As of right now the Conference bids would be

CR - Henlopen
DMA - Diamond
either Appo or Mt P - BH
Friends- Indy

BH is kinda jumbled right now

 

[84rider]

I believe all of the above is correct, please feel free to check it out.

 

[DEHSFan22]

Appo has BH bid locked up

 

[84rider]

Appo lost to DMA last night 15-8, not sure it’s locked up

 

[84rider]

Mt P is 7-4
Appo is 5-4
Concord is 5-4

Appo still has Cape, Archmere & Dover which will be good games. They also have Newark, WP & Middletown. If they lose the 3 tough games and slip up against one of the weaker teams they have left that would put them at .500, so definitely not a lock

 

[84rider]

Mt P has lake forest, MOT,Concord and Brandy, just saying

 

[DEHSFan22]

Mount lost to Hodgson, no wins guaranteed for them.

Appo is at 5 wins with 2 guaranteed wins left, probably 2 more losses. If they win one of their games vs Dover or Middletown, they get the bid.

It's a lock.

Mount and Concord are not good teams, you can't make any assumptions about any of their upcoming games, while Appo is guaranteed to beat Newark and Penn which gets them to 7 needing one more and having swept the actual blue hen games.

 

[DEHSFan22]

Also, St.Andrews got in at 5-10 once with the same seeding system. Tower Hill isn't dead yet.

With their strength of schedule they are basically a 10 win blue hen team getting a point per game.

 

[delawarenole]

Also, St.Andrews for in at 5-10 once witching the same seeding system. Tower Hill isn't dead yet.

With their strength of schedule they are basically a 10 win blue hen team getting a point per game.

Appo will be in but a low seed this year - probably 10-14.

Tower Hill not out yet due to strength of schedule but I have seen them play dont think they make it. Only definite win IMO is Conrad. Friends, Sanford, Cape and Archmere. They are 4-6 right now and need ~ 4 wins to get in (maybe 3 and go with a 7-9 record due to points). But reality is from what I have see of TH I dont see 3 wins left on that schedule.

Cape - L
Friends - L
Archmere - L
Conrad - W
Sanford - Toss Up.

6-7 wins at best this year.

St Andrews is definitely in from what I can see so far.

 

[delawarenole]

So updated my list with most recent games again:

Definitely In (>%90 chance) = 7 Teams, moving Appo up as I do think they get the BH bid. Think they only win 8-9 games though so close.

Salesianum
CR (Henlopen Champ)
Friends (Independent Champ)
DMA
Archmere (Diamond StateChamp)
Cape
Appo (Blue Hen Champ)

Probably In (>%75 chance) = 6 Teams, honestly barring one of them taking a total dump these team are all pretty much in. Seeding is all that is really changing.

Dover
MOT Charter
Milford
St Andrews
Caravel
Tatnall

Bubble Teams (%50/%50) = Leaves 3 teams out of this group to make it, I put the 3 in bold I think make it. But Sanford could easily get in via bonus points as I susptect they will flucuate as the season ends - some drop to 1 point some get 2 points insted of 1, etc.

Conrad
Sanford
Poly Tech
Smyrna
Charter
Newark Charter
St Georges
Mount Pleasant
St Marks
Tower Hill - Just looked at this one and they will have some thing like 15-18 bonus points. If they get to 7 wins they wiill make it into the tournament. Charter is in the same boat reason I pick them is I think they do get to 7. I dont see TH getting 3 more wins.

I am a dork and kep a spreadsheet that I use to make these guess I think it is pretty accurate but I am sure I will miss on one or two teams.

 

[delawarenole]

Think Caravel locked up a berth last night as they have 10 wins now and should beat Red Lion. So mnimum 11-4 and will have like 8 or 10 bnus points. Game against Smyrna and Dover would be to get a better seed.

St Andrews beat Friends was a bit surprised by that.

Think only Blue Hen team to make it is Appo

Think Charter will make it in even with a losing record due to crazy bonus points.

Tournament basically is Independent, Henlopen and Diamond conferences plus Appo, Sallies and Caravel.

Does anyone know if the website4sports converts all the standings into the Index? I remmember it from somewhere last year.

 

[MightyMik]

Not sure if it changed this year but before there were only two auto bids for lacrosse in DE, Henlopen and independent. Not sure that changed in recent years.
Caravel is in this year as they will finish with at least 12 wins. Charter could sneak in with the diamond state conference schedule because most of those teams will have 11 wins which gives them 2 points for those games.
Season will be like last season and teams 13-16 will be decided on last day.

 

[DEHSFan22]

Appo 10 Archmere 9 2OT

 

[delawarenole]

Appo 10 Archmere 9 2OT

Was there watching great game.

 

[DEHSFan22]

Sanford rolled St. Andrews 17-9

 

[laxgod]

very suprised! what happened nole?

 

[DEHSFan22]

Archmere looked slow, were just forcing skips and feeds to crease against the Appo zone. Archmere had a few chances, Moyer hit a pipe on a wide open goal right before Appos GW.

Appo was ahead with under a minute in the 4th and could've won in regulation but #7 from archmere had a CT which ended up leading to the game tying goal.

Both OT periods were a bunch of missed chances by both and Appo trying to dodge through too many people.

Archmere had every chance to win.

 

[delawarenole]

Agree Archmere looked slow and Appo had some nice shots by Connor Garrison. Game sould have been over in regulation Appo had the ball with less then a minute forced it and Archmere took it down and scored.

Archmere hit the pipe in OT then Appo got a fastbreak and ended it.

 

[delawarenole]

Updated list through 5/12

Definitely In (>%90 chance) = 15 Teams

1 - Salesianum
2 - CR (Henlopen Champ)
3 - DMA
4 - Cape
5 - Archmere (Diamond StateChamp)
6 - Friends (Independent Champ)Appo (Blue Hen Champ)
7 - St AndrewsCaravel
8 - Appo
9 - Charter
10 - Caravel
11 - MOT Charter
12 - Sanford
13 - Dover
14 - Milford
15 - Tatnall

Bubble Teams (%50/%50) = Leaves 1 team out of this group for the #16 seed.

Lake Forrest
16 - Smyrna -- I predict a win over STG and loss to Caravel to earn 16th seed.
Tower Hill

So its really down to last team in and seeding (I attempted but wth out of state some teams trying to get win #8 or #11 it ca change significantlly. Also some ties in the #'s I see and I have no idea how to break the ties so seeds could shift 1 or 2 slots)

 

[delawarenole]

Updated list through 5/12

Definitely In (>%90 chance) = 15 Teams

1 - Salesianum
2 - CR (Henlopen Champ)
3 - DMA
4 - Cape
5 - Archmere (Diamond StateChamp)
6 - Friends (Independent Champ)Appo (Blue Hen Champ)
7 - St AndrewsCaravel
8 - Appo
9 - Charter
10 - Caravel
11 - MOT Charter
12 - Sanford
13 - Dover
14 - Milford
15 - Tatnall

Bubble Teams (%50/%50) = Leaves 1 team out of this group for the #16 seed.

Lake Forrest
16 - Smyrna -- I predict a win over STG and loss to Caravel to earn 16th seed.
Tower Hill

So its really down to last team in and seeding (I attempted but wth out of state some teams trying to get win #8 or #11 it ca change significantlly. Also some ties in the #'s I see and I have no idea how to break the ties so seeds could shift 1 or 2 slots)

Does anyone know what happens to any games not made up by Saturday- do they just cancel them and adjust the index formula? So for example STE vs Brandywine rescheduled for Monday so would each team only use 14 games in the index instead of 15 and for purpose of bonus points use thier records as of Saturday?

Some teams are gonna get screwed by that as there are 6 or 7 teams that need 1 win to get to 8. If they don’t play their opponents are going to lose the points.

 

[84rider]

I believe , if the cancellations are due to weather or circumstances beyond a teams control, the DIAA will make adjustments and use the games played, index points divided by games played. They will not make changes if the games weren’t played due to scheduling by the school.

 

[1987lax]

Sallies at CR tomorrow (17th) at 5:30. Will resume game from 3rd Q

 

[delawarenole]

Sallies at CR tomorrow (17th) at 5:30. Will resume game from 3rd Q

Really doesnt matter they are from what I can tell #1 & #2 but would be fun to finish and if CR stays close it will give them some momentum into the tournament.

 

[MightyMik]

Sallies vs CR to resume with 8:15 left in 3rd tonight.

 

[Chesdel]

What is the score at this point?

 

[laxgod15]

What is the score at this point?

8-5 sals

 

[DEHSFan22]

Bracket is out!

1 Sals
2 CR
3 DMA
4 Cape
5 AA
6 WFS
7 Appo
8 Milf
9 St.A
10 Dover
11 Tat
12 Cara
13 Sanf
14 CSW
15 MOT
16 Smy

 

[delawarenole]

Bracket is out!

1 Sals
2 CR
3 DMA
4 Cape
5 AA
6 WFS
7 Appo
8 Milf
9 St.A
10 Dover
11 Tat
12 Cara
13 Sanf
14 CSW
15 MOT
16 Smy

Hey I wasnt that far off!

Sanford vs Cape is an intersting game. Archmere vs Caravel seems intersting, will find out how real Caravel is.

Friends vs Tatnall a good game too.

 

[bhens20]

Bracket is out!

1 Sals
2 CR
3 DMA
4 Cape
5 AA
6 WFS
7 Appo
8 Milf
9 St.A
10 Dover
11 Tat
12 Cara
13 Sanf
14 CSW
15 MOT
16 Smy

Although DMA is a 3 seed, undeserved in my opinion, I can't imagine them getting past Friends in the second round. I predict a final 4 of Sals v Cape and CR v Friends with Sals taking down CR in the championship. Doesn't look like this is a year for any major upsets besides DMA falling early.

 

[DEHSFan22]

I think the final 4 seems to be clear, Sals, CR, Cape and WFS